Global assessments of the NCEP Ensemble Forecast System using altimeter data

Ocean Dynamics - Forecasts of 10-m wind (U10) and significant wave height (Hs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecast System are evaluated using altimeter...     

Probabilistic models for structures with bilinear demand-intensity relationships

An extension to the existing SAC/FEMA expressions to estimate mean annual frequency of exceedance (MAFE) for a given limit state is described. In specific, this study pertains to structural systems whose demand versus seismic intensity relationship cannot be reasonably represented by a linear fit in logspace, but rather a bilinear fit over the entire range of structural response. Using a predefined limiting intensity, the median demand is separated into two distinct zones of response. These expressions are derived using a second-order polynomial hazard model fit and can be considered a further extension of the closed-form expressions available in the literature. The steps in the derivation are described along with an example application of the proposed expressions. Comparing different models shows that the MAFE can be significantly misrepresented when using a linear demand-intensity model for systems whose behaviour deviates from this assumption in logspace. Similarly, a logarithmic function demand-intensity fit is examined and seen not to be suitable in the specific situations focused on here. Furthermore, significant underestimation or overestimation is observed when using local fits in the vicinity of the behaviour transition point, which highlights the need for such a bilinear model when assessing the structural performance at the transition point's vicinity. Adopting a bilinear model is shown to better represent structural systems with complex response characteristics, also allowing the use of a single demand model for the entire range of response. This is at the same time still compatible with the existing framework for performance-based seismic design and assessment.     

The impact of internal waves on upper continental slopes: insights from the Mozambican margin (southwest Indian Ocean)

Evidences of sedimentation affected by oceanic circulation, such as nepheloid layers and contourites are often observed along continental slopes. However, the oceanographic processes controlling sedimentation along continental margins remain poorly understood. Multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution seismic reflection data revealed a contourite depositional system in the Mozambican upper continental slope composed of a contourite terrace (a surface with a gentle seaward slope dominated by erosion) and a plastered drift (a convex-shape sedimentary deposit). A continuous alongslope channel and a field of sand dunes (mainly migrating upslope), formed during Holocene, were identified in the contourite terrace at the present seafloor. Seismic reflection data of the water column show internal waves and boluses propagating in the pycnocline near the upper slope. The channel and the dunes are probably the result of the interaction of the observed internal waves with the seafloor under two different conditions. The alongslope channel is located in a zone where intense barotropic tidal currents may arrest internal solitary waves, generating a hydraulic jump and focused erosion. However, upslope migrating dunes may be formed by bottom currents induced by internal solitary waves of elevation propagating landwards in the pycnocline. These small-scale sedimentary features generated by internal waves are superimposed on large-scale contouritic deposits, such as plastered drifts and contourite terraces, which are related to geostrophic currents. These findings provide new insights into the oceanographic processes that control sedimentation along continental margins that will help interpretation of palaeoceanographic conditions from the sedimentary record. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Vertical deformation partitioning across a collapsing large and hot orogen

Featuring 3 000-km-long large and hot orogen, the Mantiqueira Province provides a rare opportunity to study the process of gravitational collapse at mid to deep crustal levels. Distinct but contemporary (~500 Ma) post-collisional intrusions show structures and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) fabrics related to their emplacements, recording different flow patterns. In southern deep-seated intrusions, ellipsoidal-shaped roots with gabbroic-to-hybrid cores surrounded by granitic rocks show concentric patterns of AMS fabrics that cut across the NE-trending regional foliation. In contrast, northern intrusions, exposed as the upper sections of batholith-size bodies of coarse-grained granite emplaced at the shallow to mid-crust, show general NS-trending magnetic fabrics roughly parallel to strike of the orogen and the regional foliation of host rocks. These contrasting magnetic patterns from shallow to deeper crust suggest vertical magma migration from the overthickened orogenic core to be emplaced across its thinner stretched flanks during the gravitational collapse of the orogenic edifice.