Options for monitoring and estimating historical carbon emissions from forest degradation in the context of REDD+

Measuring forest degradation and related forest carbon stock changes is more challenging than measuring deforestation since degradation implies changes in the structure of the forest and does not entail a change in land use, making it less easily detectable through remote sensing. Although we anticipate the use of the IPCC guidance under the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), there is no one single method for monitoring forest degradation for the case of REDD+ policy. In this review paper we highlight that the choice depends upon a number of factors including the type of degradation, available historical data, capacities and resources, and the potentials and limitations of various measurement and monitoring approaches. Current degradation rates can be measured through field data (i.e. multi-date national forest inventories and permanent sample plot data, commercial forestry data sets, proxy data from domestic markets) and/or remote sensing data (i.e. direct mapping of canopy and forest structural changes or indirect mapping through modelling approaches), with the combination of techniques providing the best options. Developing countries frequently lack consistent historical field data for assessing past forest degradation, and so must rely more on remote sensing approaches mixed with current field assessments of carbon stock changes. Historical degradation estimates will have larger uncertainties as it will be difficult to determine their accuracy. However improving monitoring capacities for systematic forest degradation estimates today will help reduce uncertainties even for historical estimates.     

Analysis of internal solitary waves observed in Davis Strait

Abstract

Current meters and a thermistor chain deployed in the proximity of a drill‐ship over the continental shelf off Baffin Island revealed the presence of large amplitude internal waves. This paper reviews the properties of the internal waves, observed to propagate away from the coast and to coincide with the local low water phase of the tide at the drill‐ship. The observations are considered in terms of internal solitary wave models. A detailed comparison is presented of wave properties with a long‐wave model incorporating continuous stratification and shear.     

Formation and evolution of sand deserts in Xinjiang,Northwest China：Ⅱ. The palaeo-environmental reconstruction

Based on the palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental evidences of geological history and human history periods, this paper reviews the researches and progresses on the development of the sandy deserts in Xinjiang. It pointed out that the features of tectonic structure in Xinjiang had made both the Tarim Basin and the Junggar Basin being influenced greatly by the foehn effects originated from the planetary wind system of westerly, the East Asian ocean-continental monsoon and the topographical mountain-valley winds. The regional patterns of climate and environment since the Quaternary were characterized by the overall persistent drought accompanied by fluctuations in the secondary scale. Formations of aeolian sediments in the basins and at the margins are a potential response to global climate change, particularly the aridification of the Asian hinterland deduced by the uprising of the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding highlands. For the question about the formation time of the Taklamakan Desert, because the research methods, objects and information carriers used in previous studies are different, there are many disputes in the academic circles at present. Evidences from aeolian deposits/rocks at the edge and in the hinterland of these sandy deserts and their chronological data indicate that an arid climate and land surface aeolian processes have occurred at the edge of the Tarim Basin and its hinterland areas since the Tertiary period. However, the duration time of these processes at mass scale should have begun after the middle Pleistocene and lasted to the Holocene. Occurrence of dune fields in recent 2000 years in the oasis areas should be greatly influenced by human factors.     

中国西北部新疆地区沙漠的形成与演化——Ⅱ.古环境重建(英文)

Based on the palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental evidences of geological history and human history periods, this paper reviews the researches and progresses on the development of the sandy deserts in Xinjiang. It pointed out that the features of tectonic structure in Xinjiang had made both the Tarim Basin and the Junggar Basin being influenced greatly by the foehn effects originated from the planetary wind system of westerly, the East Asian ocean-continental monsoon and the topographical mountain-valley winds. The regional patterns of climate and environment since the Quaternary were characterized by the overall persistent drought accompanied by fluctuations in the secondary scale. Formations of aeolian sediments in the basins and at the margins are a potential response to global climate change, particularly the aridification of the Asian hinterland deduced by the uprising of the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding highlands. For the question about the formation time of the Taklamakan Desert, because the research methods, objects and information carriers used in previous studies are different, there are many disputes in the academic circles at present. Evidences from aeolian deposits/rocks at the edge and in the hinterland of these sandy deserts and their chronological data indicate that an arid climate and land surface aeolian processes have occurred at the edge of the Tarim Basin and its hinterland areas since the Tertiary period. However, the duration time of these processes at mass scale should have begun after the middle Pleistocene and lasted to the Holocene. Occurrence of dune fields in recent 2000 years in the oasis areas should be greatly influenced by human factors.     

Unstable climate−growth relations for white spruce in southwest Yukon, Canada

We used dendroclimatology to quantify inter-annual to multi-decadal climatic variation effects on white spruce radial growth in southwest Yukon, Canada. Local climate is dry and cold, such that tree growth was primarily moisture- rather than temperature-limited, although the mechanisms varied temporally. During the 20th century, significant increases in precipitation countered warming temperatures, so that heat?moisture indices have not changed significantly. Directional climatic change, superimposed on variation due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), resulted in unstable climate?growth relations. Prior to 1977, ring widths were positively correlated with previous growing season precipitation and warm temperatures had a negative impact, exacerbating moisture limitations in dry years especially during the cool, dry negative PDO phase (1946?1976). After 1977, correlations with previous growing season precipitation became negative and correlations with previous fall and winter precipitation and current year July and August temperatures became positive, although not statistically significant. These changes suggest precipitation and temperature increases over recent decades benefitted white spruce growth. Climate projections for this region include further temperature and precipitation increases, which may promote white spruce growth depending on the seasonality and interactions between temperature and precipitation. This study demonstrated the complexity of potential responses of white spruce to climate variation and change.     

Can radiative forcing be limited to 2.6 Wm−2 without negative emissions from bioenergy AND CO2 capture and storage?

Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in scenarios that reduce climate forcing to low levels such as 2.6 Wm^?2. In this paper we consider whether BECCS is essential to limiting radiative forcing (RF) to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 using the Global Change Assessment Model, a closely coupled model of biogeophysical and human Earth systems. We show that BECCS can potentially reduce the cost of limiting RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 but that a variety of technology combinations that do not include BECCS can also achieve this goal, under appropriate emissions mitigation policies. We note that with appropriate supporting land-use policies terrestrial sequestration could deliver carbon storage ranging from 200 to 700 PgCO₂-equiavalent over the 21st century. We explore substantial delays in participation by some geopolitical regions. We find that the value of BECCS is substantially higher under delay and that delay results in higher transient RF and climate change. However, when major regions postponed mitigation indefinitely, it was impossible to return RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100. Neither finite land resources nor finite potential geologic storage capacity represented a meaningful technical limit on the ability of BECCS to contribute to emissions mitigation in the numerical experiments reported in this paper.     

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.     

Pliocene volcano-tectonics and paleogeography of the Turkana Basin,Kenya and Ethiopia

The distribution of hominin fossil sites in the Turkana Basin, Kenya is intimately linked to the history of the Omo River, which affected the paleogeography and ecology of the basin since the dawn of the Pliocene. We report new geological data concerning the outlet channel of the Omo River between earliest Pliocene and final closure of the Turkana Basin drainage system in the latest Pliocene to earliest Quaternary. Throughout most of the Pliocene the Omo River entered the Turkana Basin from its source in the highlands of Ethiopia and exited the eastern margin of the basin to discharge into the Lamu embayment along the coast of the Indian Ocean. During the earliest Pliocene the river’s outlet was located in the northern part of the basin, where a remnant outlet channel is preserved in basalts that pre-date eruption of the Gombe flood basalt between 4.05 and 3.95 Ma. The outlet channel was faulted down to the west prior to 4.05 Ma, forming a natural dam behind which Lake Lonyumun developed. Lake Lonyumun was drained between 3.95 and 3.9 Ma when a new outlet channel formed north of Loiyangalani in the southeastern margin of the Turkana Basin. That outlet was blocked by Lenderit Basalt lava flows between 2.2 and 2.0 Ma. Faulting that initiated either during or shortly after eruption of the Lenderit Basalt closed the depression that is occupied by modern Lake Turkana to sediment and water.Several large shield volcanoes formed east of the Turkana Basin beginning by 2.5–3.0 Ma, volcanism overlapping in time, but probably migrating eastward from Mount Kulal on the eastern edge of the basin to Mount Marsabit located at the eastern edge of the Chalbi Desert. The mass of the volcanic rocks loaded and depressed the lithosphere, enhancing subsidence in a shallow southeast trending depression that overlay the Cretaceous and Paleogene (?) Anza Rift. Subsidence in this flexural depression guided the course of the Omo River towards the Indian Ocean, and also localized accumulations of lava along the margins of the shield volcanoes. Lava flows at Mount Marsabit extended across the Omo River Valley after 1.8–2.0 Ma based on estimated ages of fossils in lacustrine and terrestrial deposits, and possibly by as early as 2.5 ± 0.3 Ma based on dating of a lava flow. During the enhanced precipitation in latest Pleistocene and earliest Holocene (11–9.5 ka) this flexural depression became the site of Lake Chalbi, which was separated from Lake Turkana by a tectonically controlled drainage divide.     

Optimised Ferrozine Micro‐Method for the Determination of Ferrous and Ferric Iron in Rocks and Minerals

The ferrozine wet chemical method was optimised for the determination of the total iron content and speciation in small geological samples. The ferrozine micro‐method involves dissolution by a mixture of HF and H₂SO₄ followed by spectrophotometric analysis using the complexing agent ferrozine. The method was tested for twenty‐one replicates of eight rock RMs using test portions of 5–14 mg and containing 0.37–5.45 mg total Fe and more than 0.29 mg Fe(II). The optimised ferrozine method was accurate to within 0.23% m/m FeO and 0.34% m/m total Fe, which compares favourably to other wet chemical methods.     

Beyond individual quotas: The role of trust and cooperation in promoting stewardship of five Australian abalone fisheries

Private property rights, such as individual transferable quotas, are thought to encourage fishers to act as resource stewards. To achieve this, however, fishers must be able to cooperate with each other. This paper examines the relationship between trust, cooperation and stewardship in five abalone (Haliotis) fisheries in southeastern Australia. Industry-led resource management initiatives are used as indicators of stewardship, sometimes including substantial sacrifice of catch quota. Higher levels of trust and cooperative capacity enabled greater levels of industry-based resource management in four of the five fisheries. In one case, however, high levels of trust and cooperative capacity did not translate into associated levels of resource management. It is suggested that additional factors, such as perceptions of resource condition, are key determinants of resource stewardship. Private property rights may, therefore, be less important than previously argued.