Rating curve uncertainty and change detection in discharge time series: case study with 44‐year historic data from the Nyangores River,Kenya

The intersection of the developing topic of rating curve and discharge series uncertainty with the topic of hydrological change detection (e.g., in response to land cover or climatic change) has not yet been well studied. The work herein explores this intersection, with consideration of a long‐term discharge response (1964–2007) for a ~650‐km² headwater basin of the Mara River in west Kenya, starting with stream rating and daily gauge height data. A rating model was calibrated using Bayesian methods to quantify uncertainty intervals in model parameters and predictions. There was an unknown balance of random and systemic error in rating data scatter (a scenario not likely unique to this basin), which led to an unknown balance of noise and information in the calibrated statistical error model. This had implications on testing for hydrological change. Overall, indications were that shifts in basin's discharge response were rather subtle over the 44‐year period. A null hypothesis for change using flow duration curves (FDCs) from four different 8‐year data intervals could be either accepted or rejected over much of the net flow domain depending on different applications of the statistical error model (each with precedence in the literature). The only unambiguous indication of change in FDC comparisons appeared to be a reduction in lowest baseflow in recent years (flows with >98% exceedance probability). We defined a subjective uncertainty interval based on an intermediate balance of random and systematic error in the rating model that suggested a possibility of more prevalent impacts. These results have relevance to management in the Mara basin and to future studies that might establish linkages to historic land use and climatic factors. The concern about uncertain uncertainty intervals (uncertainty²) extends beyond the Mara and is relevant to testing change where non‐random rating errors may be important and subtle responses are investigated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fake it till you make it—the uncanny art of forging amber

Amber has fascinated people since the Stone Age and as one of the best means of preservation of fossil organisms, it tickles our senses. The animals that are sometimes trapped in amber, like frozen moments of long‐lost ecosystems, can be so incredibly well preserved that they look modern—which, in some cases, has proven to be just the case. Because fossil‐bearing amber not only has a significant scientific value but is also a desired commodity on the open market, fake amber has unfortunately been around for centuries.     

Mapping areas of potential slope failures in cohesive soils using a shadow-casting algorithm – A case study from SW Sweden

When performing landslide susceptibility mapping of rotational slides in fine grained soils, slope algorithms found in common GIS software have two major shortcomings. Firstly, these types of terrain algorithms only consider the slope angle at the surface. Secondly, the algorithm is local by its design i.e. it only considers neighbouring pixels. Due to the behaviour of a retrogressive rotational landslide, it would be more preferable to consider slope information as a predetermined cross-section angle from the base of the slope. This paper presents a new method using shadow casting algorithms for preliminary landslide susceptibility mapping in cohesive soils. A case study from western Sweden is also presented.     

Soil frost effects on soil water and runoff dynamics along a boreal transect: 2. Simulations

A physically based SVAT‐model was tested with soil and snow physical measurements, as well as runoff data from an 8600 m² catchment in northern Sweden in order to quantify the influence of soil frost on spring snowmelt runoff in a moderately sloped, boreal forest. The model was run as an array of connected profiles cascading to the brook. For three winter seasons (1995–98) it was able to predict the onset and total accumulation of the runoff with satisfactory accuracy. Surface runoff was identified as only a minor fraction of the total runoff occurring during short periods in connection with ice blocking of the water‐conducting pores. Little surface runoff, though, does not mean that soil frost is unimportant for spring runoff. Simulations without frost routines systematically underestimated the total accumulated runoff. The possibility of major frost effects appearing in response to specific combinations of weather conditions were also tested. Different scenarios of critical initial conditions for the winter, e.g. high water saturation and delayed snow accumulation leading to an increased frost penetration, were tested. These showed that under special circumstances there is potential for increased spring runoff due to soil frost. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Northern landscapes in transition: Evidence,approach and ways forward using the Krycklan Catchment Study

Improving our ability to detect changes in terrestrial and aquatic systems is a grand challenge in the environmental sciences. In a world experiencing increasingly rapid rates of climate change and ecosystem transformation, our ability to understand and predict how, when, where, and why changes occur is essential for adapting and mitigating human behaviours. In this context, long-term field research infrastructures have a fundamentally important role to play. For northern boreal landscapes, the Krycklan Catchment Study (KCS) has supported monitoring and research aimed at revealing these changes since it was initiated in 1980. Early studies focused on forest regeneration and microclimatic conditions, nutrient balances and forest hydrology, which included monitoring climate variables, water balance components, and stream water chemistry. The research infrastructure has expanded over the years to encompass a 6790 ha catchment, which currently includes 11 gauged streams, ca. 1000 soil lysimeters, 150 groundwater wells, >500 permanent forest inventory plots, and a 150 m tall tower (a combined ecosystem-atmosphere station of the ICOS, Integrated Carbon Observation System) for measurements of atmospheric gas concentrations and biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, and energy. In addition, the KCS has also been the focus of numerous high resolution multi-spectral LiDAR measurements and large scale experiments. This large collection of equipment and data generation supports a range of disciplinary studies, but more importantly fosters multi-, trans-, and interdisciplinary research opportunities. The KCS attracts a broad collection of scientists, including biogeochemists, ecologists, foresters, geologists, hydrologists, limnologists, soil scientists, and social scientists, all of whom bring their knowledge and experience to the site. The combination of long-term monitoring, shorter-term research projects, and large-scale experiments, including manipulations of climate and various forest management practices, has contributed much to our understanding of boreal landscape functioning, while also supporting the development of models and guidelines for research, policy, and management.     

Deciphering a non-glacial/glacial landscape mosaic in the northern Swedish mountains

Relict surfaces contain information on past surface processes and long-term landscape evolution. A detailed investigation of relict non-glacial surfaces in a formerly glaciated mountain landscape of northern Sweden was completed, based on interpretation of colour infrared aerial photographs, analysis in a GIS, and fieldwork. Working backwards from landscape to process, surfaces were classified according to large- and small-scale morphologies that result from the operation of non-glacial processes, the degree of weathering, regolith characteristics, and the style of glacial modification. Surfaces were also compared in the GIS according to elevation, slope angle, and bedrock lithology. The study revealed five types of relict non-glacial surfaces but also two types of extensively weathered glacial surfaces that were transitional to relict non-glacial surfaces, illustrating spatially variable processes and rates of non-glacial and glacial landscape evolution. Rather than being static preglacial remnants, relict non-glacial surfaces are dynamic features that have continued to evolve during the Quaternary. The classification provides hypotheses for landscape evolution that can be field tested through, for example, terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide studies and geochemical analyses of fine matrix materials. The classification may be applicable to relict non-glacial surfaces in other formerly glaciated landscapes.     

Theoretical and practical aspects on benthic quality assessment according to the EU-Water Framework Directive – Examples from Swedish waters

A previously presented objective method to calculate each species sensitivity to disturbance is here slightly modified and implemented in the Benthic Quality Index (BQI) for marine benthic invertebrates. A framework for assessment of water bodies based on multi-site BQI-values is also presented, where a certain variation of BQI-values is allowed to cover the heterogeneity within each water body. The 20th percentile, using bootstrapping, from the available sites’ BQI-values is compared with the status boundaries for quality assessment. The reliability of the assessment depends on the background information available for the boundary setting as well as the number of sampling sites included in the assessment. Agreement between time series of quality assessments in areas with known changes in anthropogenic disturbances is encouraging. Problems associated with water body assessment based on few or no samples, as well as multiple sampling occasions during the 6-yr WFD cycle are discussed.