Gray swans: comparison of natural and financial hazard assessment and mitigation

Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated.     

Forecasting hurricane-induced power outage durations

Accurate estimates of the duration of power outages caused by hurricanes prior to landfall are valuable for utility companies and government agencies that wish to plan and optimize their restoration efforts. Accurate pre-storm estimates are also important information for customers and operators of other infrastructures systems, who rely heavily on electricity. Traditionally, utilities make restoration plans based on managerial judgment and experience. However, skillful outage forecast models are conducive to improved decision-making practices by utilities and can greatly enhance storm preparation and restoration management procedures of power companies and emergency managers. This paper presents a novel statistical approach for estimating power outage durations that is 87 % more accurate than existing models in the literature. The power outage duration models are developed and carefully validated for outages caused by Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, and Ivan in a central Gulf Coast state. This paper identifies the key variables in predicting hurricane-induced outage durations and their degree of influence on predicting outage restoration for the utility company service area used as our case study.     

The Past,Present, and Future of Geodemographic Research in the United States and United Kingdom

This article presents an extensive comparative review of the emergence and application of geodemographics in both the United States and United Kingdom, situating them as an extension of earlier empirically driven models of urban socio-spatial structure. The empirical and theoretical basis for this generalization technique is also considered. Findings demonstrate critical differences in both the application and development of geodemographics between the United States and United Kingdom resulting from their diverging histories, variable data economies, and availability of academic or free classifications. Finally, current methodological research is reviewed, linking this discussion prospectively to the changing spatial data economy in both the United States and United Kingdom.     

Membrane Interface Probe Protocol for Contaminants in Low‐Permeability Zones

Accurate characterization of contaminant mass in zones of low hydraulic conductivity (low k) is essential for site management because this difficult‐to‐treat mass can be a long‐term secondary source. This study developed a protocol for the membrane interface probe (MIP) as a low‐cost, rapid data‐acquisition tool for qualitatively evaluating the location and relative distribution of mass in low‐k zones. MIP operating parameters were varied systematically at high and low concentration locations at a contaminated site to evaluate the impact of the parameters on data quality relative to a detailed adjacent profile of soil concentrations. Evaluation of the relative location of maximum concentrations and the shape of the MIP vs. soil profiles led to a standard operating procedure (SOP) for the MIP to delineate contamination in low‐k zones. This includes recommendations for: (1) preferred detector (ECD for low concentration zones, PID or ECD for higher concentration zones); (2) combining downlogged and uplogged data to reduce carryover; and (3) higher carrier gas flow rate in high concentration zones. Linear regression indicated scatter in all MIP‐to‐soil comparisons, including R² values using the SOP of 0.32 in the low concentration boring and 0.49 in the high concentration boring. In contrast, a control dataset with soil‐to‐soil correlations from borings 1‐m apart exhibited an R² of ≥0.88, highlighting the uncertainty in predicting soil concentrations using MIP data. This study demonstrates that the MIP provides lower‐precision contaminant distribution and heterogeneity data compared to more intensive high‐resolution characterization methods. This is consistent with its use as a complementary screening tool.     

Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.     

Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM) In Rainwater,Southeastern North Carolina,USA

The abundance and optical characteristics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were determined in 120 rain samples collected in Wilmington, North Carolina, USA, between February 21, 2002 and August 11, 2003. All rainwater samples contained chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) as well as fluorescent compounds. The absorbance spectra of CDOM in the samples decreased exponentially with wavelength with little or no measurable absorbance past 550 nm. Fluorescence excitation emission spectra (EEMS) of the precipitation revealed the presence of four major peaks indicating both terrestrial and marine influences. There was a strong positive correlation between total integrated fluorescence and the absorbance coefficient at 300 nm in rainwater samples, suggesting that these optical properties are directly interrelated and that the compounds responsible for absorbance may be the same as those responsible for fluorescence. Air-mass back-trajectory analysis indicated elevated CDOM levels in continentally influenced rainwater relative to marine dominated events implying that anthropogenic and/or terrestrial sources are important contributors to CDOM levels in precipitation. The presence of highly absorbing and fluorescing CDOM in rainwater has significant ramifications in atmospheric chemistry and may play a previously unrecognized role in the wavelength dependent spectral attenuation of solar radiation by atmospheric waters.     

Quantification of the Attenuation of Storm Surge Components by a Coastal Wetland of the US Mid Atlantic

Coastal wetlands are receiving increased consideration as natural defenses for coastal communities from storm surge. However, there are gaps in storm surge measurements collected in marsh areas during extreme events as well as understanding of storm surge processes. The present study evaluates the importance and variation of different processes (i.e., wave, current, and water level dynamics with respect of the marsh topography and vegetation characteristics) involved in a storm surge over a marsh, assesses how these processes contribute to storm surge attenuation, and quantifies the storm surge attenuation in field conditions. During the Fall of 2015, morphology and vegetation surveys were conducted along a marsh transect in a coastal marsh located at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, mainly composed of Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens. Hydrodynamic surveys were conducted during two storm events. Collected data included wave characteristics, current velocity and direction, and water levels. Data analysis focused on the understanding of the cross-shore evolution of waves, currents and water level, and their influence on the overall storm surge attenuation. Results indicate that the marsh area, despite its short length, attenuates waves and reduces current velocity and water level. Tides have a dominant influence on current direction and velocity, but the presence of vegetation and the marsh morphology contribute to a strong reduction of current velocity over the marsh platform relative to the currents at the marsh front. Wave attenuation varies across the tide cycle which implies a link between wave attenuation and water level and, consequently, storm surge height. Storm surge reduction, here assessed through high water level (HWL) attenuation, is linked to wave attenuation across the front edge of the marsh; this positive trend highlights the reduction of water level height induced by wave setup reduction during wave propagation across the marsh front edge. Water level attenuation rates observed here have a greater range than the rates observed or modeled by other authors, and our results suggest that this is linked to the strong influence of waves in storm surge attenuation over coastal areas.