Towards an operational use of space imagery for oil pollution monitoring in the Mediterranean basin: a demonstration in the Adriatic Sea

Studies of operational pollution carried out by European commission - Joint Research Centre in the Mediterranean Sea for the years 1999-2004 are briefly introduced. The specific analysis of the Adriatic Sea for the same period demonstrates that this area has been characterized by a relevant number of illegal discharges from ships. After setting the historical background of the project AESOP (aerial and satellite surveillance of operational pollution in the Adriatic Sea), the content, partners and aim of the project are presented. Finally, the results of the first phase of the AESOP project are presented. The results seem very encouraging. For the first time in the Adriatic, real time detection of oil spills in satellite images and an immediate verification by the Coast Guard has been undertaken. An exploratory activity has also been carried out in collaboration with the University of Ljubljana to use automatic information system (AIS) to identify the ships detected in the satellite images.     

Ocean/ice shelf interaction in the southern Weddell Sea: results of a regional numerical helium/neon simulation

Ocean/ice interaction at the base of deep-drafted Antarctic ice shelves modifies the physical properties of inflowing shelf waters to become Ice Shelf Water (ISW). In contrast to the conditions at the atmosphere/ocean interface, the increased hydrostatic pressure at the glacial base causes gases embedded in the ice to dissolve completely after being released by melting. Helium and neon, with an extremely low solubility, are saturated in glacial meltwater by more than 1000%. At the continental slope in front of the large Antarctic caverns, ISW mixes with ambient waters to form different precursors of Antarctic Bottom Water. A regional ocean circulation model, which uses an explicit formulation of the ocean/ice shelf interaction to describe for the first time the input of noble gases to the Southern Ocean, is presented. The results reveal a long-term variability of the basal mass loss solely controlled by the interaction between waters of the continental shelf and the ice shelf cavern. Modeled helium and neon supersaturations from the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf front show a “low-pass” filtering of the inflowing signal due to cavern processes. On circumpolar scales, the simulated helium and neon distributions allow us to quantify the ISW contribution to bottom water, which spreads with the coastal current connecting the major formation sites in Ross and Weddell Seas.

Construction of the granitoid crust of an island arc. Part II: a quantitative petrogenetic model

Results of simple model calculations that integrate cumulate compositions from the Kohistan arc terrain are presented in order to develop a consistent petrogenetic model to explain the Kohistan island arc granitoids. The model allows a quantitative approximation of the possible relative roles of fractional crystallization and assimilation to explain the silica-rich upper crust composition of oceanic arcs. Depending in detail on the parental magma composition hydrous moderate-to-high pressure fractional crystallization in the lower crust/upper mantle is an adequate upper continental crust forming mechanism in terms of volume and compositions. Accordingly, assimilation and partial melting in the lower crust is not per se a necessary process to explain island arc granitoids. However, deriving few percent of melts using low degree of dehydration melting is a crucial process to produce volumetrically important amounts of upper continental crust from silica-poorer parental magmas. Even though the model can explain the silica-rich upper crustal composition of the Kohistan, the fractionation model does not predict the accepted composition of the bulk continental crust. This finding supports the idea that additional crustal refining mechanism (e.g., delamination of lower crustal rocks) and/or non-cogenetic magmatic process were critical to create the bulk continental crust composition.     

Vulnerabilities and migration in Small Island Developing States in the context of climate change

The unique characteristics of Small Island Developing States and structural vulnerabilities they face in terms of development have earned them particular consideration in the development agenda. This article sheds light on some of the vulnerabilities that these countries face, making particular reference to their environmental and economic vulnerabilities. It then highlights the ambiguous role that international migration plays in the recreation of those vulnerabilities.     

Ensemble filter methods with perturbed observations applied to nonlinear problems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been shown repeatedly to be an effective method for data assimilation in large-scale problems, including those in petroleum engineering. Data assimilation for multiphase flow in porous media is particularly difficult, however, because the relationships between model variables (e.g., permeability and porosity) and observations (e.g., water cut and gas–oil ratio) are highly nonlinear. Because of the linear approximation in the update step and the use of a limited number of realizations in an ensemble, the EnKF has a tendency to systematically underestimate the variance of the model variables. Various approaches have been suggested to reduce the magnitude of this problem, including the application of ensemble filter methods that do not require perturbations to the observed data. On the other hand, iterative least-squares data assimilation methods with perturbations of the observations have been shown to be fairly robust to nonlinearity in the data relationship. In this paper, we present EnKF with perturbed observations as a square root filter in an enlarged state space. By imposing second-order-exact sampling of the observation errors and independence constraints to eliminate the cross-covariance with predicted observation perturbations, we show that it is possible in linear problems to obtain results from EnKF with observation perturbations that are equivalent to ensemble square-root filter results. Results from a standard EnKF, EnKF with second-order-exact sampling of measurement errors that satisfy independence constraints (EnKF (SIC)), and an ensemble square-root filter (ETKF) are compared on various test problems with varying degrees of nonlinearity and dimensions. The first test problem is a simple one-variable quadratic model in which the nonlinearity of the observation operator is varied over a wide range by adjusting the magnitude of the coefficient of the quadratic term. The second problem has increased observation and model dimensions to test the EnKF (SIC) algorithm. The third test problem is a two-dimensional, two-phase reservoir flow problem in which permeability and porosity of every grid cell (5,000 model parameters) are unknown. The EnKF (SIC) and the mean-preserving ETKF (SRF) give similar results when applied to linear problems, and both are better than the standard EnKF. Although the ensemble methods are expected to handle the forecast step well in nonlinear problems, the estimates of the mean and the variance from the analysis step for all variants of ensemble filters are also surprisingly good, with little difference between ensemble methods when applied to nonlinear problems.     

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of a Páramo Ecosystem in the Northern Ecuadorian Andes 1988-2007

Páramo is a term used to describe tropical alpine vegetation between the continuous timberline and the snow line in the Northern Andes. Páramo environments provide important species habitat and ecosystem services. Changes in spatial extent of the páramo ecosystem at Pambamarca in the Central Cordillera of the northern Ecuadorian Andes were analysed using multi-temporal Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite data. The region suffered a loss of 1826.6 ha or 20% of the total area at a rate of 100 ha/annum during 1988-2007 period. It is found that permanent páramo cover decreased from 8350 ha in 1988 to 5864 ha in 2007 at a fairly constant rate(R2=0.94). This loss is attributed to expansion of commercial agriculture and floriculture in the valleys coupled with increased population pressure. Land at higher elevations has been cleared for small scale agriculture. Loss of the páramo ecosystem will exert a number of negative impacts on ecosystem services and livelihoods of the local population at Pambamarca.     

A high-resolution sedimentary archive from landslide-dammed Lake Mengda,north-eastern Tibetan Plateau

Lacustrine sediments have been widely used to investigate past climatic and environmental changes on millennial to seasonal time scales. Sedimentary archives of lakes in mountainous regions may also record non-climatic events such as earthquakes. We argue herein that a set of 64 annual laminae couplets reconciles a stratigraphically inconsistent accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) ¹⁴C chronology in a ~4-m-long sediment core from Lake Mengda, in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. The laminations suggest the lake was formed by a large landslide, triggered by the 1927 Gulang earthquake (M = 8.0). The lake sediment sequence can be separated into three units based on lithologic, sedimentary, and isotopic characteristics. Starting from the bottom of the sequence, these are: (1) unweathered, coarse, sandy valley-floor deposits or landslide debris that pre-date the lake, (2) landslide-induced, fine-grained soil or reworked landslide debris with a high organic content, and (3) lacustrine sediments with low organic content and laminations. These annual laminations provide a high-resolution record of anthropogenic and environmental changes during the twentieth century, recording enhanced sediment input associated with two phases of construction activities. The high mean sedimentation rates of up to 4.8 mm year^?1 underscore the potential for reconstructing such distinct sediment pulses in remote, forested, and seemingly undisturbed mountain catchments.     

Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis

Reviewing the existing studies of public perception and drawing analogies from other risk technologies, this paper explores the public positions on research and implementation of geoengineering as a means to combat climate change. Existing studies on geoengineering perceptions show low levels of awareness and a lack of knowledge. Hence, existing attitudes on geoengineering can be judged instable and stimulus-dependent. When judged in isolation, at least one third favors the use of geoengineering technologies preferring CDR over SRM technologies; when judged in comparison to other climate mitigation options, approval rates lose considerably support. Moreover, people seem to cautiously support research but oppose deployment while attitude formation depends on personal values and belief systems. The results of the empirical studies were fed into a Delphi workshop with experts for reflecting on the future development of public opinion and for designing a communication and public involvement process that corresponds to the empirical insights gained from the perception studies.     

Intraseasonal variability of sea level and circulation in the Gulf of Thailand: the role of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Intraseasonal variability of the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean is strongly related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Shallow seas in this region, such as the Gulf of Thailand, act as amplifiers of the direct ocean response to surface wind forcing by efficient setup of sea level. Intraseasonal ocean variability in the Gulf of Thailand region is examined using statistical analysis of local tide gauge observations and surface winds. The tide gauges detect variability on intraseasonal time scales that is related to the MJO through its effect on local wind. The relationship between the MJO and the surface wind is strongly seasonal, being most vigorous during the monsoon, and direction-dependent. The observations are then supplemented with simulations of sea level and circulation from a fully nonlinear barotropic numerical ocean model (Princeton Ocean Model). The numerical model reproduces well the intraseasonal sea level variability in the Gulf of Thailand and its seasonal modulations. The model is then used to map the wind-driven response of sea level and circulation in the entire Gulf of Thailand. Finally, the predictability of the setup and setdown signal is discussed by relating it to the, potentially predictable, MJO index.     

Is area affected by flood or stagnant water independently associated with poorer health outcomes in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas?

This study investigated the association of flood/stagnant water (FSW) with various health outcomes among respondents living in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas. We also assessed the differences of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics between the FSW-affected and non-affected areas. Bangladesh as a whole and slums in the megacity of Dhaka in particular are severely affected by the FSW. Data were collected from 3,207 subjects (aged 10+ years) through baseline surveys conducted in March 2008 and 2009. Twelve big slums in Dhaka and three adjacent villages were selected as study areas. Face-to-face interviews using a multidimensional pre-tested questionnaire were conducted by the trained university graduates. We performed various types of analyses ranging from the simple frequency analysis to the multivariable-adjusted logistic regression modelling. Our empirical findings suggest that slums were more affected by the FSW as compared to the rural areas. People living in the FSW-affected areas were more vulnerable in terms of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics than non-affected people. Age was also significantly associated with various health outcomes. According to multivariable analyses controlled for various factors, the FSW-affected people reported significantly higher likelihoods of health symptoms (namely fever, cold/cough, weakness), communicable diseases (namely diarrhoea and gastric disease) and poor mental well-being as compared to the non-affected people. Only the burden of non-communicable diseases was lower in the FSW-affected areas than the non-affected areas. Our findings lead us to conclude that the FSW-affected area is an independent risk factor for various physical and mental health problems. Urban slums are more affected than rural areas by the FSW. Therefore, we underscore the necessities of well-designed and comprehensive public health interventions focusing on individual, community and higher levels of interventions to reduce the FSW-related health and other consequences among the people living in the FSW-affected areas and urban slums in the rapidly growing city of Dhaka, Bangladesh.