A simple model of pressure build-up caused by porosity reduction during burial

The fluid-pressure build-up due to porosity reduction in sedimentary basins during burial is studied. The model assumes that the void ratio decreases exponentially with depth, and that the permeability is proportional to the void ratio to an arbitrary exponent. Simple analytical solutions are obtained for the Darcy velocity and the fluid excess pressure. The pressure build-up during burial is studied with these solutions, and it is found to be inversely proportional to the gravity number. The importance of the permeability exponents on the fluid pressure is also studied. Gravity numbers much less than 1 are shown to yield high excess pressures during burial. A reasonable approximation for the maximum Darcy velocity is found to be the product of the surface void ratio and the burial rate. Hydrofracturing is discussed in relation to the pressure build-up, and cases characterized by gravity numbers much less than 1 are found to yield hydrofracturing over large depth ranges. It is suggested that the average permeability of hydrofractured sediments during burial corresponds to a gravity number equal to 1.     

Mantle plumes control magnetic reversal frequency

Magnetic reversal frequency correlates inversely with mantle plume activity for the past 150 Ma, as measured by the volume production rate of oceanic plateaus, seamount chains, and continental flood basalts. This inverse correlation is especially striking during the long Cretaceous magnetic normal “superchron”, when mantle plume activity was at a maximum. We suggest that mantle plumes control magnetic reversal frequency by the following sequence of events. Mantle plumes rise from theD″ seismic layer just above the core/mantle boundary, thinningD″ to fuel the plumes. This increases core cooling by allowing heat to be conducted more rapidly across the core/mantle boundary. Outer core convective activity then increases to restore the abnormal heat loss, causing a decrease in magnetic reversal frequency in accord with model predictions for bothα² andαω dynamos. When core convective activity increases above a critical level, a magnetic superchron results. The pulse of plume activity that caused the Cretaceous superchron resulted in a minimum increase in core heat loss of about 1200 GW over the present-day level, which corresponds to an increase in Joule heat production of about 120 GW within the core.     

Lessons learned from Eastern Africa: the development of policy on ICZM at national and regional levels

Coastal zones of Eastern Africa are endowed with a diversity of life forms and resources which support large populations of coastal communities. The economies of the countries in the region are dependent on these resources in the form of fisheries and coastal forest products, tourism, shipways and coastal facilities such as ports, industries and urban centers.Population growth, especially in coastal urban centers is increasing the demand for coastal and marine resources. In addition, poverty, lack of awareness and inadequate management have resulted in over exploitation of coastal and marine resources, habitat destruction including shoreline erosion as well as marine pollution. The rate of resource depletion and environmental degradation is on the increase. There is an urgent need for instituting management measure that will reverse the current trend.The governments in the region have accepted and are committed to the implementation of Integrated coastal management (ICZM) as an effective mechanism for addressing and resolving the multiplicity of issues experienced in coastal areas through sectoral coordination and collaborative approaches. However, the process has just begun and there are a number of ICZM initiatives in progress at local, national and regional levels. This paper presents the issues of the coastal zone and reviews some of the progress made to date in the implementation of ICZM.     

The P–T–t evolution of the exhumed Himalayan metamorphic core in the Likhu Khola region,East Central Nepal

The recent identification of multiple strike‐parallel discontinuities within the exhumed Himalayan metamorphic core has helped revise the understanding of convergence accommodation processes within the former mid‐crust exposed in the Himalaya. Whilst the significance of these discontinuities to the overall development of the mountain belt is still being investigated, their identification and characterization has become important for potential correlations across regions, and for constraining the kinematic framework of the mid‐crust. The result of new phase equilibria modelling, trace element analysis and high‐precision Lu–Hf garnet dating of the metapelites from the Likhu Khola region in east central Nepal, combined with the previously published monazite petrochronology data confirms the presence of one of such cryptic thrust‐sense tectonometamorphic discontinuities within the lower portion of the exhumed metamorphic core and provides new constraints on the P–T estimates for that region. The location of the discontinuity is marked by an abrupt change in the nature of P–T–t paths of the rocks across it. The rocks in the footwall are characterized by a prograde burial P–T path with peak metamorphic conditions of ~660°C and ~9.5 kbar likely in the mid‐to‐late Miocene, which are overlain by the hanging wall rocks, that preserve retrograde P–T paths with P–T conditions of >700°C and ~7 kbar in the early Miocene. The occurrence of this thrust‐sense structure that separates rock units with unique metamorphic histories is compatible with orogenic models that identify a spatial and temporal transition from early midcrustal deformation and metamorphism in the deeper hinterland to later deformation and metamorphism towards the shallower foreland of the orogen. Moreover, these observations are comparable with those made across other discontinuities at similar structural levels along the Himalaya, confirming their importance as important orogen‐scale structures.     

Observation-based evaluation of surface wave effects on currents and trajectory forecasts

Knowledge of upper ocean currents is needed for trajectory forecasts and is essential for search and rescue operations and oil spill mitigation. This paper addresses effects of surface waves on ocean currents and drifter trajectories using in situ observations. The data set includes colocated measurements of directional wave spectra from a wave rider buoy, ocean currents measured by acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), as well as data from two types of tracking buoys that sample the currents at two different depths. The ADCP measures the Eulerian current at one point, as modelled by an ocean general circulation model, while the tracking buoys are advected by the Lagrangian current that includes the wave-induced Stokes drift. Based on our observations, we assess the importance of two different wave effects: (a) forcing of the ocean current by wave-induced surface fluxes and the Coriolis–Stokes force, and (b) advection of surface drifters by wave motion, that is the Stokes drift. Recent theoretical developments provide a framework for including these wave effects in ocean model systems. The order of magnitude of the Stokes drift is the same as the Eulerian current judging from the available data. The wave-induced momentum and turbulent kinetic energy fluxes are estimated and shown to be significant. Similarly, the wave-induced Coriolis–Stokes force is significant over time scales related to the inertial period. Surface drifter trajectories were analysed and could be reproduced using the observations of currents, waves and wind. Waves were found to have a significant contribution to the trajectories, and we conclude that adding wave effects in ocean model systems is likely to increase predictability of surface drifter trajectories. The relative importance of the Stokes drift was twice as large as the direct wind drag for the used surface drifter.

     

Shoreline response to a single shore-parallel submerged breakwater

Submerged breakwaters (SBWs) are becoming a popular option for coastal protection, mainly due to their low aesthetic impact on the natural environment. However, SBWs have rarely been employed for coastal protection in the past and therefore, their efficacy remains largely unknown. The main objective of the present study was to investigate the structural and environmental conditions that govern the mode of shoreline response (i.e shoreline erosion vs shoreline accretion) to SBWs. The relative importance of the key structural and environmental parameters governing the response mode to a single shore parallel SBW is investigated through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical modelling. Using physical considerations, a theoretical response-function model is derived under several simplifying assumptions including parallel depth contours, linear wave theory, shore normal waves, and no wave–current interaction. Numerical modelling is undertaken with the Mike21 model suite to simulate the depth averaged velocity fields (without morphological updating) due to waves acting on a single shore-parallel SBW located on a schematised beach with parallel depth contours. In total 92 coupled wave–current simulations were undertaken. The results indicate that the mode of shoreline response to the SBW can be expressed in terms of the two non-dimensional parameters h_B/H₀ and (s_B/h_B)^3/2(L_B/h_B)²(A³/h_B)^1/2 (variables defined in the text).     

Estimation of winter leaf area index and sky view fraction for snow modelling in boreal coniferous forests: consequences on snow mass and energy balance

Leaf area index (LAI) and canopy coverage are important parameters when modelling snow process in coniferous forests, controlling interception and transmitting radiation. Estimates of LAI and sky view factor show large variability depending on the estimation method used, and it is not clear how this is reflected in the calculated snow processes beneath the canopy. In this study, the winter LAI and sky view fraction were estimated using different optical and biomass‐based approximations in several boreal coniferous forest stands in Fennoscandia with different stand density, age and site latitude. The biomass‐based estimate of LAI derived from forest inventory data was close to the values derived from the optical measurements at most sites, suggesting that forest inventory data can be used as input to snow hydrological modelling. Heterogeneity of tree species and site fertility, as well as edge effects between different forest compartments, caused differences in the LAI estimates at some sites. A snow energy and mass balance model (SNOWPACK) was applied to detect how the differences in the estimated values of the winter LAI and sky view fraction were reflected in simulated snow processes. In the simulations, an increase in LAI and a decrease in sky view fraction changed the snow surface energy balance by decreasing shortwave radiation input and increasing longwave radiation input. Changes in LAI and sky view fraction affected directly snow accumulation through altered throughfall fraction and indirectly snowmelt through the changed surface energy balance. Changes in LAI and sky view fraction had a greater impact on mean incoming radiation beneath the canopy than on other energy fluxes. Snowmelt was affected more than snow accumulation. The effect of canopy parameters on evaporation loss from intercepted snow was comparable with the effect of variation in governing meteorological variables such as precipitation intensity and air temperature. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intelligent ship traffic monitoring for oil spill prevention: risk based decision support building on AIS

The paper describes a model, which estimates the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers. The intended use of the model, which is ready for trial implementation at The Norwegian Coastal Administrations new Vard? VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) centre, is to facilitate the comparison of ships and to support a risk based decision on which ships to focus attention on. For a VTS operator, tasked with monitoring hundreds of ships, this is a valuable decision support tool. The model answers the question, "Which ships are likely to produce an oil spill accident, and how much is it likely to spill?".     

Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk

This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.