The essential contribution of indigenous knowledge to understanding natural hazards and disaster risk: historical evidence from the Rwenzori (Uganda)

Natural Hazards - The integration of indigenous knowledge into understanding disasters from natural hazards is hitherto hampered by the limited conceptualization of the process that shapes...     

Microvertebrates from the Rhaetian basal bone bed of Saltford,near Bath,SW England

The famous Rhaetian bone bed (Late Triassic, 205 Ma) is well known because it marks a major switch in depositional environment from terrestrial red beds to fully marine conditions throughout the UK and much of Europe. The bone bed is generally cemented and less than 10 cm thick. However, we report here an unusual case from Saltford, near Bath, S.W. England where the bone bed is unconsolidated and up to nearly 1 m thick. The exposure of the basal beds of the Westbury Formation, Penarth Group includes a bone bed containing a diverse Rhaetian marine microvertebrate fauna dominated by sharks, actinopterygian fishes and reptiles. Despite the unusual sedimentary character of the bone bed, we find similar proportions of taxa as in other basal Rhaetian bone beds (55–59 % Lissodus teeth, 13–16 % Rhomphaiodon teeth, 12–14 % Severnichthys teeth, 6–9% Gyrolepis teeth, 3–4% undetermined sharks’ teeth, 1–3% undetermined bony fish teeth, and < 1% of each of Hybodus, Parascylloides, and Sargodon), the only differences being in the proportions of Rhomphaiodon teeth, which can represent 30–40 % of specimens elsewhere. This suggests that taphonomic bias of varying Rhaetian bone beds may be comparable despite different sedimentary settings, and that the proportions of taxa say something about their original proportions in the ecosystem.     

Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.     

Role of high- and low-frequency winds and wave reflection in the onset, growth and termination of the 1997–1998 El Niño

The present study aims at studying the role played by high-frequency wind variability, wave reflection and easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific in the onset, growth and termination phases of the 1997–1998 El Niño using the Trident intermediate coupled model and observations. While the anomalous strength of the trade winds in 1996 favored the initiation of a warm event in 1997 (via western Pacific boundary Rossby wave reflection), the actual timing of the onset and the amplitude of the event resulted from the large March 1997 wind event. Once initiated, high-frequency westerly winds strongly contributed to the rapid growth of the warm event and to the displacement of the eastern edge of the warm-pool. Moreover, both easterly and westerly high-frequency wind variability in 1997–1998 contributed to the amplitude of the event, set the evolution of the warm event and potentially influenced the equatorial Pacific conditions at least one year after the El Niño event. In addition, eastern boundary reflection also significantly contributed to the amplitude and duration of the warm event, whereas its termination was a combination of various factors: reflection of upwelling Rossby waves at the western boundary and large easterly wind anomalies observed in the western Pacific from November 1997 to early 1998. These factors were sufficient to terminate the event and to switch temperature anomalies from warm to cold. To conclude, understanding the coupling between the high- and low-frequency wind variability, i.e., studying ENSO as a multi-scale phenomenon, will certainly lead to a better comprehension of the diversity of its behavior and potentially to an improvement of its predictability.     

Patterns in the spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) revealed by spatially explicit fishing data

Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) stock abundance is tightly driven by the high and unpredictable variability of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. Management of the fishery therefore cannot rely on mid- or long-term management policy alone but needs to be adaptive at relatively short time scales. Regular acoustic surveys are performed on the stock at intervals of 2 to 4 times a year, but there is a need for more time continuous monitoring indicators to ensure that management can respond at suitable time scales. Existing literature suggests that spatially explicit data on the location of fishing activities could be used as a proxy for target stock distribution. Spatially explicit commercial fishing data could therefore guide adaptive management decisions at shorter time scales than is possible through scientific stock surveys. In this study we therefore aim to (1) estimate the position of fishing operations for the entire fleet of Peruvian anchovy purse–seiners using the Peruvian satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS), and (2) quantify the extent to which the distribution of purse–seine sets describes anchovy distribution. To estimate fishing set positions from vessel tracks derived from VMS data we developed a methodology based on artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a sample of fishing trips with known fishing set positions (exact fishing positions are known for approximately 1.5% of the fleet from an at-sea observer program). The ANN correctly identified 83% of the real fishing sets and largely outperformed comparative linear models. This network is then used to forecast fishing operations for those trips where no observers were onboard. To quantify the extent to which fishing set distribution was correlated to stock distribution we compared three metrics describing features of the distributions (the mean distance to the coast, the total area of distribution, and a clustering index) for concomitant acoustic survey observations and fishing set positions identified from VMS. For two of these metrics (mean distance to the coast and clustering index), fishing and survey data were significantly correlated. We conclude that the location of purse–seine fishing sets yields significant and valuable information on the distribution of the Peruvian anchovy stock and ultimately on its vulnerability to the fishery. For example, a high concentration of sets in the near coastal zone could potentially be used as a warning signal of high levels of stock vulnerability and trigger appropriate management measures aimed at reducing fishing effort.     

Sensitivity equations for hyperbolic conservation law-based flow models

The present paper focuses on the governing equations for the sensitivity of the variables to the parameters in flow models that can be described by one-dimensional scalar, hyperbolic conservation laws. The sensitivity is shown to obey a hyperbolic, scalar conservation law. The sensitivity is a conserved scalar except in the case of discontinuous flow solutions, where an extra, point source term must be added to the equations in order to enforce conservation. The propagation speed of the sensitivity waves being identical to that of the conserved variable in the original conservation law, the system of conservation laws formed by the original hyperbolic equation and the equation satisfied by the sensitivity is linearly degenerate. A consequence on the solution of the Riemann problem is that rarefaction waves for the variable of the original equation result in vacuum regions for the sensitivity. The numerical solution of the hyperbolic conservation law for the sensitivity by finite volume methods requires the implementation of a specific shock detection procedure. A set of necessary conditions is defined for the discretisation of the source term in the sensitivity equation. An application to the one-dimensional kinematic wave equation shows that the proposed numerical technique allows analytical solutions to be reproduced correctly. The computational examples show that first-order numerical schemes do not yield satisfactory numerical solutions in the neighbourhood of moving shocks and that higher-order schemes, such as the MUSCL scheme, should be used for sharp transients.     

Influence of the oceanic biology on the tropical Pacific climate in a coupled general circulation model

The influence of chlorophyll spatial patterns and variability on the tropical Pacific climate is investigated by using a fully coupled general circulation model (HadOPA) coupled to a state-of-the-art biogeochemical model (PISCES). The simulated chlorophyll concentrations can feedback onto the ocean by modifying the vertical distribution of radiant heating. This fully interactive biological-ocean-atmosphere experiment is compared to a reference experiment that uses a constant chlorophyll concentration (0.06 mg m⁻³). It is shown that introducing an interactive biology acts to warm the surface eastern equatorial Pacific by about 0.5°C. Two competing processes are involved in generating this warming: (a) a direct 1-D biological warming process in the top layers (0–30 m) resulting from strong chlorophyll concentrations in the upwelling region and enhanced by positive dynamical feedbacks (weaker trade winds, surface currents and upwelling) and (b) a 2-D meridional cooling process which brings cold off-equatorial anomalies from the subsurface into the equatorial mixed layer through the meridional cells. Sensitivity experiments show that the climatological horizontal structure of the chlorophyll field in the upper layers is crucial to maintain the eastern Pacific warming. Concerning the variability, introducing an interactive biology slightly reduces the strength of the seasonal cycle, with stronger SST warming and chlorophyll concentrations during the upwelling season. In addition, ENSO amplitude is slightly increased. Similar experiments performed with another coupled general circulation model (IPSL-CM4) exhibit the same behaviour as in HadOPA, hence showing the robustness of the results.     

Testing the genetic relationship between fluid alteration and brecciation in CM chondrites

Boriskino is a poorly studied CM chondrite with numerous millimeter‐ to centimeter‐scale clasts exhibiting sharp boundaries. Clast textures and mineralogies attest to diverse geological histories with various degrees of aqueous alteration. We conducted a petrographic, chemical, and isotopic study on each clast type of the breccia to investigate if there exists a genetic link between brecciation and aqueous alteration, and to determine the controlling parameter of the extent of alteration. Boriskino is dominated by CM2 clasts for which no specific petrographic type could be assigned based on the chemical compositions and modal abundances of constituents. One clast stands out and is identified as a CM1 lithology, owing to its lack of anhydrous silicates and its overall abundance of dolomite‐like carbonates and acicular iron sulfides. We observe that alteration phases near clast boundaries exhibit foliation features, suggesting that brecciation postdated aqueous alteration. We measured the O‐isotopic composition of Ca‐carbonates and dolomite‐like carbonates to determine their precipitation temperatures following the methodology of Verdier‐Paoletti et al. (2017). Both types of carbonates yield similar ranges of precipitation temperatures independent of clast lithology, ranging from ?13.9 ± 22.4 (2σ) to 166.5 ± 47.3 °C, precluding that temperature alone accounts for the differences between the CM1 and CM2 lithologies. Instead, we suggest that initial water/rock ratios of 0.75 and 0.61 for the CM1 and CM2 clasts, respectively, might control the extent of aqueous alteration. Based on these estimates, we suggest that Boriskino clasts originated from a single parent body with heterogeneous distribution of water either due to local differences in the material permeability or in the initial content of ice available. These conditions would have produced microenvironments with differing geochemical conditions thus leading to a range of degrees of aqueous alteration.     

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

The interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its influence on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South Pacific are investigated using observations and ERA40 reanalysis over the 1979?C2002 period. In austral summer, the SPCZ displays four typical structures at interannual timescales. The first three are characterized by a diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and account for 85% of the summer seasons. One is close to climatology and the other two exhibit a 3° northward or southward departure from the SPCZ climatological position. In contrast, the fourth one, that only encompasses three austral summer seasons (the extreme 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Ni?o events and the moderate 1991/1992 El Ni?o event), displays very peculiar behaviour where the SPCZ largely departs from its climatological position and is zonally oriented. Variability of the western/central Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) is shown to modulate moisture transport south of the equator, thereby strongly constraining the location of the SPCZ. The SPCZ location is also shown to strongly modulate the atmospheric circulation variability in the South Pacific with specific patterns for each class. However, independently of its wide year-to-year excursions, the SPCZ is always collocated with the zero relative vorticity at low levels while the maximum vorticity axis lies 6° to the south of the SPCZ position. This coherent atmospheric organisation in the SPCZ region is shown to constrain tropical cyclogenesis to occur preferentially within 10° south of the SPCZ location as this region combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favour the breeding of TCs. This analysis also reveals that cyclogenesis in the central Pacific (in the vicinity of French Polynesia) only occurs when the SPCZ displays a zonal orientation while this observation was previously attributed to El Ni?o years in general. Different characteristics of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Pacific equatorial warming are shown to impact differently on the SPCZ position, suggesting that for regional scales, such as the South Pacific, the SPCZ classification is more appropriate than a simple ENSO index to characterize TC interannual variability. These findings suggest that forecasting the strength of El Ni?o through SST variations in the eastern Pacific may not be sufficient to accurately predict cyclogenesis in the South Pacific, especially east of the dateline.