中国碳强度关键影响因子的机器学习识别及其演进

碳强度影响因子数量众多,通过在众多因子中评估其重要性以识别出关键影响因子进而解析碳强度关键因子的变化规律,是中国2030年碳强度能否实现比2005年下降60%~65%目标的科学基础。传统的回归分析方法对于评估众多因子的重要性存在多重共线性等问题,而机器学习处理海量数据则具有较好的稳健性等优点。本文从能源结构、产业结构、技术进步和居民消费等方面选取了56个中国碳强度影响因子指标,采用随机森林算法基于信息熵评估了1980-2014年逐年各项因子的重要性,通过指标数量与信息熵的对应关系统一筛选出每年重要性最大的前22个指标作为相应年度关键影响因子,最终依据关键影响因子的变化趋势划分了3个阶段作了演进分析。结果发现：1980-1991年,碳强度的关键因子主要以高耗能产业规模及占比、化石能源占比和技术进步为主;1992-2007年,中国经济进入快车道增长时期,服务业占比和化石能源价格对碳强度的影响作用开始显现,居民传统消费的影响作用在增大;2008年全球金融危机后,中国进入经济结构深化调整时期,节能减排力度大大增强,新能源占比和居民新兴消费的影响作用迅速显现。为实现2030年碳强度下降60%~65%目标,优化能源结构和产业结构,促进技术进步,提倡绿色消费,强化政策调控是未来需要采取的主要措施。     

NAOC 1m反射望远镜CCD相机的性能研究

研究了国家天文台兴隆观测基地1m反射望远镜新安装的VersArray1340×1300BCCD照相机的性能。它有几乎没有图案的良好本底（bias），极低的读出噪声和暗流。用平场序列露光来检测其线性时，能得到线性良好的转移曲线（transfercurve）。但是，不论在平场露光（面光源）还是在恒星（点光源）的观测中，当像元值约高于55000adu时（增益3．7e^-／adu），都会产生溢出。此时CCD并未满井。因此，使用它做点扩散函数分析研究时，要避免使用太亮的星像。不过，由于电荷守恒原理，对产生溢出的孤立亮星像，仍然可以做孔径测光。此外，该相机的快门函数也已测定。     

基于POM模式与blending同化法建立中国近海潮汐模型

利用POM海洋数值模式建立了中国近海（2°N-41°N，99°E～132°E）分辨率为5′×5′的潮汐模型，模式采用blending同化法同化了由10年TOPEX／Poseidon测高数据反演的潮汐参数与沿岸52个验潮站观测。精度分析表明建立的潮汐模型的8分潮RSS为12．5cm。     

Coupled surface water–groundwater model and its application in the arid Shiyang River basin,China

The planning and management of water resources in the Shiyang River basin, China require a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream use on water supply reliabilities and improving many environment‐related problems such as soil desertification induced by recent water‐related human activities. A coupled model, integrating rule‐based lumped surface water model and distributed three‐dimensional groundwater flow model, has been established to investigate surface water and groundwater management scenarios that may be designed to restore the deteriorated ecological environment of the downstream portion of the Shiyang River basin. More than 66% of the water level among 24 observation wells have simulation error less than 1·0 m. The overall trend of the temporal changes of simulated and observed surface runoff at the Caiqi gauging station remains almost the same. The calibration was considered satisfactory. Initial frameworks for water allocation, including agricultural water‐saving projects, water diversion within the basin and inter‐basin water transfer, reducing agricultural irrigation area and surface water use instead of groundwater exploitation at the downstream were figured out that would provide a rational use of water resources throughout the whole basin. Sixteen scenarios were modelled to find out the most appropriate management strategies. The results showed that in the two selected management options, the groundwater budget at the Minqin basin was about 1·4 × 10⁸ m³/a and the ecological environment would be improved significantly, but the deficit existed at the Wuwei basin and the number was about 0·8 × 10⁸ m³/a. Water demand for domestic, industry and urban green area would be met in the next 30 years, but the water shortage for meeting the demand of agricultural water use in the Shiyang River basin was about 2·2 × 10⁸ m³/a. It is suggested that more inter‐basin water transfer should be required to obtain sustainable water resource use in the Shiyang River basin. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

面向协同式森林灭火决策的领域本体构建及其解析

森林灭火决策的参与人员可能来自不同的组织、不同领域,他们有不同知识结构、专业背景、学识和各自的经验、偏好,这往往不利于决策过程中的交流、协同进行。本文把本体引入协同式森林灭火决策中,解决决策成员在协作中对他人所述的内容理解一致问题。分析了现有建立领域本体的主要方法,并借鉴软件开发的生命周期理论,提出建立面向森林火灾的领域本体的具体实现方法。以森林灭火决策为应用导向,通过对森林灭火决策的内容分析及与领域专家相互交流,根据领域中概念分类体系和概念的组合结构,从相关领域(林业、气象学、消防工程、地理学)抽象出概念术语集、关系集、函数集、规则集等,建立可共享、理解、重用、互操作的概念模型;利用本体建模工具,建立森林灭火本体库;设计与实现了本体的解析与可视化工具,用户可以交互式的查询术语的概念内涵,利用可视化工具,显示概念之间的关系。研究成果将为学科或领域间的高效协作打下通信与交流的基础,为林业、消防的信息化研究、林火本体服务提供可借鉴的框架和成果,为林火管理和应急指挥决策提供一个语义层级次上的重要途径。     

一种基于正交投影的波束形成算法

提出了一种基于正交投影的波束形成算法.首先由MVDR算法确定初始权向量;其次根据该权向量与其它用户波达角方向的关系,建立干扰信号的导向矢量矩阵;然后通过正交投影原理,将期望信号的导向矢量投影到干扰信号的零空间上,从而求得最优权值.仿真结果证明了该算法的有效性.     

交流数字伺服系统的智能PID控制律研究

智能PID是在结合传统的PID控制和人工智能的基础上形成的，针对交流伺服系统的要求，提出智能PID控制算法，旨在提高系统控制的精度，并从理论上对控制律进行了详细地分析。然后，在Matlab的环境下进行了系统仿真实验，从结果来看，控制策略用于交流伺服系统，能够得到一个较好的系统动、静态性能，从而获得一个较好的控制品质。     

Rotary spectrum analysis of tidal current in the southern Yellow Sea

A complete set of one-month Acoustic Doppler Profiler (ADP) current data at a station in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS) is analyzed using the rotary spectrum method. The results revealed different rotary properties between barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents. The barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents rotate elliptically counter-clockwise and clockwise, respectively. Meanwhile, baroclinic bottom tidal currents are almost along-isobath. The baroclinic cross-isobath velocities attenuate quickly at the bottom, implying important effects of bottom topography on the cross-isobath motions.     

Geochronology and Geochemistry of Ore-related Granitoids in the Giant Gariatong Rb Deposit, Tibet and Implications for Rb Metallogeny in China

Rubidium (Rb) deposits mostly occur in the South China and Central Asia orogenic belts and are often closely associated with highly differentiated granites. This study investigates a newly-discovered giant Rb deposit at Gariatong in the Central Lhasa terrane in Tibet. Detailed field studies and logging data revealed that the Rb mineralization mainly occurs in monzogranite and is related to greisenization. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of zircon yielded ages of 19.1 ± 0.2 Ma and 19.0 ± 0.2 Ma for greisenized monzogranite and fresh monzogranite, respectively. The monzogranites are characterized as strongly peraluminous, with high contents of SiO2, Al2O3, K2O and Na2O as well as a high differentiation index. They are enriched in light rare earth and large ion lithophile elements with signi?cant negative Eu anomalies and depleted high field-strength elements. Petrological and geochemical features of these ore-related monzogranites suggest that they are highly fractionated S-type granites, derived from remelting of crustal materials in a post-collisional setting. The geochemistry of zircon and apatite points to a low oxygen fugacity of the ore-related monzogranite during the magma’s evolution. The discovery of the Gariatong Rb deposit suggests that the Central Lhasa terrane may be an important region for rare metal mineralization.