Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE MEIYU/BAIU RAIN BELT AND THE PERIODIC NORTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TROPICAL WEST PACIFIC

In order to investigate the effect of the factors in tower latitudes on Meiyu/Baiu front,adiagnostic analysis for the two cases during June to July of 1985 and 1986 was examined.We foundthat (1)when the tropical convective activity moves westward to 10.5-15.5′N/140°E from eastside of 10.5-15.5°N/160°E,the northward shifts of the Meiyu/Baiu rain belt occurs;(2)themain factor which results in the northward and southward shifts of Meiyu/Baiu rain belt is thoughtas the 8,18 and 30 day oscillations of the tropical convective activity around West Pacific.Meanwhile,the wave train propagating from Lake Baikal via Okhotsk Sea to the tropics couldsometimes shift Baiu rain belt southward;(3)the onsets of Meiyu in China of both cases tend totake place just when the convective activity around lower latitudes moves westward through about140°E with the 8,18 and 30 day oscillation periods firstly coming to June.     

A study of subsolidus relations of the Skaergaard pyroxenes by analytical electron microscopy

Within augite and pigeonite grains of the Skaergaard ferrogabbro 4430, the Ca-poor phases contain only three mole percent of CaSiO₃, and the Mg-Fe partition coefficients between the Ca-poor and Ca-rich phases are extremely small with 0.46 for augite and 0.51 for pigeonite grains. These values indicate existence of diffusion within each grain (intragranular diffusion) at considerably low temperatures.The compositions are slightly but definitely different between the Ca-rich phases in augite and pigeonite grains as well as between the Ca-poor phases in augite and pigeonite grains. This indicates that the diffusion among the grains (inter-granular diffusion) has not taken place under the subsolidus condition of the Skaergaard intrusion.     

Molecular and isotopic characteristics of gas hydrate-bound hydrocarbons in southern and central Lake Baikal

We investigated the molecular composition (methane, ethane, and propane) and stable isotope composition (methane and ethane) of hydrate-bound gas in sediments of Lake Baikal. Hydrate-bearing sediment cores were retrieved from eight gas seep sites, located in the southern and central Baikal basins. Empirical classification of the methane stable isotopes (δ¹³C and δD) for all the seep sites indicated the dominant microbial origin of methane via methyl-type fermentation; however, a mixture of thermogenic and microbial gases resulted in relatively high methane δ¹³C signatures at two sites where ethane δ¹³C indicated a typical thermogenic origin. At one of the sites in the southern Baikal basin, we found gas hydrates of enclathrated microbial ethane in which ¹³C and deuterium were both highly depleted (mean δ¹³C and δD of –61.6‰ V-PDB and –285.4‰ V-SMOW, respectively). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of C₂ δ¹³C–δD classification for hydrate-bound gas in either freshwater or marine environments.     

Lidar Methods for Observing Mineral Dust

Lidar methods for observing mineral dust aerosols are reviewed.These methods include Mie scattering lidars,polarization lidars,Raman scattering lidars,high-spectral-resolution lidars,and fluorescence lidars.Some of the lidar systems developed by the authors and the results of the observations and applications are introduced.The largest advantage of the lidar methods is that they can observe vertical distribution of aerosols continuously with high temporal and spatial resolutions.Networks of ground-based lidars provide useful data for understanding the distribution and movement of mineral dust and other aerosols.The lidar network data are actually used for validation and assimilation of dust transport models,which can evaluate emission,transport,and deposition of mineral dust.The lidar methods are also useful for measuring the optical characteristics of aerosols that are essential to assess the radiative effects of aerosols.Evolution of the lidar data analysis methods for aerosol characterization is also reviewed.Observations from space and ground-based networks are two important approaches with the lidar methods in the studies of the effects of mineral dust and other aerosols on climate and the environment.Directions of the researches with lidar methods in the near future are discussed.     

Mobility-dependent response of aquatic animal species richness to a wetland network in an agricultural landscape

Management of wetland connectivity is important for biodiversity conservation. In the modern agricultural landscape, the natural connections between floodplain wetlands have been greatly altered. Agricultural ditches and channelized streams are widely distributed in floodplains, which may contribute to the maintenance of wetland connectivity and biodiversity. To determine how these watercourse networks affect wetland biodiversity, we examined the relationship between the species richness of aquatic animals and wetland connectivity, with a special focus on species mobility. From July to August 2011, fish and aquatic insects were collected from 24 wetlands in northern Japan. To determine the degree of wetland connectivity, we assessed the relative importance of individual wetlands in maintaining the entire wetland network using two connectivity indices: hydrologic connectivity via watercourses and spatial connectivity defined as Euclidian distances between wetlands using graph theory. We found that only high mobility groups of both taxa could enhance species richness in either a hydrologic (fish) or spatial (insect) wetland network. The species richness of insects with high-flying ability was found to increase as spatial connectivity increased. Furthermore, the species richness of fish with high-swimming ability was positively influenced by hydrologic connectivity, most likely because highly mobile species were able to reach suitable habitats and migrate from source populations in a wetland network owing to their good mobility. Our findings indicate that hydrologic network is important for maintaining biodiversity as well as spatial connectivity. It is important to focus conservation efforts on key wetlands with high hydrologic and spatial connectivity in future wetland management.     

Raman spectroscopic and calorimetric observations on natural gas hydrates with cubic structures I and II obtained from Lake Baikal

This study reports measurements of the Raman spectra of Lake Baikal gas hydrates and estimations of the hydration number of methane-rich samples. The hydration number of gas hydrates retrieved from the southern Baikal Basin (crystallographic structure I) was approx. 6.1. Consistent with previous results, the Raman spectra of gas hydrates retrieved from the Kukuy K-2 mud volcano in the central Baikal Basin indicated the existence of crystallographic structures I and II. Measurements of the dissociation heat of Lake Baikal gas hydrates by calorimetry (from the decomposition of gas hydrates to gas and water), employing the hydration number, revealed values of 53.7–55.5?kJ?mol^–1 for the southern basin samples (structure I), and of 54.3–55.5?kJ?mol^–1 for the structure I hydrates and 62.8–64.2?kJ?mol^–1 for the structure II hydrates from the Kukuy K-2 mud volcano.