Climatology of dust storm frequency and its association with temperature and precipitation patterns over Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Diversified topography and uneven distribution of both temperature and precipitation contribute to formation of suitable synoptic conditions for incidents of dust storm (DS). This...     

Antarctic circumpolar modes in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

Eastward-propagating patterns in anomalous potential temperature and salinity of the Southern Ocean are analyzed in the output of a 1000-year simulation of the global coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM ECHO-G. Such features can be associated with the so-called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). It is found that time–longitude diagrams that have traditionally been used to aid the visualization of the ACW are strongly influenced by the width of the bandpass time filtering. This is due to the masking of considerable low-frequency variability that occurs over a broad range of time scales. Frequency–wavenumber analysis of the ACW shows that the eastward-propagating waves do have preferred spectral peaks, but that both the period and wavenumber change erratically when comparing different centuries throughout the simulation. The variability of the ACW on a variety of time scales from interannual to centennial suggests that the waiting time for a sufficient observational record to determine the time scale of variability of the real world ACW (and the associated decadal time scale predictability of climate for southern landmasses) will be a very long one.Responsible Editor: Dirk Olbers     

Global SST influence on twentieth century NAO variability

Recent studies have suggested that sea surface temperature (SST) is an important source of variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we deal with four basic aspects contributing to this issue: (1) we investigate the characteristic time scales of this oceanic influence; (2) quantify the scale-dependent hindcast potential of the NAO during the twentieth century as derived from SST-driven atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensembles; (3) the relevant oceanic regions are identified, corresponding SST indices are defined and their relationship to the NAO are evaluated by means of cross spectral analysis and (4) our results are compared with long-term coupled control experiments with different ocean models in order to ensure whether the spectral relationship between the SST regions and the NAO is an intrinsic mode of the coupled climate system, involving the deep ocean circulation, rather than an artefact of the unilateral SST forcing. The observed year-to-year NAO fluctuations are barely influenced by the SST. On the decadal time scales the major swings of the observed NAO are well reproduced by various ensembles from the middle of the twentieth century onward, including the negative state in the 1960s and part of the positive trend afterwards. A six-member ECHAM4-T42 ensemble reveals that the SST boundary condition affects 25% of total decadal-mean and interdecadal-trend NAO variability throughout the twentieth century. The most coherent NAO-related SST feature is the well-known North Atlantic tripole. Additional contributions may arise from the southern Pacific and the low-latitude Indian Ocean. The coupled climate model control runs suggest only the North Atlantic SST-NAO relationship as being a true characteristic of the coupled climate system. The coherence and phase spectra of observations and coupled simulations are in excellent agreement, confirming the robustness of this decadal-scale North Atlantic air–sea coupled mode.     

On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model

Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean?Catmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall.     

The 1983 drought in the West Sahel: a case study

Some drought years over sub-Saharan west Africa (1972, 1977, 1984) have been previously related to a cross-equatorial Atlantic gradient pattern with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) south of 10°N and anomalously cold SSTs north of 10°N. This SST dipole-like pattern was not characteristic of 1983, the third driest summer of the twentieth century in the Sahel. This study presents evidence that the dry conditions that persisted over the west Sahel in 1983 were mainly forced by high Indian Ocean SSTs that were probably remanent from the strong 1982/1983 El Ni?o event. The synchronous Pacific impact of the 1982/1983 El Ni?o event on west African rainfall was however, quite weak. Prior studies have mainly suggested that the Indian Ocean SSTs impact the decadal-scale rainfall variability over the west Sahel. This study demonstrates that the Indian Ocean also significantly affects inter-annual rainfall variability over the west Sahel and that it was the main forcing for the drought over the west Sahel in 1983.     

Multi-centennial variability controlled by Southern Ocean convection in the Kiel Climate Model

A quasi-oscillatory multi-centennial mode of open ocean deep convection in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean in the Kiel Climate Model is described. The quasi-periodic occurrence of the deep convection causes variations in regional and global surface air temperature, Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage, Southern Ocean and North Atlantic sea surface height, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The deep convection is stimulated by a strong built-up of heat at mid-depth. When the heat reservoir is virtually depleted a coincidental strong freshening event at the sea surface shuts down the convection. The heat originates from relatively warm deep water formed in the North Atlantic. The several decades lasting recharge process of the heat reservoir depends on the AMOC and the Weddell Gyre and sets a minimum delay for the deep convection to recur. While the strength of the AMOC increases, the Weddell Gyre weakens during the non-convective regime. Convection onset and shutdown also depend on the stochastic occurrence of favorable sea surface conditions, which contributes to the multi-centennial period of the phenomenon. The shutdown triggers a century-long deviation in AMOC strength caused by significant reductions in bottom water formation and surface salinity in the Southern Ocean’s Atlantic sector. Additional numerical experimentation reveals that sea ice has an important effect on the frequency of occurrence and intensity of the deep convection. Further, we find intriguing similarities to the Weddell Polynya observed during the 1970s.     

A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is investigated in a millennial control simulation with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model. An oscillatory mode with approximately 60 years period and characteristics similar to observations is identified with the aid of three-dimensional temperature and salinity joint empirical orthogonal function analysis. The mode explains 30 % of variability on centennial and shorter timescales in the upper 2,000 m of the North Atlantic. It is associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of ±1–2 Sv and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of ±0.2 °C. AMV in KCM results from an out-of-phase interaction between horizontal and vertical ocean circulation, coupled through Irminger Sea convection. Wintertime convection in this region is mainly controlled by salinity anomalies transported by the Subpolar Gyre (SPG). Increased (decreased) dense water formation in this region leads to a stronger (weaker) AMOC after 15 years, and this in turn leads to a weaker (stronger) SPG after another 15 years. The key role of salinity variations in the subpolar North Atlantic for AMV is confirmed in a 1,000 year long simulation with salinity restored to model climatology: No low frequency variations in convection are simulated, and the 60 year mode of variability is absent.     

Comparative assessment of two distributed watershed models with application to a small watershed

Distributed watershed models are beneficial tools for the assessment of management practices on runoff and water‐induced erosion. This paper evaluates, by application to an experimental watershed, two promising distributed watershed‐scale sediment models in detail: the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS‐2) model and the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The physics behind each model are to some extent similar, though they have different watershed conceptualizations. KINEROS‐2 was calibrated using three rainfall events and validated over four separate rainfall events. Parameters estimated by this calibration process were adapted to GSSHA. With these parameters, GSSHA generated larger and retarded flow hydrographs. A 30% reduction in both plane and channel roughness in GSSHA along with the assumption of Green‐Ampt conductivity K_G‐A = K_s, where K_s is the saturated conductivity, resulted in almost identical hydrographs. Sediment parameters not common in both models were calibrated independently of KINEROS‐2. A comparative discussion of simulation results is presented. Even though GSSHA's flow component slightly overperformed KINEROS‐2, the latter outperformed GSSHA in simulations for sediment transport. In spite of the fact that KINEROS‐2 is not geared toward continuous‐time simulations, simulations performed with both models over a 1 month period generated comparable results. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coupling of remote sensing data and environmental-related parameters for dengue transmission risk assessment in Subang Jaya,Malaysia

In Malaysia, the endemic level of dengue fever (DF) has already changed morbidity indicators, and the magnitude of these incidences in the last few years has surpassed the incidences of all other diseases of compulsory notification. The reasons for the dramatic emergence of DF are complex and not well understood. There are many factors that contribute to the epidemiological conditions that favour viral transmission by the main mosquito vector. This study, therefore, is filling this gap by analysing the impact of dengue incidence at a local (Subang Jaya) scale using environmental factors. Meteorological data and land-use pattern were consolidated using geographic information system (GIS) and its components as an analytical tool. We have shown that weather variables (relative humidity, temperature and precipitation) have significant correlation with DF incidence with seasonal variation. Besides land-use pattern, DF incidence shows the higher distribution in the residential area, followed by commercial and industrial area. This is due to the higher population density in residential area as well as favourable places for the breeding of dengue-carrying Aedes mosquitos created by humans in the residential area, especially one-storey houses. The analysis on the trends of DF incidence towards various housing types indicate that most of the victims’ houses fall into interconnection houses and mixed houses types compared to the independent houses area. The outcome driven from this analysis suggested that each character of the environmental factors has their own risk towards dengue incidence. In line with that, it is possible to develop a dynamic model of DF transmission using the knowledge produced by this comprehensive time series data and the results provided by the different analyses.     

Removal of Hydrogen Sulfide by Physico‐Biological Filter Using Mixed Rice Husk Silica and Dried Activated Sludge

This study investigated the effectiveness of a new packing material, namely mixed rice husk silica with dried activated sludge for removing H₂S. Dried sewage sludge was collected from Putrajaya sewage treatment plant in Malaysia. Rice husk silica was prepared at temperature of 800°C, after acid leaching and mixed with dried sewage sludge to be utilized in a polyvinyl chloride filter. The system was operated under variable conditions of two parameters, different inlet gas concentration and different inlet flow rate. H₂S was passed through the filter with one liter of the packing material. More than 99.96% removal efficiency (RE) with empty bed residence time (EBRT) of 90–45 s and 300 ppm inlet concentration was observed. However, the RE decreased to 96.87% with the EBRT of 30 s. The maximum elimination capacity (EC) of 52.32 g/m³/h was obtained with the RE of 96.87% and H₂S mass loading rate of 54 g/m³/h, while at the RE of 99.96%, maximum EC was 26.99 g/m³/h with the H₂S mass‐loading rate of 27 g/m³/h. A strong significant correlation between increasing of H₂S mass loading rate and pressure drop was also detected (p < 0.01). Maximum pressure drop was 3.0 mm H₂O after 53 days of operating time, the EBRT of 30 s, and 54 g/m³/h of H₂S loading rate. These observations suggest that the mixture of rice husk silica with dried activated sludge is a suitable physico‐biological filter for H₂S removal.