The Bayesian detection of discontinuities in a polynomial regression and its application to the cycle-slip problem

This paper deals with the problem of detecting and correcting cycle-slips in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) phase data by exploiting the Bayesian theory. The method is here applied to undifferenced observations, because repairing cycle-slips already at this stage could be a useful pre-processing tool, especially for a network of permanent GNSS stations. If a dual frequency receiver is available, the cycle-slips can be easily detected by combining two phase observations or phase and range observations from a single satellite to a single receiver. These combinations, expressed in a distance unit form, are completely free from the geometry and depend only on the ionospheric effect, on the electronic biases and on the initial integer ambiguities; since these terms are expected to be smooth in time, at least in a short period, a cycle-slip in one or both the two carriers can be modelled as a discontinuity in a polynomial regression. The proposed method consists in applying the Bayesian theory to compute the marginal posterior distribution of the discontinuity epoch and to detect it as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) in a very accurate way. Concerning the cycle-slip correction, a couple of simultaneous integer slips in the two carriers is chosen by maximazing the conditional posterior distribution of the discontinuity amplitude given the detected epoch. Numerical experiments on simulated and real data show that the discontinuities with an amplitude 2 or 3 times larger than the noise standard deviation are successfully identified. This means that the Bayesian approach is able to detect and correct cycle-slips using undifferenced GNSS observations even if the slip occurs by one cycle. A comparison with the scientific software BERNESE 5.0 confirms the good performance of the proposed method, especially when data sampled at high frequency (e.g. every 1 s or every 5 s) are available.     

Plio-Quaternary continental deposits of the Castellamonte area, between Orco and Dora Baltea Basins (Torino Province, Italy)

New geologic mapping of the area near Castellamonte (Torino Province) describes a wide Plio-Quaternary continental succession, up to about 100-m thick. This sequence is distinguished according to allostratigraphic criteria. Altitude, degree of pedogenesis and sediment supply from different basins are also used. Within a single alloformation, several lithofacies are described.Fine-grained fan-delta sediments (Vespia Alloformation) are described in the lower part of the continental succession. The fossil plant remains indicate an Early–Middle Pliocene age. These sediments show an evident deformation and fill ancient lacustrine basins, likely associated with the Canavese Line trend. Their wide distribution and considerable thickness suggest subsidence.Coarse-grained glacial, outwash and fluvial sediments (Colleretto Castelnuovo, S. Defendente, Case Musso, Pagliero, Serra and Piverone Alloformations) are described in the upper part of the continental succession. They consist of undeformed sediments deposited during Middle to Late Pleistocene. These sediments indicate the presence of small local glaciers along the current valley trends. The terracing ratios among the different units and their small thicknesses indicate subsequent differential uplift.     

Late Pleistocene vertebrate-bearing deposits at San Teodoro Cave (North-Eastern Sicily): Preliminary data on faunal diversification and chronology

This paper deals with the chronology and the possible correlations among levels of different excavated areas in the Pleistocene vertebrate-bearing deposits at the large San Teodoro Cave (North-Eastern Sicily). Two trenches have been excavated along the eastern side of the cave, located at a distance from the entrance, respectively, of 8 m (α trench) and 28 m (β trench) and at different depths. Lithological features, biometrical data from small mammals and ecological data from molluscs point to similar environmental conditions for the α trench deposits and those located along the eastern wall of the cave in the eastern part of the β trench. The same evidence, and the taphonomic features of large mammals, points to different environmental conditions and perhaps to different ages for the deposits located in the western part of the β trench. The survival of elephants in Sicily up to 32,000 years ago is a new significant result of the ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U dating carried out from a concretionary stratum from the β trench and represents the youngest elephant survival in the western Mediterranean islands.     

Fluid Geochemistry as Indicator of Tectonically-Related,Deep Water Circulations in the Sardinian Rift-Campidano Graben (Italy): New Insights from Environmental Isotopes

The EC funded Geochemical Seismic Zonation program (EEC GSZ Project 1996–1998) chose Sardinia as a low-seismicity site, in which the relationships between fluid geochemistry and seismo-tectonics had to be investigated and results compared with outcomes from other selected high-seismicity sites. A first article, examining the role of fault segmentation and seismic quiescence on the geochemical composition of groundwaters and gases, has already been presented (Angelone et al. 2005). This article deals with environmental isotopes which, together with selected hydrochemical data, give hints on tectonically-related fluid circulations. Four water-dominated hydrothermal systems were considered, all located along regional fault systems and discharging groundwaters belonging to the Na–HCO₃ and Na–Cl facies. In the considered systems, groundwater circulation takes place, principally, in the Palaeozoic Crystalline Basement (PCB), with the exception of the Logudoro system, where hydrological circuits develop in the Mesozoic Carbonate Platform (MCP). The high CO₂ contents, the non-attainment of fluid-rock equilibrium and the large lithological variability prevent the construction of a unique hydrogeological–geochemical conceptual model. In this case, stable isotopes provide a useful tool to describe the origin of fluids and their subterranean movements. Stable isotopes of water, integrated with hydrochemical data, indicate that fluids are derived from three main end members. The dominant component is a relatively recent local meteoric water; the second one is marine water; and the third one is a fossil freshwater, depleted in heavy isotopes with respect to modern rains. The latter end member entered the aquifer system in the past, when climatic conditions were greatly different from today. At least two circulation systems can be recognised, namely a shallow cold system and a deep hydrothermal system, as well as two distinct hydrological processes: (1) gravity-controlled descent of cold water towards greater depths and (2) convection linked to a thermal gradient, causing deep fluids to rise up from the hydrothermal reservoir towards the surface. The highly variable δ¹³C_TDIC values suggest the presence of two distinct CO₂ sources, namely, a biogenic one and a thermogenic one. The relation between the isotopic compositions of CO₂ and He indicates an increased mantle signature in uprising CO₂-rich fluids.     

Estimating groundwater evapotranspiration rates using diurnal water-table fluctuations in a semi-arid riparian zone

In semi-arid climates, phreatophytes draw on shallow aquifers, and groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_G) is a principal component of groundwater budgets. Diurnal water table fluctuations, which often are a product of ET_G, were monitored in the riparian zone of Red Canyon Creek, Wyoming, USA. These fluctuations were higher in a riparian wetland (2–36 mm) than a grass-covered meadow (1–6 mm). The onset and cessation of water-table fluctuations correspond to daily temperatures relative to freezing. Spatial differences were due to vegetation type and specific yield, while temporal changes were due to vegetation dormancy. Ratios of ET_G to potential evapotranspiration (PET), K _c,GW, were similar to ratios of actual evapotranspiration (ET) to PET, K _c, in semi-arid rangelands. Before vegetation senescence, K _c,GW increased between precipitation events, suggesting phreatophytes pull more water from the saturated zone as soil moisture decreases. In contrast, K _c decreases with soil moisture following precipitation events as ET becomes increasingly water-limited. Error in ET_G is primarily from estimates of specific yield (S _y), which is difficult to quantify in heterogeneous sediments. ET_G values may be more reliable because the range of acceptable S _y is smaller than K _c and S _y does not change with vegetation type or soil moisture.     

Groundwater flow systems in turbidites of the Northern Apennines (Italy): natural discharge and high speed railway tunnel drainage

Turbidites crop out extensively in the Northern Apennine mountains (Italy). The huge amounts of groundwater drained by tunnels, built for the high speed railway connection between Bologna and Florence, demonstrate the aquifer-like behaviour of these units, up to now considered as aquitards. A conceptual model of groundwater flow systems (GFS) in fractured aquifers of turbidites is proposed, taking into account both system natural state and the perturbation induced by tunnel drainage. Analysis of hydrological data (springs, streams and tunnel discharge), collected over 10 years, was integrated with analysis of hydrochemical and isotopic data and a stream-tunnel tracer test. Hydrologic recession analysis of undisturbed conditions is a key tool in studying turbiditic aquifer hydrogeology, permitting the discrimination of GFS, the estimation of recharge relative to the upstream reach portion and the identification of springs most vulnerable to tunnel drainage impacts. The groundwater budgeting analysis provides evidence that the natural aquifer discharge was stream-focused through GFS, developed downslope or connected to main extensional tectonic lineaments intersecting stream beds; now tunnels drain mainly active recharge groundwater and so cause a relevant stream baseflow deplenishment (approximately two-thirds of the natural value), possibly resulting in adverse effects on local ecosystems.     

Strain localization due to structural in-homogeneities in the Central European Basin System

The large-scale crustal deformations observed in the Central European Basin System (CEBS) are the result of the interplay between several controlling factors, among which lateral rheological heterogeneities play a key role. We present a finite-element integral thin sheet model of stress and strain distribution within the CEBS. Unlike many previous models, this study is based on thermo-mechanical data to quantify the impact of lateral contrasts on the tectonic deformation. Elasto-plastic material behaviour is used for both the mantle and the crust, and the effects of the sedimentary fill are also investigated. The consistency of model results is ensured through comparisons with observed data. The results resemble the present-day dynamics and kinematics when: (1) a weak granite-like lower crust below the Elbe Fault System is modelled in contrast to a stronger lower crust in the area extending north of the Elbe Line throughout the Baltic region; and (2) a transition domain in the upper mantle is considered between the shallow mantle of the Variscan domain and the deep mantle beneath the East European Craton (EEC), extending from the Elbe Line in the south till the Tornquist Zone. The strain localizations observed along these structural contrasts strongly enhance the dominant role played by large structural domains in stiffening the propagation of tectonic deformation and in controlling the basin formation and the evolution in the CEBS.     

Comparison of numerical models of two debris flows in the Cortina d’ Ampezzo area,Dolomites, Italy

The accurate prediction of runout distances, velocities and the knowledge of flow rheology can reduce the casualties and property damage produced by debris flows, providing a means to delineate hazard areas, to estimate hazard intensities for input into risk studies and to provide parameters for the design of protective measures. The application of most of models that describe the propagation and deposition of debris flow requires detailed topography, rheological and hydrological data that are not always available for the debris-flow hazard delineation and estimation. In the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, Eastern Dolomites, Italy, most of the slope instabilities are represented by debris flows; 325 debris-flow prone watersheds have been mapped in the geomorphological hazard map of this area. We compared the results of simulations of two well-documented debris flows in the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, carried on with two different single-phase, non-Newtonian models, the one-dimensional DAN-W and the two-dimensional FLO-2D, to test the possibility to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a debris flow with a model using a limited range of input parameters. FLO-2D model creates a more accurate representation of the hazard area in terms of flooded area, but the results in terms of runout distances and deposits thickness are similar to DAN-W results. Using DAN-W, the most appropriate rheology to describe the debris-flow behaviour is the Voellmy model. When detailed topographical, rheological and hydrological data are not available, DAN-W, which requires less detailed data, is a valuable tool to predict debris-flow hazard. Parameters obtained through back-analysis with both models can be applied to predict hazard in other areas characterized by similar geology, morphology and climate.     

Platinum-group element distribution in chromite ores from ophiolite complexes: implications for their exploration

Compilation of some new data on ophiolites for Greece and Yugoslavia, and published data from previous studies, indicate that platinum-group element (PGE) and gold concentrations in chromite ores are generally low, ranging from less than 100 ppb to a few hundred ppb. However, samples from several ophiolite complexes exhibit an enrichment (of a few ppm) (a) only in Os, Ir and Ru,(b) only in Pt and/or Pd or (c) in all PGE. This enrichment (up to 10s ppm) is mainly related with chromitites hosted in supra-Moho dunites and dunites of the uppermost stratigraphic levels of the mantle sequence and it seems to be local, independent of the chromitite major element composition and the chromite potential of the ophiolite complexes. The contents of PGE combined with less chalcophile elements (Ni, Co, Cu), the ratios of incompatible/compatible elements, and PGE-patterns provide evidence for discrimination between chromitites derived from primitive magmas and those derived from partially fractionated magmas, although they have a similar major element composition. Thus, they can be used for a stratigraphic orientation in the mantle sequence, and therefore for exploration targets. Moreover, PGE data offer valuable information for the evaluation of the chromite potential in ophiolite complexes. The most promising ophiolites seem to be those which apart from the petrological and geochemical characteristics indicating extensive degree of partial melting in the mantle source contain only one chromite ore type (the other type being only in small proportion) of limited compositional variation, in both major elements and PGE, low ratios of , while PGE-enriched chromitites in the mantle sequence are only occasionally present. In contrast, ophiolites which contain both high-Cr and -Al chromitites, and where their chalcophile element data implies relatively extensive fractionation trend are not good exploration targets for chromite ores, although they are related with a SSZ environment.     

Environmental records of carbonaceous fly-ash particles from fossil-fuel combustion

Analysis of fly-ash particles in lake sediments has become increasingly important in studies of environmental pollution and lake acidification history. Most fly-ash studies have concerned black spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCP)(>5 m) produced from oil and coal combustion. This review paper provides a summary of this technique and its application, and focusses on our investigations in Sweden between 1979 and 1993. It consists of five parts: i) preparation and analysis methods, ii) historical trends in atmospheric deposition, iii) geographical surveys of atmospheric deposition, iv) sediment dating, and v) studies of sedimentation processes in lakes. Methods for preparation and analyses of SCP have been developed and applied to investigations using sediment, soil and snow samples. Stratigraphic trends of SCP concentrations in lake-sediment cores reflect the consumption history of fossil fuels. A characteristic temporal SCP pattern, with a marked concentration increase beginning after the 1940's and a peak in the early 1970's, has been recognized in most Swedish lakes and elsewhere in Europe. A survey of SCP concentrations in surface sediments of >100 lakes covering Sweden demonstrated that polluted areas in southern Sweden had >100 times higher SCP concentrations than clean areas in the north. The spatial distribution of SCP over Sweden is similar to the deposition pattern of long-range transported airborne pollutants, such as excess sulphate monitored by network stations. SCP also accumulate in soils, and soil analyses can be used for determining the integrated historical deposition of SCP at the local or regional scale. Finally, SCP have been used for indirect dating of sediment cores and as a marker to assess sediment distribution patterns within lake basins.