Spanish Monitoring of Comets: Making Sense of Amateur Photometric Data

Amateur astronomers have always represented an important observing group in cometary astronomy. Much of our knowledge of cometary light curves has come from amateur data, initially in the form of total visual magnitude estimates and now increasingly in the form of CCD observations. The increasingly widespread use by amateur astronomers of CCD cameras of excellent sensitivity and good cosmetic quality has revolutionised astrometry, allowing far more intensive astrometric monitoring of comets to be carried out down to magnitude 18 and fainter, with a corresponding enormous increase in the quality of calculated orbits. Although amateur CCD photometry is extensively available in the Internet, its use has been less widespread. The reason is the lack of standardisation in the way that this data is taken that leads to amateur CCD light curves having enormous dispersion. All amateur CCD photometry is aperture photometry, but it is seen that neither does it represent well the equivalent of m1 (total visual magnitude), even with a large aperture, nor is it close to the definition of m₂ (the nucleus magnitude). The problem is examined using data from the Spanish Comet Observers Group archives to show that by careful standardisation of data acquisition amateur CCD data can produce high quality, well-sampled and physically meaningful light curves. Examples are presented of the results for recent comets including 19P/Borrelly, 51P/Harrington, C/2001 TU80 (LINEAR-NEAT), C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR) & C/2001 A2 (LINEAR).     

Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment

The Hazard Assessment component of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program has completed 22 modeling efforts covering 113 coastal communities with an estimated population of 1.2 million residents that are at risk. Twenty-three evacuation maps have also been completed. Important improvements in organizational structure have been made with the addition of two State geotechnical agency representatives to Steering Group membership, and progress has been made on other improvements suggested by program reviewers.     

A Conceptual Framework for Enhancing the Utility of Rainfall Hazard Forecasts for Agriculture in Marginal Environments

Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969–1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa – a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine.     

Accumulation of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in estuarine and marine food chains: field measurements and model calculations

Food chain accumulation of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in estuarine and marine environments is compared to model estimations and fresh water field data. The food chain consists of herbivores, detritivores and primary and secondary carnivores i.e. fish, fish-eating birds and marine mammals. Accumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls is predicted well by OMEGA for herbi-detritivores and primary and secondary carnivorous fish. Ratios are similar to those found for fresh water species. Accumulation ratios for fish-eating birds and mammals are overestimated by the model, which is attributed partly to biotransformation of meta-para unsubstituted congeners. Additionally, birds may feed in other less polluted areas. For brominated diphenylethers (BDE) accumulation patterns are highly species and congener specific. Accumulation depends on both K(ow) and metabolization capacities. BDE47 is the predominant congener in lower trophic levels. For marine birds and mammals accumulation ratios of BDE99 and 100 are similar to or higher than ratios of persistent PCBs.     

Nitrogen, phosphorus, silica, and carbon in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia: Differential limitation of phytoplankton biomass and production

Subtropical estuaries have received comparatively little attention in the study of nutrient loading and subsequent nutrient processing relative to temperate estuaries. Australian estuaries are particularly susceptible to increased nutrient loading and eutrophication, as 75% of the population resides within 200 km of the coastline. We assessed the factors potentially limiting both biomass and production in one Australian estuary, Moreton Bay, through stoichiometric comparisons of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), silicon (Si), and carbon (C) concentrations, particulate compositions, and rates of uptake. Samples were collected over 3 seasons in 1997–1998 at stations located throughout the bay system, including one riverine endmember site. Concentrations of all dissolved nutrients, as well as particulate nutrients and chlorophyll, declined 10-fold to 100-fold from the impacted western embayments to the eastern, more oceanic-influenced regions of the bay during all seasons. For all seasons and all regions, both the dissolved nutrients and particulate biomass yielded N:P ratios <6 and N:Si ratios <1. Both relationships suggest strong limitation of biomass by N throughout the bay. Limitation of rates of nutrient uptake and productivity were more complex. Low C:N and C:P uptake ratios at the riverine site suggested light limitation at all seasons, low N:P ratios suggested some degree of N limitation and high N:Si uptake ratios in austral winter suggested Si limitation of uptake during that season only. No evidence of P limitation of biomass or productivity was evident.     

Historical trace element distribution in sediments from the Mississippi River delta

Five sediment cores were collected on the shelf of the inner Mississippi Bight in June 2003 for a suite of radionuclides to establish geochronologies and trace elements to examine patterns of contaminant deposition and accumulation. Core sites were chosen to reflect a matrix of variable water depths, proximity to the Mississippi River mouth as the primary source for terrigenous particles, and extent and duration of summertime water column hypoxia. The vertical distribution of^239,240Pu and²¹⁰Pb_xs(=²¹⁰Pb_total−²²⁶Ra) provided reliable geochronological age constraints to develop models for mass accumulation rates and historic trace element inputs and variations. Mass accumulation rates ranged from 0.27 to 0.87 g cm⁻²yr⁻¹ and were internally consistent using either²¹⁰Pb_xs or^239,240Pu. Measured inventories of¹³⁷Cs,^239,240Pu, and²¹⁰Pb_xs were compared to atmospheric deposition rates to quantify potential sediment focusing or winnowing. Observed variability in calculated mass accumulation rates may be attributed foremost to site-specific proximity to the river mouth (i.e., sediment source), variability in water depth, and enhanced sediment focusing at the Mississippi River canyon site. Trace element concentrations were first normalized to Al, and then Al-normalized enrichment factors (ANEF) were calculated based on preanthropogenic and crustal trace element abundances. These ANEFs were typically >1 for V and Ba, while for most other elements studied, either no enrichment or depletion was observed. The enrichment of Ba may be related, in part, to the seasonal occurrence of oxygen-depleted subsurface waters off the Mississippi River delta, as well as being an ubiquitous byproduct of the petroleum industry.     

Horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) in an urban estuary (Jamaica Bay, New York) and the potential for ecological restoration

We assessed the suitability of intertidal habitats for spawning by horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) at 12 proposed restoration sites identified by the United States Army Corps of Engineers along the shore of Jamaica Bay, a highly developed estuary in New York City. Based on beach geomorphology, we chose to quantify horseshoe crab activity at five of the sites during the May–July 2000 breeding season. Horseshoe crabs spawned intensively on small patches of suitable sand within larger areas of eroding shoreline with bulkheads and rubble fill. Small areas of sand behind grounded barges at Brant Point and Dubos Point had densities of over 100,000 eggs m⁻², which was equal to or greater than the egg densities on longer, more natural appearing beaches at Spring Creek and Dead Horse Bay, or at a sand spit at Bayswater State Park. There were no significant differences in the percentage of Jamaica Bay horseshoe crab eggs that completed development when cultured using water from Jamaica Bay or lower Delaware Bay, a less polluted location. Only 1% of the embryos from Jamaica Bay exhibited developmental anomalies, a frequency comparable to a previously studied population from Delaware Bay. We suggest that the distribution and abundance of horseshoe crabs at our study areas in Jamaica Bay is presently limited by the availability of suitable shoreline for breeding, rather than by water quality. Restoration efforts that increase the amount of sandy beach in this urban estuary have a good likelihood of benefiting horseshoe crabs and providing additional value to migrating shorebirds that use horseshoe crab eggs as food.