Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.     

Flexural deformation controls on Late Quaternary sediment dispersal in the Garo-Rajmahal Gap,NW Bengal Basin

Subsurface deformation is a driver for river path selection when deformation rates become comparable to the autogenic mobility rate of rivers. Here we combine geomorphology, soil and sediment facies analyses, and geophysical data of the Late Quaternary sediments of the central Garo-Rajmahal Gap in Northwest Bengal to link subsurface deformation with surface processes. We show variable sedimentation characteristics, from slow rates (<0.8 mm/year) in the Tista megafan at the foot of the Himalaya to nondeposition at the exposed surface of the Barind Tract to the south, enabling the development of mature soils. Combined subsidence in the Tista fan and uplift of the Barind Tract are consistent with a N-S flexural response of the Indian plate to loading of the Himalaya Mountains given a low value of elastic thickness (15–25 km). Provenance analysis based on bulk strontium concentration suggests a dispersal of sediment consistent with this flexural deformation—in particular the abandonment of the Barind Tract by a Pleistocene Brahmaputra River and the current extents of the Tista megafan lobes. Overall, these results highlight the control by deeply rooted deformation patterns on the routing of sediment by large rivers in foreland settings.     

Understanding the Role of Mass-Unloading in a Filament Eruption

We describe a partial filament eruption on 11 December 2011 that demonstrates that the inclusion of mass is an important next step for understanding solar eruptions. Observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft were used to remove line-of-sight projection effects in filament motion and correlate the effect of plasma dynamics with the evolution of the filament height. Flux cancellation and nearby flux emergence are shown to have played a role in increasing the height of the filament prior to eruption. The two viewpoints allow the quantitative estimation of a large mass-unloading, the subsequent radial expansion, and the eruption of the filament to be investigated. A 1.8 to 4.1 lower-limit ratio between gravitational and magnetic-tension forces was found. We therefore conclude that following the loss-of-equilibrium of the flux-rope, the radial expansion of the flux-rope was restrained by the filamentary material until 70% of the mass had evacuated the structure through mass-unloading.     

Determination of Supermassive Black Hole Spins Based on the Standard Shakura–Sunyaev Accretion Disk Model and Polarimetric Observations

Based on spectropolarimetry for 47 type 1 active galactic nuclei observed with the 6-m BTA telescope, we have estimated the spins of the supermassive black holes at the centers of these galaxies. We have determined the spins based on the standard Shakura–Sunyaev accretion disk model. About 70% of the investigated active galactic nuclei are shown to have Kerr supermassive black holes with a dimensionless spin greater than 0.9.     

Classifying GRB 170817A/GW170817 in a Fermi duration–hardness plane

GRB 170817A, associated with the LIGO-Virgo GW170817 neutron-star merger event, lacks the short duration and hard spectrum of a Short gamma-ray burst (GRB) expected from long-standing classification models. Correctly identifying the class to which this burst belongs requires comparison with other GRBs detected by the Fermi GBM. The aim of our analysis is to classify Fermi GRBs and to test whether or not GRB 170817A belongs—as suggested—to the Short GRB class. The Fermi GBM catalog provides a large database with many measured variables that can be used to explore gamma-ray burst classification. We use statistical techniques to look for clustering in a sample of 1298 gamma-ray bursts described by duration and spectral hardness. Classification of the detected bursts shows that GRB 170817A most likely belongs to the Intermediate, rather than the Short GRB class. We discuss this result in light of theoretical neutron-star merger models and existing GRB classification schemes. It appears that GRB classification schemes may not yet be linked to appropriate theoretical models, and that theoretical models may not yet adequately account for known GRB class properties. We conclude that GRB 170817A may not fit into a simple phenomenological classification scheme.     

Using Models of the Deep Structure of the Earth’s Crust and Upper Mantle Based on GOCE Gravity Data in Metallogenic Analysis

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Gravimetric data obtained by the GOCE spacecraft contributes to the development of global models of the deep structure of the Earth’s crust and...     

The spawning and early life-history of a New Zealand endemic amphidromous eleotrid,bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi)

The larval stage of fishes is critical in determining their dispersal, survival and recruitment, but little is known of the larval behaviours and tolerances of amphidromous fishes, particularly in New Zealand. We report the results of a series of observational and experimental studies on bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi), including spawning sites and behaviours, larval characteristics at hatch, phototactic responses of larvae, and larval survival at different salinity levels. Spawning primarily occurred in the lower reaches of the river, and larvae from different nests exhibited marked differences in, and trade-offs between, larval characteristics at hatch, potentially affecting larval success. Larvae were positively phototactic to intense light, an unexpected result based on diel drift patterns and international research. Finally, larvae exhibited markedly higher survival rates when reared at intermediate salinities compared to freshwater or seawater, suggesting estuaries may play an important role as nursery grounds for bluegill bully and other amphidromous fish.     

Otolith microchemistry indicates regional phylopatry in the larval phase of an amphidromous fish (Gobiomorphus hubbsi)

Knowledge of stock structure is key for the effective management of any fish species. Amphidromous fish, which live and spawn in freshwater but spend a pelagic larval period at sea, have typically been assumed to disperse widely during their larval phase, resulting in populations being sourced from a single unstructured larval pool. We used otolith microchemical analysis to examine the stock structure of bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi), a declining amphidromous eleotrid endemic to New Zealand, along the west coast of South Island, New Zealand. Some drainages – even those in close proximity (c. 20?km) – were readily distinguishable based on otolith trace element concentrations, while little structure was evident between other geographically disparate locations. These results indicate that, at least in some cases, locally retained larvae, rather than a single unstructured larval pool, dominates recruitment. Management of bluegill bully and other amphidromous species must therefore consider the possibility of regionally distinct populations.     

浙南近海虾类群落结构及其多样性分析

作者根据2015年11月(秋季)、2016年2月(冬季)、2016年5月(春季)和2016年8月(夏季)对浙南近海进行的渔业资源调查数据,用生物量作为虾类资源分布的数量指标,对该海域虾类的组成、数量分布以及季节变化进行分析。结果显示:该区域共鉴定出虾类30种,隶属于10科21属,以对虾科(Penaeidae)虾类最多,其次为管鞭虾科(Solenoceridae),长臂虾科(Palaemonida)位居第3位。按季节来看,秋季共鉴定虾类27种,各站位平均生物量为6.97 kg/km2,优势种为凹陷管鞭虾(Solenocera koelbeli)、中国毛虾(Acetes chinensis)和中华管鞭虾(Solenocera crassicornis)等3种;冬季鉴定出虾类25种,平均生物量为1.65 kg/km2,优势种为凹陷管鞭虾、扁足异对虾(Atypopenaeus stenodactylus)、日本鼓虾(Alpheus japonicus)、鲜明鼓虾(Alpheus digitalis)、中国毛虾、中华管鞭虾和周氏新对虾(Metapenaeus joyneri)等7种;春季20种,平均生物量为2.22 kg/km2,优势种为戴氏赤虾(Metapenaeopsis dalei)、东海红虾(Metapenaeopsis dalei)和中华管鞭虾等3种;夏季16种,平均生物量为10.36 kg/km2,优势种有鹰爪虾(Trachysalambria curvirostris)和中华管鞭虾等2种。Margalef丰富度指数(D)、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H′)和Pielou均匀度指数(J′)秋季均低于冬季。秋冬季受到浙闽沿岸流影响,温度、盐度相对较低,夏季受到台湾暖流外侧影响,温度、盐度相对较高,且各季节间由于瓯江、椒江、飞云江、鳌江等陆源性冲淡水的影响,盐度、温度变化相对较大,使得该区域的物种不得不适应一个跨度较大的温盐范围,广温广盐性种类为主。