The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

Geochemistry of the Rare Earth Elements in Natural Terrestrial Waters：A Review of What Is Currently Knows

The range of observed chemical compositions of natural terrestrial waters varies greatly especially when compared to the essentially constant global composition of the oceans.The concentrations of the REEs in natural terrestrial waters also exhibit more variation than what was reported in seawater,In terrestrial waters ,pH values span the range from acid up to alkaline,In addition,terrestrial waters can range from very dilute waters through to highly concentrated brines.The REE concentrations and their behavior in natural terrestrial waters reflect these compositional ranges,Chemical weathering of rocks represents the source of the REEs to natural terrestrial waters and ,consequently,the REE signature of rocks can impart their REE signature to associated waters,In addition,Because of the typical low solubilities of the REEs both surface and solution complexation can be important in fractionating REEs in aqueous solution.Both of these processes are important in all natural terrestrial waters,however,their relative importance varies as a function of the overall solution composition,In alkaline waters,for example,Solution complexation of the REEs with carbonate ions appears to control their aqueous distributions whereas in acid waters,the REE signature of the labile fraction of the REEs is readily leached from the rocks.In circumneutral pH waters,both processes appear to be important and their relative significance has not yet been determined.     

Geochemistry of Tertiary tholeiites and picrites from Qeqertarssuaq (Disko Island) and Nuussuaq, West Greenland with implications for the mineral potential of comagmatic intrusions

Tertiary continental flood basalts on Qeqertarssuaq and Nuussuaq in West Greenland contain ～3?km of picrites and variably contaminated tholeiites. The picrites are in the Naujánguit member of the Vaïgat Formation and they have 7–29?wt% MgO, La/Sm?=?0.9–2.1, and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.51263–0.51307. They appear to have crystallised from high-Mg parental magmas (14.4–16.4?wt% MgO) with isotope and trace element ratios similar to recent Icelandic picrites. Discrete horizons of tholeiites, including the Asûk and?Kûgánguaq, have elevated SiO₂ (50–58 wt%), La/Sm?=?3–7, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.70550–0.71224, and low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.51234–0.51174. These lavas have low Cu and Ni abundances (typically 10–50?ppm Ni or Cu), and in the case of the Asûk on Qeqertarssuaq, they contain droplets of native iron. The low Cu and Ni contents are attributed to scavenging by magmatic sulphides formed in response to crustal contamination of picritic magmas. Two contamination trends are recognised, one to a sediment end-member with high Th/Nb and Archaean model Nd ages, and the other to a meta-igneous component with high La/Sm, low Th/Nb and Rb/Nb, and Proterozoic source ages. Overall, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb varies from 16.47–21.68. Both contamination trends are associated with low Cu and Ni, and high SiO₂, and it is argued that the magmatic sulphides were triggered by the increases in silica, rather than simply by the introduction of additional crustal-derived sulphur. Geochemically, the Asûk and Kûgánguaq rocks resemble the most contaminated Nadezhdinsky lavas of the Siberian Trap, which are widely regarded as the source of the Ni and Cu mineralisation in the giant Noril'sk deposits. Mass balance considerations indicate that the parental liquids to the contaminated magmas contained sufficient Ni, Cu, S and platinum group elements to form substantial magmatic sulphide deposits. However, unlike the lavas at Noril'sk, the contaminated (low Cu and Ni) West Greenland basalts are in isolated units with no evidence for a gradual recovery in Ni and Cu abundances with height in the lava column. Comparison with Noril'sk suggests that although significant quantities of metals were scavenged by sulphides in West Greenland, the metal contents of the sulphides may not have been upgraded by continued interaction with subsequent magma batches.     

Evidence for freeze–thaw events and their implications for rock weathering in northern Canada

Discussions regarding weathering in cold environments generally centre on mechanical processes and on the freeze–thaw mechanism in particular. Despite the almost ubiquitous assumption of freeze–thaw weathering, unequivocal proof of interstitial rock water actually freezing and thawing is singularly lacking. Equally, many studies have used the crossing of 0 °C, or values close to that, as the basis for determining the number of ‘freeze–thaw events’. In order to assess the weathering regime at a site in northern Canada, temperatures were collected at the surface, 1 cm and 3 cm depth for sets of paving bricks, with exposures both vertical and at 45°, orientated to the four cardinal directions. Temperature data were collected at 1 min intervals for 1 year. These data provide unequivocal proof for the occurrence of the freezing and thawing of water on and within the rock (freeze–thaw events). The freeze event is evidenced by the exotherm associated with the release of latent heat as the water actually freezes. This is thought to be the ?rst record of such events from a ?eld situation. More signi?cantly, it was found that the temperature at which freezing occurred varied signi?cantly through the year and that on occasion the 1 cm depth froze prior to the rock surface. The change in freeze temperature is thought to be due to the chemical weathering of the material (coupled with on‐going salt inputs via the melting of snowfall), which, it is shown, could occur throughout the winter despite air temperatures down to ?30 °C. This ?nding regarding chemical weathering is also considered to be highly signi?cant. A number of thermal stress events were also recorded, suggesting that rock weathering in cold regions is a synergistic combination of various chemical and mechanical weathering mechanisms. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

L'archivage des activités humaines par les neiges et glaces polaires : le cas du plomb

The investigation of the occurrence of lead in dated snow and ice from Greenland and Antarctica has played a major role in our understanding of the history of the pollution of the atmosphere of our planet by this metal. Such studies have however proved to be very demanding, mainly because of the extreme purity of polar snow and ice. Reliable measurements can be obtained only if ultra-clean and highly sensitive procedures are used, as pioneered by Clair Patterson. The Greenland data show evidence of large-scale pollution of the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere for lead as early as two millennia ago during Greco–Roman times, especially because of mining and smelting activities in southern Spain. It peaked at the end of the 1960s, with lead concentrations in snow about 200 times higher than natural values, before declining during recent times because of the fall in the use of leaded gasoline. Lead pollution in Antarctica was already significant at the end of the 19th century as a consequence of whaling activities, the traffic of coal-powered ships crossing the Cape Horn, and mining activities in South America, South Africa and Australia. After declining because of the opening of the Panama Canal, the great economic depression and World War II, it reached a maximum during the 1980s, with lead concentrations 20 times higher than natural values. Other studies focus on past natural variations of lead in ancient ice dated from the last climatic cycles. To cite this article: C. Boutron et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Dust production and the release of iron oxides resulting from the aeolian abrasion of natural dune sands

Global dust trajectories indicate that signi?cant quantities of aeolian‐transported iron oxides originate in contemporary dryland areas. One potential source is the iron‐rich clay coatings that characterize many sand‐sized particles in desert dune?elds. This paper uses laboratory experiments to determine the rate at which these coatings can be removed from dune sands by aeolian abrasion. The coatings impart a red colour to the grains to which previous researchers have assigned variable geomorphological signi?cance. The quantities of iron removed during a 120 hour abrasion experiment are small (99 mg kg^?1) and dif?cult to detect by eye; however, high resolution spectroscopy clearly indicates that ferric oxides are released during abrasion and the re?ectance of the particles alters. One of the products of aeolian abrasion is ?ne particles (<10 µm diameter) with the potential for long distance transport. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rock albedo and monitoring of thermal conditions in respect of weathering: some expected and some unexpected results

Broadly speaking, there is, at least within geomorphic circles, a general acceptance that rocks with low albedos will warm both faster and to higher temperatures than rocks with high albedos, reflectivity influencing radiative warming. Upon this foundation are built notions of weathering in respect of the resulting thermal differences, both at the grain scale and at the scale of rock masses. Here, a series of paving bricks painted in 20 per cent reflectivity intervals from black through to white were used to monitor albedo‐influenced temperatures at a site in northern Canada in an attempt to test this premise. Temperatures were collected, for five months, for the rock surface and the base of the rock, the blocks being set within a mass of local sediment. Resulting thermal data did indeed show that the dark bricks were warmer than the white but only when their temperatures were equal to or cooler than the air temperature. As brick temperature exceeded that of the air, so the dark and light bricks moved to parity; indeed, the white bricks frequently became warmer than the dark. It is argued that this ‘negating’ of the albedo influence on heating is a result of the necessity of the bricks, both white and black, to convect heat away to the surrounding cooler air; the darker brick, being hotter, initially convects faster than the white as a product of the temperature difference between the two media. Thus, where the bricks become significantly hotter than the air, they lose energy to that air and so their respective temperatures become closer, the albedo influence being superceded by the requirement to equilibrate with the surrounding air. It is argued that this finding will have importance to our understanding of weathering in general and to our perceptions of weathering differences between different lithologies. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coherence methods in mapping AVO anomalies and predicting P-wave and S-wave impedances

Filters for migrated offset substacks are designed by partial coherence analysis to predict ‘normal’ amplitude variation with offset (AVO) in an anomaly free area. The same prediction filters generate localized prediction errors when applied in an AVO‐anomalous interval. These prediction errors are quantitatively related to the AVO gradient anomalies in a background that is related to the minimum AVO anomaly detectable from the data. The prediction‐error section is thus used to define a reliability threshold for the identification of AVO anomalies. Coherence analysis also enables quality control of AVO analysis and inversion. For example, predictions that are non‐localized and/or do not show structural conformity may indicate spatial variations in amplitude–offset scaling, seismic wavelet or signal‐to‐noise (S/N) ratio content. Scaling and waveform variations can be identified from inspection of the prediction filters and their frequency responses. S/N ratios can be estimated via multiple coherence analysis. AVO inversion of seismic data is unstable if not constrained. However, the use of a constraint on the estimated parameters has the undesirable effect of introducing biases into the inverted results: an additional bias‐correction step is then needed to retrieve unbiased results. An alternative form of AVO inversion that avoids additional corrections is proposed. This inversion is also fast as it inverts only AVO anomalies. A spectral coherence matching technique is employed to transform a zero‐offset extrapolation or near‐offset substack into P‐wave impedance. The same technique is applied to the prediction‐error section obtained by means of partial coherence, in order to estimate S‐wave velocity to P‐wave velocity (V_S/V_P) ratios. Both techniques assume that accurate well ties, reliable density measurements and P‐wave and S‐wave velocity logs are available, and that impedance contrasts are not too strong. A full Zoeppritz inversion is required when impedance contrasts that are too high are encountered. An added assumption is made for the inversion to the V_S/V_P ratio, i.e. the Gassmann fluid‐substitution theory is valid within the reservoir area. One synthetic example and one real North Sea in‐line survey illustrate the application of the two coherence methods.     

Variation in nitrate and calcium as indicators of recharge pathways in Nolte Spring, PA

This study documents variations in calcium and nitrate concentrations that suggest changes in recharge pathways in a karst spring. The nitrate concentrations increased at the end of the growing season, showing the importance of the soil zone in the recharge pathway. The increase occurred over just a few days, which may be indicative of a change in contribution of baseflow in different seasons from deep to shallow groundwater. The calcium concentrations decreased several days after storm events. A change in the carbonate equilibrium is hypothesized because chloride was not diluted during these events. The decrease in calcium could be due to outgassing and calcite precipitation in the recharge area when older, higher ionic strength matrix water mixes with stormwater in open conduits. The use of geochemical indicators to better understand recharge pathways benefited from long-term monitoring and periods of daily sampling.     

Groundwater control of mangrove surface elevation: Shrink and swell varies with soil depth

We measured monthly soil surface elevation change and determined its relationship to groundwater changes at a mangrove forest site along Shark River, Everglades National Park, Florida. We combined the use of an original design, surface elevation table with new rod-surface elevation tables to separately track changes in the mid zone (0–4 m), the shallow root zone (0–0.35 m), and the full sediment profile (0–6 m) in response to site hydrology (daily river stage and daily groundwater piezometric pressure). We calculated expansion and contraction for each of the four constituent soil zones (surface [accretion and erosion; above 0 m], shallow zone [0–0.35 m], middle zone [0.35–4 m], and bottom zone [4–6]) that comprise the entire soil column. Changes in groundwater pressure correlated strongly, with changes in soil elevation for the entire profile (Adjusted R² = 0.90); this relationship was not proportional to the depth of the soil profile sampled. The change in thickness of the bottom soil zone accounted for the majority (R² = 0.63) of the entire soil profile expansion and contraction. The influence of hydrology on specific soil zones and absolute elevation change must be considered when evaluating the effect of disturbances, sea level rise, and water management decisions on coastal wetland systems.