Empirical relationships between aftershock area dimensions and magnitude for earthquakes in the Mediterranean Sea region

Fault dimension estimates derived from the aftershock area extent of 36 shallow depth (≤ 31 km) earthquakes that occurred in the Mediterranean Sea region have been used in order to establish empirical relationships between length, width, area and surface-wave/moment magnitude. This dataset consists of events whose aftershock sequence was recorded by a dense local or regional network and the reported location errors did not exceed on average 3–5 km. Surface-wave magnitudes for these events were obtained from the NEIC database and/or published reports, while moment magnitudes as well as focal mechanisms were available from the Harvard/USGS catalogues. Contrary to the results of some previously published studies we found no evidence in our dataset that faulting type may have an effect on the fault dimension estimates and therefore we derived relationships for the whole of the dataset. Comparisons, by means of statistical F-tests, of our relationships with other previously published regional and global relationships were performed in order to check possible similarities or differences. Most such comparisons showed relatively low significance levels (< 95%), since the differences in source dimension estimates were large mainly for magnitudes lower than 6.5, becoming smaller with increasing magnitude. Some degree of similarity, however, could be observed between our fault length relationship and the one derived from aftershock area lengths of events in Greece, while a difference was found between our regional and global fault length relationships. A calculation of the ratio defined as the fault length, derived from our relationships, to the length estimated from regional empirical relationships involving surface ruptures showed that it can take a maximum value of about 7 for small magnitudes while it approaches unity at Ms 7.2. When calculating the same ratio using instead global empirical relationships we see the maximum value not exceeding 1.8, while unity is reached at Mw 7.8, indicating the existence of a strong regional variation in the fault lengths of earthquakes occurring in the Mediterranean Sea region. Also, a relationship between the logarithms of the rupture area and seismic moment is established and it is inferred that there is some variation of stress drop as a function of seismic moment. In particular, it is observed that for magnitudes lower than 6.6 the stress drop fluctuates around 10 bar, while for larger magnitudes the stress drop reaches a value as high as 60 bar.     

Vegetation controls on small‐scale runoff and erosion dynamics in a degrading dryland environment

This paper investigates the controls of vegetation on runoff and erosion dynamics in the dryland environment of Jornada, New Mexico, USA. As the American southwest has seen significant shifts in the dominant vegetation species in the past 150 years, an understanding of the vegetation effects on hydrological and erosional processes is vital for understanding and managing environmental change. Small‐scale rainfall simulations were carried out to identify the hydrological and erosional processes resulting from the grassland and shrubland vegetation species. Results obtained using tree‐regression analysis suggested that the primary vegetation control on runoff and erosion is the shrub type and canopy density, which directly affects the local microtopographic gradient of mounds beneath the shrubs. Significant interactions and feedbacks were found to occur among the local mound gradient, crust cover, soil aggregate stability and antecedent soil moisture between the different vegetation species for both the runoff and erosion responses. Although some of the shrub species were found to produce higher sediment yields than the grass species, the distinguishing feature of the grassland was the significantly higher enrichment in the fine sediment fraction compared to all other surface cover types. This enrichment in fines has important implications for nutrient movement in such environments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time delays in the correlation between solar activity and the F2 region plasma frequency

The upper ionosphere electron density characterized by the critical frequency foF2 is correlated with solar activity when using monthly medians or averages from longer intervals. When shorter intervals are studied, time delays of different lengths in solar activity effects in the ionosphere are observed. The correlation between the foF2 values and the solar radiation intensity, given by the F10.7 index, is studied using the 1967–2003 data of mid-latitude ionosonde stations spaced at distances greater than 100° in geographical longitude. At which longitude the reaction of foF2 to the changes in solar activity appears sooner depends on the position of the interval studied in the 22-year solar cycle.     

Using Lightning Data to Better Understand and Predict Flash Floods in the Mediterranean

One of the costliest natural hazards around the globe is flash floods, resulting from localized intense convective precipitation over short periods of time. Since intense convective rainfall (especially over the continents) is well correlated with lightning activity in these storms, a European Union FP6 FLASH project was realized from 2006 to 2010, focusing on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project, 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms, lightning data were used together with rainfall estimates in order to understand the storms?? development and electrification processes. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the local and synoptic conditions leading to such intense and damaging storms. As part of this project, tools for short-term predictions (nowcasts) of intense convection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long-term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection, were developed and employed. The project also focused on educational outreach through a special Web site http://flashproject.org supplying real-time lightning observations, real-time experimental nowcasts, medium-range weather forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be prevented, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in real time, for warning the public, end-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods.     

Meiobenthic diversity in space and time: The case of harpacticoid copepods in two Mediterranean microtidal sandy beaches

Meiobenthic data from two microtidal sandy beaches of the eastern Mediterranean (Crete, Greece) were used to investigate patterns of both alpha and beta diversity in space and time. Copepod assemblages and environmental variables related to sediment characteristics, morphodynamics and food were studied over a year at four distinct habitats at each beach; the retention, resurgence and saturation zones of Salvat's intertidal scheme (midlittoral zone), and the surf zone of the sublittoral. Αlpha diversity analysis indicated similar species richness at both beaches when the whole 13-month data set was considered but was higher at the sheltered site when each sampling period was examined separately. Both beaches supported higher diversity in the sublittoral zone. Species richness increased seawards at the midlittoral zone of the sheltered site whereas, no pattern was evident at the exposed site, where the intense hydrodynamic conditions homogenized the sediments. Beta diversity increased markedly towards the sublittoral, indicating greater differences in alpha diversity between the sublittoral and the midlittoral zone. Species turnover was more variable at the exposed beach and at the most landward stations, where environmental conditions change often between extremes. A proportion of the variation in alpha diversity was explained by food availability at both beaches and additionally by grain size at the sheltered site. However, no environmental variable explained beta diversity patterns. Although the results of our study support the hypothesis of Multicausal Environmental Severity proposed for sandy beach macrofauna, we believe the classic Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis is a more appropriate framework for the meiofauna communities of the studied sites.     

Algebraic estimation of the specific storage from slug tests in confined aquifers in the overdamped case

Hydrogeology Journal - A simple method is presented for estimating the specific storage of a confined aquifer from an overdamped slug test in a fully penetrating well. This method is based on the...     

Transport system management under extreme weather risks: views to project appraisal,asset value protection and risk-aware system management

Until recently, research on potential economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on transport infrastructure was scarce, but currently this area is rapidly expanding. Indeed, there is a growing international interest, including the European area, regarding the impacts of extreme weather and climate change on the management of various transportation modes. This paper reviews briefly the present status regarding the knowledge of financial aspects of extreme weather impacts on transportation, using recent research findings from Europe, and proposes some new views in cost-benefit analysis, project appraisal and asset value protection for the management of transport systems under extreme weather risks. Quite often, risk management is understood as a response to truly extreme impacts, but this constitutes a misunderstanding. Some values are more extreme than others, and in the context of extreme weather, some weather phenomena are more extreme in their intensity and resulting impacts. An analysis of the level of costs and risks to societies, as a result of extreme weather, reveals that the risks in different European Union member states deviate substantially from each other. Also, the preparedness of different societies to deal with extreme weather events is quite variable. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which has to be dealt with in project appraisal. Although a fully established procedure does not exist, some fundamental ideas of cost-benefit analysis under extreme weather scenarios are presented in this paper, considering accident costs, time costs and infrastructure-related costs (comprising physical damages to infrastructures and increased maintenance costs). Cost-benefit analysis is usually associated with capital investments, but the original idea of cost-benefit analysis is not restricted to investment appraisal. Therefore, activities such as enhanced maintenance, minor upgrades, adoption of new designs, improved information services and others may be subject to cost-benefit analysis. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which apparently has to be dealt with also in project appraisal. A fully established procedure does not exist, although some basic principles have been introduced in analytical format. There is a lack of models to estimate extreme weather impacts and consequences and how to adapt to those costs. Optimising the efforts in maintenance and new design standards is even further away, but constitutes an overwhelming task. In this respect, new approaches and ways of thinking in preserving asset’s residual value, return periods, sustainability and equity and formal methods supplementing cost-benefit analysis are put forward. The paper concludes with a call for the need for more integrated management of transport systems. In particular, it is recognised that the different stages of transport system planning pose their own challenges when assessing the costs and benefits of policy measures, strategies and operational decisions.     

Reverse flood and pollution routing with the lag-and-route model

ABSTRACT

Reverse routing can be used to transfer flood- or pollution-related information monitored at a downstream gauging station to an ungauged upstream cross-section. This signal identification problem is ill-posed and, as such, is sensitive to perturbations in the data to be inverted; therefore, the amplification of errors, e.g., those befalling measurements, must be controlled. Storage routing models are parsimonious diffusion wave substitutes and well suited for conversion to direct reverse routers. We present efficient inversion frameworks based on the lag-and-route (single reservoir plus exact reverse lag-step) and the reservoirs-in-series models. In both cases we invert a centred finite difference scheme of the reservoir storage balance equation that involves only one value of the unknown signal; signal values identified in previous reverse time steps, which would carry perturbations, are absent. This simple structure endows the reverse scheme with robustness. Procedures are verified with perfect and with error-seeded data; solution oscillations caused by the latter are damped by low-pass filtering. Both inverse routing models regain the upstream signals with high fidelity. Reverse storage routing is exemplified in a demonstration of reservoir control and in a field case of solute transport in a stream.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor X. Chen     

Development and verification of a 3-D integrated surface water–groundwater model

Coupled modelling of surface and subsurface systems is a valuable tool for quantifying surface water–groundwater interactions. In the present paper, the 3-D non-steady state Navier–Stokes equations, after Reynolds averaging and with the assumption of a hydrostatic pressure distribution, are for the first time coupled to the 3-D saturated groundwater flow equations in an Integrated suRface watEr–grouNdwater modEl (IRENE). A finite-difference method is used for the solution of the governing equations of IRENE. A semi-implicit scheme is used for the discretisation of the surface water flow equations and a fully implicit scheme for the discretisation of the groundwater flow equations. The two sets of equations are coupled at the common interface of the surface water and groundwater bodies, where water exchange takes place, using Darcy’s law. A new approach is proposed for the solution of the coupled surface water and groundwater equations in a simultaneous manner, in such a fashion that gives computational efficiency at low computational cost. IRENE is verified against three analytical solutions of surface water–groundwater interaction, which are chosen so that different components of the model can be tested. The model closely reproduces the results of the analytical solutions and can therefore be used for analysing and predicting surface water–groundwater interactions in real-world cases.     

Investigation of ‘equal displacement’ rule for bridges subjected to differential support motions

The ‘equal displacement’ rule is employed in seismic design practice to predict inelastic displacements from analyses of the corresponding linear elastic structural models. The accuracy and limitations of this rule have been investigated for ordinary structures but not for bridges subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The present study investigates this rule for moderate levels of inelastic behavior for four highway bridges in California accounting for the effects of spatial variability of the support motions due to incoherence, wave passage and differential site response. The bridge models vary significantly as to their fundamental periods and their overall configurations. Statistical analyses of pier‐drift responses are performed using as input simulated arrays of nonstationary ground motions in accordance with prescribed coherency models. It is found that the ‘equal displacement’ rule is fairly accurate for cases when the fundamental period of the bridge is longer than the transition period between the acceleration‐controlled and velocity‐controlled ranges of the response spectrum. Otherwise, the rule is non‐conservative for cases with large ductility factors and conservative for cases with small ductility factors. Wave passage and incoherence tend to reduce ratios of mean peak inelastic to elastic pier drifts, whereas incorporation of the differential site‐response effect by locating piers on softer soils tends to increase the same ratios. Mild or moderate positive correlation between these ratios and ductility demands is observed in most cases. Effects of spatial variability are more pronounced for longer and stiffer bridges. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.