BP神经网络模型在重庆伏旱预测中的应用研究

采用气象要素定义伏旱指数，利用小波分析等方法分析重庆地区伏旱变化特征，最后采用BP神经网络模型对伏旱进行预测试验，结果表明，重庆伏旱变化具有明显的阶段性特征，而基于BP神经网络模型的伏旱预测模型预测效果良好，可以应用于实际预测。     

A Comparative Study of the Atmospheric Layers below First Lifting Condensation Level for Instantaneous Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorm Ocurence at Agartala(23°30′N,91°15′E) and Ranchi(23°14′N,85°14′E) of India

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埋藏条件下碳酸盐岩实验室溶蚀作用模拟的热力学模型与地质勘探方向——以陕甘宁盆地下奥陶统马家沟组第五段为例

陕甘宁盆地下奥陶统马家沟组五段为潮坪相碳酸盐岩夹蒸发盐沉积。马五段经历了多期复杂的成岩作用，其中溶蚀作用对马五段影响深刻。首次引用热力学理论对埋藏条件下碳酸盐岩溶蚀作用进行了理论分析和计算。其结果表明碳酸盐岩在埋藏成岩的不同温度压力条件下，酸性介质中溶解反应的吉布斯自由能均为负值，说明反应可自动向方解石、白云石溶解的方向进行，并随着温压的升高溶解的趋势增大，而且白云石溶解的趋势比方解石更大。碳酸盐岩溶蚀作用是受热力学规律支配的自然地质作用。碳酸盐岩溶蚀实验模拟的热力学数学模型对陕甘宁盆地油气田勘探具有重大的理论意义和实际应用价值。     

THE RETREAT OF THE FOREST IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: A CARTOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT

Rapid deforestation is a major problem throughout the tropical world. The conditions and the pace under which societies and economies of the Third World are currently evolving and growing, combined with the specificities of tropical forests, render the latter increasingly vulnerable. Among the major tropical areas of the world, Southeast Asia is perhaps the one where these conditions have had the most impact on the retreat of the forest cover over the last quarter of this century. This is illustrated through the presentation of two maps of the distribution of five basic forest formations in Southeast Asia circa 1970 and circa 1990. The maps are examined and compared, as well as confronted with statistical assessments of deforestation. Finally, the complex causes behind the retreat of the tropical forests as well as the implications of this retreat are briefly discussed.     

Primary minerals of Zn-Pb mining and metallurgical dumps and their environmental behavior at Plombières,Belgium

The primary phases and minerals of the Plombières dumps include typical smelting furnace products such as metallic Fe, Pb, Cu, Zn, Fe-Zn alloys, carbides, phosphides, sulfides of Fe, Zn, Pb, Cu, Mn (alabandite), and FeAs. Spinels, mainly of Fe and Al, are common constituents of the primary assemblage; substitution by Zn, V, Cr, Ti, Mg, and Ca occurs. Primary phases also include the most common Zn-rich fayalite, Zn-rich Ca-Fe silicates, melilite, corundum, and apatite. Most of the Zn is incorporated in iron silicates, ZnO and ZnS. Lead occurs mainly as PbS, metallic lead, and is also present in coal residues. Cadmium is found mainly in metallic zinc and its alloys and in ZnO. The dumps also contain mining wastes composed of pyrite, melnikovite, and iron oxides produced by natural weathering of Zn-Pb ores. Melnikovite and iron oxides are rich in As, Pb, and Zn and possess an increased content of Tl. Leaching tests carried out on the surfaces of polished sections indicate that acid rain (solutions I and II) will mobilize mainly Zn and Cd and, to a much smaller extent, Pb and Sb. Leaching of metals by sulfate-chloride fluids present in the pore network of dumps (solutions III, IV, and V) depends on the pH, which in the dumps is controlled by the proportion of carbonates to sulfides. The more acid fluids leach both sulfides and silicates.     

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Hydroelectric Reservoirs in Tropical Regions

This paper discusses emissions by power-dams in the tropics. Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical power-dams are produced underwater through biomass decomposition by bacteria. The gases produced in these dams are mainly nitrogen, carbon dioxide and methane. A methodology was established for measuring greenhouse gases emitted by various power-dams in Brazil. Experimental measurements of gas emissions by dams were made to determine accurately their emissions of methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) gases through bubbles formed on the lake bottom by decomposing organic matter, as well as rising up the lake gradient by molecular diffusion.The main source of gas in power-dams reservoirs is the bacterial decomposition (aerobic and anaerobic) of autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter that basically produces CO₂ and CH₄. The types and modes of gas production and release in the tropics are reviewed.     

Evolution of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy

In the present paper the morphodynamics of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy, is analysed by comparing data gathered during two different surveys carried out in 1991 and 2001, respectively. In particular, a morphometric analysis on the most recent data and a qualitative analysis of the differences between bottom bedform patterns, are carried out. At locations characterised by greater depths, only minor changes to the planimetric configuration of the field, i.e. crest orientation (which is seen to be orthogonal to the direction of net gross sand transport) and wave length are observed, while differences in wave length and crest direction are more evident in more shallow areas. On the other hand, wave height has significantly increased in the whole field. A possible explanation of such a change, based on the previsions of a theory which relates sand-wave growth and migration to the main components of the tidal ellipse, is provided.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Seismic activity at the MCT in Sikkim Himalaya

A microearthquake survey in the Sikkim Himalaya raised a question whether the north–south segment of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) in this part of the Himalaya is seismically active(?). Fault-plane solution of a cluster of events occurred below this segment of the MCT shows right-lateral strike-slip motion. The seismic observations and the geological evidences suggest that a NNE–SSW trending strike-slip fault, beneath this segment, caused right lateral movement on the MCT, and is seismically active.