A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia

The most direct method of design flood estimation is at-site flood frequency analysis, which relies on a relatively long period of recorded streamflow data at a given site. Selection of an appropriate probability distribution and associated parameter estimation procedure is of prime importance in at-site flood frequency analysis. The choice of the probability distribution for a given application is generally made arbitrarily as there is no sound physical basis to justify the selection. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the suitability of as many as fifteen different probability distributions and three parameter estimation methods based on a large Australian annual maximum flood data set. A total of four goodness-of-fit tests are adopted, i.e., the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, Anderson–Darling test, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, to identify the best-fit probability distributions. Furthermore, the L-moments ratio diagram is used to make a visual assessment of the alternative distributions. It has been found that a single distribution cannot be specified as the best-fit distribution for all the Australian states as it was recommended in the Australian rainfall and runoff 1987. The log-Pearson 3, generalized extreme value, and generalized Pareto distributions have been identified as the top three best-fit distributions. It is thus recommended that these three distributions should be compared as a minimum in practical applications when making the final selection of the best-fit probability distribution in a given application in Australia.     

Systematic development of a new hysteretic damper based on torsional yielding: part I—design and development

Analytical and experimental studies into the behavior of a new hysteretic damper, designed for seismic protection of structures is presented in two papers. Although the subject matter of the papers is a specific system, they are also intended as an illustration of practical application of diverse engineering tools in systematic development of an anti‐seismic product. The Multi‐directional Torsional Hysteretic Damper (MTHD) is a recently patented invention in which a symmetrical arrangement of identical cylindrical steel energy dissipaters is configured to yield in torsion while the structure experiences planar movements due to earthquake shakings. The device has gone through many stages of design refinement, prototype verification tests and development of design guidelines and computer codes to facilitate its implementation in practice. The first of this two‐part paper summarizes the development stages of the new system, conceptual and analytical. The experimental phase of the research is the focus of the accompanying paper. The new device has certain desirable properties. Notably, it is characterized by a variable and controllable‐via‐design or adaptive post‐elastic stiffness. This feature gives the isolated structure the capability to evade the dominant period of the ground motion leading to reduced displacements while having force levels comparable to regular bilinear isolation systems. The device has already been applied to four major bridges. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Systematic development of a new hysteretic damper based on torsional yielding: part II—experimental phase

This paper reports on experimental studies carried out on a 200 kN, 120 mm‐capacity prototype of the newly developed multidirectional torsional hysteretic damper for seismic protection of structures. The main goal of the experiments is to test the validity of the theory developed in a companion paper and to evaluate the low‐cycle fatigue performance of the energy dissipaters of the damper. Because the design and configuration of the damper allow easy replacement of the energy dissipaters, four sets of energy dissipaters were produced out of S355J2 + N, C45 (two sets), and 42CrMo4 + QT steel grades. Force–displacement response of the multidirectional torsional hysteretic damper is studied through fully reversed cyclic quasi‐static displacement‐controlled tests that were carried out in compliance with EN 15129. Following the verification tests, with the aim of studying fatigue and fracture behavior of the cylindrical energy dissipaters of the device, certain numbers of them were subjected to further cyclic tests up to failure, and observations on their fatigue/fracture behavior are reported. The experimental verification test results proved the validity of the developed theory and component design assumptions presented in a companion paper. Furthermore, the energy dissipaters exhibited excellent torsional low‐cycle fatigue performance with number of cycles to failure reaching 118 at a maximum shear strain of 8% for S355J2 + N steel grade. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of the effect of water management interventions on water level of Gaza coastal aquifer

Gaza coastal aquifer (GCA) is the most precious natural source where it is the only source of water for different uses. Groundwater crisis in Gaza includes two major folds: shortage of water supply and contamination. The extraction of groundwater currently exceeds the aquifer recharge rate. As a result, the groundwater level is falling continuously leading severely deterioration of GCA. The main objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the current and proposed water resources management plans and their effect on the water level of GCA. In this respect, the available quantities of rainfall that could be harvested and infiltrated from different types of land-use based on existing and planned situations are studied using GIS tool and numerical models for GCA using V-MODFLOW environment for simulating four scenarios: (i) existing management practice (no action scenario), (ii) proposed Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) stormwater infiltration plan, (iii) proposed Gaza Emergency Technical Assistance Program (GETAP) interventions, and (iv) combination between second and third scenarios. The management scenarios were tested with the calibrated flow model for the target period between 2016 and 2040. The simulation results of existing management practice scenario show that there are several depression zones in Gaza Strip; in southern part from ??18 to ??24 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, in the northern part from ??7 to ??12 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, and in the middle regions experienced a small decline in groundwater level. The simulation results of proposed PWA scenario indicate similar depression zones as per first scenario but with good enhancement of water level, ??17 to ??18 m MSL in the southern part and ??3 to ??6 m MSL in the northern part in 2020 and 2040, respectively. The simulation results of GETAP intervention scenario show a positive impact on groundwater level. The results of fourth scenario show good enhancement of water level, in which the water level in the northern part ranges from +?3 to +?6 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, while in the south part ranges from ??15 to +?4 MSL in 2020 and 2040.     

Simulation of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> hydrate formation in cold aquifers: nonequilibrium approach

In this paper, we focus on the geological storage of CO₂ in reservoirs with zones that are cold enough to facilitate CO₂ hydrate formation at local pressures. A 2D hydro-chemical mechanical model which has five layers (three layers with aquifers and two layers with cap rock in which we introduced two fractures) is created. We apply a reactive transport reservoir simulator, RetrasoCodeBright (RCB), in which hydrate is treated as a pseudo mineral. Following the recent modifications to account for hydrate dynamics in the code through a kinetic approach (Kvamme et al., Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Gas Hydrates (ICGH 2011), 2011b), we have further improved the simulator to implement the nonequilibrium thermodynamic calculations. In the present study, we spot the light on the hydrate formation effects on porosity in different regions, as well as on the flow pattern. These simulations are based on classical relationships between porosity and permeability, but the outline of ongoing modifications is presented as well. A critical question in such systems is whether hydrate formation can contribute to stabilizing the storage, given that hydrates are pore filling and cannot be stable toward mineral surfaces. The implications of hydrate formation on the geo-mechanical properties of the model reservoir are other aspects addressed in this study.     

Tsunami hazard evaluation for Kuwait and Arabian Gulf due to Makran Subduction Zone and Subaerial landslides

Given the recent historical disastrous tsunamis and the knowledge that the Arabian Gulf (AG) is tectonically active, this study aimed to evaluate tsunami hazards in Kuwait from both submarine earthquakes and subaerial landslides. Despite the low or unknown tsunami risks that impose potential threats to the coastal area’s infrastructures and population of Kuwait, such an investigation is important to sustain the economy and safety of life. This study focused on tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes with earthquake magnitudes (M _w ) of 8.3–9.0 along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) and subaerial landslides with volumes of 0.75–2.0 km³ from six sources along the Iranian coast inside the AG and one source at the Gulf entrance in Oman. The level of tsunami hazards associated with these tsunamigenic sources was evaluated using numerical modeling. Tsunami model was applied to conduct a numerical tsunami simulation and predict tsunami propagation. For landslide sources, a two-layer model was proposed to solve nonlinear longwave equations within two interfacing layers with appropriate kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions. Threat level maps along the coasts of the AG and Kuwait were developed to illustrate the impacts of potential tsunamis triggered by submarine earthquakes of different scales and subaerial landslides at different sources. GEBCO 30 arc-second grid data and others were used as bathymetry and topography data for numerical modeling. Earthquakes of M _w 8.3 and M _w 8.6 along the MSZ had low and considerable impacts, respectively, at the Gulf entrance, but negligible impacts on Kuwait. An earthquake of M _w 9.0 had a remarkable impact for the entire Gulf region and generated a maximum tsunami amplitude of up to 0.5 m along the Kuwaiti coastline 12 h after the earthquake. In the case of landslides inside the AG, the majority impact occurred locally near the sources. The landslide source opposite to Kuwait Bay generated the maximum tsunami amplitudes reaching 0.3 m inside Kuwait Bay and 1.8 m along the southern coasts of Kuwait.

     

Assessing groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution using statistical approaches: a case study of Sidi Bouzid shallow aquifer,Central Tunisia

The study region comprises the Sidi Bouzid shallow aquifer, which is located in the western part of Central Tunisia. It is mainly occupied by agricultural land with intensive use of chemical fertilizers especially nitrates. For this reason, nitrate measurement was performed in 38 water samples to evaluate and calibrate the obtained models. Several environmental parameters were analyzed using groundwater nitrate concentrations, and different statistical approaches were applied to assess and validate the groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution in the Sidi Bouzid shallow aquifer. Multiple linear regression (MLR), analyses of covariance (ANCOVA), and logistic regression (LR) were carried out for studying the nitrate effects on groundwater pollution. Statistical analyses were used to identify major environmental factors that control the groundwater nitrate concentration in this region. Correlation and statistical analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the nitrate (dependent variable) and various environmental variables (independent variables). All methods show that “groundwater depth” and “land use” parameters are statistically significant at 95% level of confidence. Groundwater vulnerability map was obtained by overlaying these two thematic layers which were obtained in the GIS environment. It shows that the high vulnerability area coincides with the likelihood that nitrate concentration exceeds 24.5 mg/l in groundwater. The relationship between the groundwater vulnerability classes and the nitrate concentrations provides satisfactory results; it showed an Eta-squared correlation coefficient of 64%. So, the groundwater vulnerability map can be used as a synthetic document for realistic management of groundwater quality.     

Pattern recognition of major asperities using local recurrence time in Alborz Mountains, Northern Iran

In this study, seismic data recorded during the period 01/01/1996 to 09/01/2009 has been used to evaluate the seismic hazard potential along the Alborz region, Northern Iran. The technique of mapping local recurrence time, T _L, is used to map major asperities, which are considered as the areas with maximum hazard. We calculated T _L from a and b values which are in turn derived from the frequency–magnitude relation constants within a radius of 30 km about every corner point of a 10-km spacing grid. Since b value is inversely related to applied stress, the areas with lowest b values and/or shortest T _L are interpreted to locate the asperities or the areas of maximum seismic hazard. To test this method, we computed T _L map using seismic catalogues before and after the 2004 Baladeh earthquake of M _w 6.2. The local recurrence time map before the earthquake shows anomalously short T _L in the epicentral region of the Baladeh earthquake a decade before its occurrence. The T _L map after the earthquake indicates that this large event has redistributed the applied stress in the Alborz region. The microseismicity of the region after the Baladeh earthquake, however, suggests that there are two anomalies in T _L map positioned in Alborz. The places where these anomalies are observed can be considered as the areas with maximum seismic hazard for future large earthquake in the Alborz region.     

Algal community and pollution indicators for the assessment of water quality of Ismailia canal,Egypt

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - The phytoplankton community structure is affected by both ecological and spatial factors. Influences of these two factors on phytoplankton...     

Regionalisation of the parameters of the log‐Pearson 3 distribution: a case study for New South Wales,Australia

The index flood method is widely used in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) but explicitly relies on the identification of ‘acceptable homogeneous regions’. This paper presents an alternative RFFA method, which is particularly useful when ‘acceptably homogeneous regions’ cannot be identified. The new RFFA method is based on the region of influence (ROI) approach where a ‘local region’ can be formed to estimate statistics at the site of interest. The new method is applied here to regionalize the parameters of the log‐Pearson 3 (LP3) flood probability model using Bayesian generalized least squares (GLS) regression. The ROI approach is used to reduce model error arising from the heterogeneity unaccounted for by the predictor variables in the traditional fixed‐region GLS analysis. A case study was undertaken for 55 catchments located in eastern New South Wales, Australia. The selection of predictor variables was guided by minimizing model error. Using an approach similar to stepwise regression, the best model for the LP3 mean was found to use catchment area and 50‐year, 12‐h rainfall intensity as explanatory variables, whereas the models for the LP3 standard deviation and skewness only had a constant term for the derived ROIs. Diagnostics based on leave‐one‐out cross validation show that the regression model assumptions were not inconsistent with the data and, importantly, no genuine outlier sites were identified. Significantly, the ROI GLS approach produced more accurate and consistent results than a fixed‐region GLS model, highlighting the superior ability of the ROI approach to deal with heterogeneity. This method is particularly applicable to regions that show a high degree of regional heterogeneity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.