Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation

Observations indicate that the Atlantic zonal mode influences El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, as already suggested in previous studies. Here we demonstrate for the first time using partial coupled experiments that the Atlantic zonal mode indeed influences ENSO. The partial coupling experiments are performed by forcing the coupled general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) with observed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tropical Atlantic, but with full air-sea coupling allowed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The ensemble mean of a five member simulation reproduces the observational results well. Analysis of observations, reanalysis, and coupled model simulations all indicate the following mechanism: SST anomalies associated with the Atlantic zonal mode affect the Walker Circulation, driving westward wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific during boreal summer. The wind stress anomalies increase the east-west thermocline slope and enhance the SST gradient across the Pacific; the Bjerknes positive feedback acts to amplify these anomalies favouring the development of a La Ni?a-like anomalies. The same mechanisms act for the cold phase of Atlantic zonal mode, but with opposite sign. In contrast to previous studies, the model shows that the influence on ENSO exists before 1970. Furthermore, no significant influence of the Tropical Atlantic on the Indian Monsoon precipitation is found in observation or model.     

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation response to idealized external forcing

The response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to idealized external (solar) forcing is studied in terms of the internal (unforced) AMOC modes with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model. The statistical investigation of KCM’s internal AMOC variability obtained from a multi-millennial control run yields three distinct modes: a multi-decadal mode with a period of about 60?years, a quasi-centennial mode with a period of about 100?years and a multi-centennial mode with a period of about 300–400?years. Most variance is explained by the multi-centennial mode, and the least by the quasi-centennial mode. The solar constant varies sinusoidally with two different periods (100 and 60?years) in forced runs with KCM. The AMOC response to the external forcing is rather complex and nonlinear. It involves strong changes in the frequency structure of the variability. While the control run depicts multi-timescale behavior, the AMOC variability in the experiment with 100?year forcing period is channeled into a relatively narrow band centered near the forcing period. It is the quasi-centennial AMOC mode with a period of just under 100?years which is excited, although it is heavily damped in the control run. Thus, the quasi-centennial mode retains its period which does not correspond exactly to the forcing period. Surprisingly, the quasi-centennial mode is also most strongly excited when the forcing period is set to 60?years, the period of the multi-decadal mode which is rather prominent in the control run. It is largely the spatial structure of the forcing rather than its period that determines which of the three internal AMOC modes is excited. The results suggest that we need to understand the full modal structure of the internal AMOC variability in order to understand the circulation’s response to external forcing. This could be a challenge for climate models: we cannot necessarily expect that the response to external forcing is realistically captured by a model, even if only strongly damped modes are not well represented that do not account for much variance under present-day conditions.     

Reconstruction of the El Niño attractor with neural networks

Based on a combined data set of sea surface temperature, zonal surface wind stress and upper ocean heat content the dynamics of the El Niño phenomenon is investigated. In a reduced phase space spanned by the first four EOFs two different stochastic models are estimated from the data. A nonlinear model represented by a simulated neural network is compared with a linear model obtained with the principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis. While the linear model is limited to damped oscillations onto a fix point attractor, the nonlinear model recovers a limit cycle attractor. This indicates that the real system is located above the bifurcation point in parameter space supporting self-sustained oscillations. The results are discussed with respect to consistency with current theory.     

The Genesis,Classification, Problems and Prospects of Microbial Carbonates:Implications from the Cambrian Carbonate of North China Platform

Currently, sedimentologists focus on the challenging issue of microbial carbonates, which are regarded as "one of the sedimentary rocks most difficult to study", having complicated sedimentary fabric. Their characteristic features closely related to microbial activity, distributed over a long period of geological time, and formed in diversified sedimentary environments. The main research concentrations are the calcified microbial mats and biofilms in geological records as the products of lithification and diagenesis. Starting from the origin, this paper systematically reviewed and explained the processes dwelling within two types of microbial communities, the thinner biofilm and the thicker microbial mat, which enabled them to convert into microbial carbonates through biomineralization and lithification. This study proposed that the existence of multiple microbial mats was another important cause for the diversification and complexity of microbial carbonates in addition to its complex depositional process. Moreover, the sedimentary characteristics and classification of different types of microbial carbonates were reviewed, exemplifying the Cambrian microbial carbonates in the North China Platform. These microbial carbonates are suggested to be placed under "bindstone" after Embry and Kloven, which can be further divided into 5 types, stromatolites, thrombolites, oncolites, laminites and leiolites. Dendrolite is not categorized as a separate class, instead attributed to thrombolites. The microbial carbonates may possess good source rock potential because of the enriched organic content, and may also serve as hydrocarbon reservoirs because of certain microbial textures and fabrics leading to significant porosity and permeability. Because of their biomineralization processes related to microbial activity, the microbial carbonates are not only an important window to understand the evolution of the earth's surface environment, but also capable of forming large-scale reservoirs, and their scientific and economic values are self-evident.     

Soils at the hyperarid margin: The isotopic composition of soil carbonate from the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile

We evaluate the impact of exceptionally sparse plant cover (0-20%) and rainfall (2-114 mm/yr) on the stable carbon and oxygen composition of soil carbonate along elevation transects in what is among the driest places on the planet, the Atacama Desert in northern Chile. δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values of carbonates from the Atacama are the highest of any desert in the world. δ¹³C (VPDB) values from soil carbonate range from −8.2‰ at the wettest sites to +7.9‰ at the driest. We measured plant composition and modeled respiration rates required to form these carbonate isotopic values using a modified version of the soil diffusion model of [Cerling (1984) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.71, 229-240], in which we assumed an exponential form of the soil CO₂ production function, and relatively shallow (20-30 cm) average production depths. Overall, we find that respiration rates are the main predictor of the δ¹³C value of soil carbonate in the Atacama, whereas the fraction C₃ to C₄ biomass at individual sites has a subordinate influence. The high average δ¹³C value (+4.1‰) of carbonate from the driest study sites indicates it formed—perhaps abiotically—in the presence of pure atmospheric CO₂.δ¹⁸O (VPDB) values from soil carbonate range from −5.9‰ at the wettest sites to +7.3‰ at the driest and show much less regular variation with elevation change than δ¹³C values. δ¹⁸O values for soil carbonate predicted from local temperature and δ¹⁸O values of rainfall values suggest that extreme (>80% in some cases) soil dewatering by evaporation occurs at most sites prior to carbonate formation. The effects of evaporation compromise the use of δ¹⁸O values from ancient soil carbonate to reconstruct paleoelevation in such arid settings.     

A review of ENSO prediction studies

A hierarchy of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) prediction schemes has been developed which includes statistical schemes and physical models. The statistical models are, in general, based on advanced statistical techniques and can be classified into models which use either low-frequency variations in the atmosphere (sea level pressure or surface wind) or upper ocean heat content as predictors. The physical models consist of coupled ocean-atmosphere models of varying degrees of complexity, ranging from simplified coupled models of the shallow water-type to coupled general circulation models. All models, statistical and physical, perform considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices of ENSO on lead times of 6 to 12 months. The most successful prediction schemes, the fully physical coupled ocean-atmosphere models, show significant prediction abilities at lead times exceeding one year period. We therefore conclude that ENSO is predictable at least one year in advance. However, all of this applies to gross indices of ENSO such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Despite the demonstrated predictability, little is known about the predictability of specific features known to be associated with ENSO (e.g. Indian Monsoon rainfall, Southern African drought, or even off-equatorial sea surface temperature). Nor has the relative importance for prediction of different regional anomalies or different physical processes yet been established. A seasonal dependence in predictability is well established, but the processes responsible for it are not fully understood.     

Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments

Recent studies indicate a weakening of the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century. Here, we present evidence from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the history of observed sea surface temperature (SST) that the Walker Circulation may have intensified rather than weakened. Observed Equatorial Indo-Pacific Sector SST since 1870 exhibited a zonally asymmetric evolution: While the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific showed only a weak warming, or even cooling in one SST dataset, the western part and the Equatorial Indian Ocean exhibited a rather strong warming. This has resulted in an increase of the SST gradient between the Maritime Continent and the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, one driving force of the Walker Circulation. The ensemble experiments with the AGCM, with and without time-varying external forcing, suggest that the enhancement of the SST gradient drove an anomalous atmospheric circulation, with an enhancement of both Walker and Hadley Circulation. Anomalously strong precipitation is simulated over the Indian Ocean and anomalously weak precipitation over the western Pacific, with corresponding changes in the surface wind pattern. Some sensitivity to the forcing SST, however, is noticed. The analysis of twentieth century integrations with global climate models driven with observed radiative forcing obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database support the link between the SST gradient and Walker Circulation strength. Furthermore, control integrations with the CMIP models indicate the existence of strong internal variability on centennial timescales. The results suggest that a radiatively forced signal in the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century may have been too weak to be detectable.     

Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs

Cyclone activity and life cycle are analysed in the coupled GCMs ECHAM5/OM and ECHAM4/OPYC3. First, the results for the present climate (1978–1999) are compared with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a drastic improvement in the representation of cyclone activity in ECHAM5/OM compared to ECHAM4/OPYC3. The total number of cyclones, cyclone intensity, propagation velocity and deepening rates are found to be much more realistic in ECHAM5/OM relative to ECHAM4/OPYC3. Then, changes in extra tropical cyclone characteristics are compared between present day climate and future climate under the emission-scenario A1B using ECHAM5/OM. This comparison is performed using the 20-year time slices 1978–1999, 2070–2090 and 2170–2190, which were considered to be representative for the various climate conditions. The total number of cyclones does not undergo significant changes in a warmer climate. However, regional changes in cyclone numbers and frequencies are evident. One example is the Mediterranean region where the number of cyclones in summer increases almost by factor 2. Some noticeable changes are also found in cyclone life cycle characteristics (deepening rate and propagation velocity). Cyclones in the future climate scenario tend to move slower and their deepening rate becomes stronger, while cyclone intensity does not undergo significant change in a warmer climate. Generally, our results do not support the hypothesis of enhanced storminess under future climate conditions.     

How old is Luzia? Luminescence dating and stratigraphic integrity at Lapa Vermelha,Lagoa Santa,Brazil

During an excavation in the 1970s, a disarticulated female human skeleton, later nicknamed Luzia, was discovered at 12m depth at Lapa Vermelha rockshelter in central Brazil. Radiocarbon dating of associated charcoal suggested an age of 11.4‐16.4 ka for the skeleton. The scattering of the skeletal parts, some uncertainty about the exact provenience of the skeleton, and evidence of pervasive insect turbation in the archaeological layers have raised doubts about the accuracy of the age. Luminescence dates for the depositional ages of the sediments at Lapa Vermelha are reported here. Single‐grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) of quartz along with grain‐size, chemical and micro‐morphological analyses of the sediments were employed to assess stratigraphic integrity, particularly the degree of sediment mixing. These various lines of evidence point to high stratigraphic integrity with little mixing at Lapa Vermelha. Sediments closest to where Luzia was recovered give OSL ages ranging from 12.7 to 16.0 ka, thus not refuting the original dates. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.