European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

Does public policy support or undermine climate change adaptation? Exploring policy interplay across different scales of governance

Policy makers have now recognised the need to integrate thinking about climate change into all areas of public policy making. However, the discussion of ‘climate policy integration’ has tended to focus on mitigation decisions mostly taken at international and national levels. Clearly, there is also a more locally focused adaptation dimension to climate policy integration, which has not been adequately explored by academics or policy makers. Drawing on a case study of the UK, this paper adopts both a top-down and a bottom-up perspective to explore how far different sub-elements of policies within the agriculture, nature conservation and water sectors support or undermine potential adaptive responses. The top-down approach, which assumes that policies set explicit aims and objectives that are directly translated into action on the ground, combines a content analysis of policy documents with interviews with policy makers. The bottom-up approach recognises the importance of other actors in shaping policy implementation and involves interviews with actors in organisations within the three sectors. This paper reveals that neither approach offers a complete picture of the potentially enabling or constraining effects of different policies on future adaptive planning, but together they offer new perspectives on climate policy integration. These findings inform a discussion on how to implement climate policy integration, including auditing existing policies and ‘climate proofing’ new ones so they support rather than hinder adaptive planning.     

The study of instabilities in the solar wind and magnetosheath and their interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere

The thesis concentrates on an analysis of the experimental data as well as numerical simulation of propagation of fast forward (FF) shocks in the solar wind and their evolution through the magnetosheath to the inner magnetosphere. The thesis was defended at the Charles University, Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Plasma and Surface Science (V Holesovickach 2, 180 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic) on September 30, 2008 under supervision of Doc. Lubomír P?ech. The thesis is written in English and a resume can be found at http://physics.mff.cuni.cz/kfpp/phd/andreeova.pdf.     

Reducing fugitive methane emissions from the North American oil and gas sector: a proposed science-policy framework

The shale gas boom in the United States spurred a shift in electricity generation from coal to natural gas. Natural gas combined cycle units emit half of the CO₂ to produce the same energy as a coal unit; therefore, the market trend is credited for a reduction in GHG emissions from the US power sector. However, methane that escapes the natural gas supply chain may undercut these relative climate benefits. In 2016, Canada, the United States and Mexico pledged to reduce methane emissions from the oil and natural gas sector 40–45% from 2012 levels by 2025. This article reviews the science-policy landscape of methane measurement and mitigation relevant for meeting this pledge, including changes in US policy following the 2016 presidential election. Considerable policy incoherence exists in all three countries. Reliable inventories remain elusive; despite government and private sector research efforts, the magnitude of methane emissions remains in dispute. Meanwhile, mitigation efforts vary significantly. A framework that integrates science and policy would enable actors to more effectively inform, leverage and pursue advances in methane measurement and mitigation. The framework is applied to North America, but could apply to other geographic contexts.

Key policy insights

• The oil and gas sector’s contribution to atmospheric methane concentrations is becoming an increasingly prominent issue in climate policy.

• Efforts to measure and control fugitive methane emissions do not presently proceed within a coherent framework that integrates science and policy.

• In 2016, the governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States pledged to reduce methane emissions from the oil and natural gas sector 40–45% from 2012 levels by 2025.

• The 2016 presidential election in the United States has halted American progress at the federal level, suggesting a heavier reliance on industry and subnational efforts in that country.

• Collectively or individually, the countries, individual agencies, or private stakeholders could use the proposed North American Methane Reduction framework to direct research, enhance monitoring and evaluate mitigation efforts, and improve the chances that continental methane reduction targets will be achieved.

     

Evaluating a process‐based model for use in streambank stabilization: insights on the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM)

Streambank retreat is a complex cyclical process involving subaerial processes, fluvial erosion, seepage erosion, and geotechnical failures and is driven by several soil properties that themselves are temporally and spatially variable. Therefore, it can be extremely challenging to predict and model the erosion and consequent retreat of streambanks. However, modeling streambank retreat has many important applications, including the design and assessment of mitigation strategies for stream revitalization and stabilization. In order to highlight the current complexities of modeling streambank retreat and to suggest future research areas, this paper reviewed one of the most comprehensive streambank retreat models available, the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), which has recently been integrated with several popular hydrodynamic and sediment transport models including the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC‐RAS). The objectives of this paper were to: (i) comprehensively review studies that have utilized BSTEM and report their findings, (ii) address the limitations of the model so that it can be applied appropriately in its current form, and (iii) suggest directions of research that will help make the model a more useful tool in future applications. The paper includes an extensive overview of peer reviewed studies to guide future users of BSTEM. The review demonstrated that the model needs further testing and evaluation outside of the central United States. Also, further development is needed in terms of accounting for spatial and temporal variability in geotechnical and fluvial erodibility parameters, incorporating subaerial processes, and accounting for the influence of riparian vegetation on streambank pore‐water pressure dynamics, applied shear stress, and erodibility parameters. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A physical model of the high-frequency seismic signal generated by debris flows

We propose a physical model for the high-frequency (>1 Hz) spectral distribution of seismic power generated by debris flows. The modeled debris flow is assumed to have four regions where the impact rate and impulses are controlled by different mechanisms: the flow body, a coarser-grained snout, a snout lip where particles fall from the snout on the bed, and a dilute front composed of saltating particles. We calculate the seismic power produced by this impact model in two end-member scenarios, a thin-flow and thick-flow limit, which assume that the ratio of grain sizes to flow thicknesses are either near unity or much less than unity. The thin-flow limit is more appropriate for boulder-rich flows that are most likely to generate large seismic signals. As a flow passes a seismic station, the rise phase of the seismic amplitude is generated primarily by the snout while the decay phase is generated first by the snout and then the main flow body. The lip and saltating front generate a negligible seismic signal. When ground properties are known, seismic power depends most strongly on both particle diameter and average flow speed cubed, and also depends on length and width of the flow. The effective particle diameter for producing seismic power is substantially higher than the median grain size and close to the 73rd percentile for a realistic grain size distribution. We discuss how the model can be used to estimate effective particle diameter and average flow speed from an integrated measure of seismic power. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

GGR Biennial Critical Review: Analytical Developments Since 2014

This GGR biennial critical review covers developments and innovations in key analytical methods published since January 2014, relevant to the chemical, isotopic and crystallographic characterisation of geological and environmental materials. In nine selected analytical fields, publications considered to be of wide significance are summarised, background information is provided and their importance evaluated. In addition to instrumental technologies, this review also presents a summary of new developments in the preparation and characterisation of rock, microanalytical and isotopic reference materials, including a précis of recent changes and revisions to ISO guidelines for reference material characterisation and reporting. Selected reports are provided of isotope ratio determinations by both solution nebulisation MC‐ICP‐MS and laser ablation‐ICP‐MS, as well as of radioactive isotope geochronology by LA‐ICP‐MS. Most of the analytical techniques elaborated continue to provide new applications for geochemical analysis; however, it is noted that instrumental neutron activation analysis has become less popular in recent years, mostly due to the reduced availability of nuclear reactors to act as a neutron source. Many of the newer applications reported here provide analysis at increasingly finer resolution. Examples include atom probe tomography, a very sensitive method providing atomic scale information, nanoscale SIMS, for isotopic imaging of geological and biological samples, and micro‐XRF, which has a spatial resolution many orders of magnitude smaller than conventional XRF.     

Assessing catch shares' effects evidence from Federal United States and associated British Columbian fisheries

What are the effects of transitioning traditionally managed fisheries to incentive-based catch shares fisheries? In a study of all major United States federal catch share fisheries and associated shared stock fisheries in British Columbia, catch shares result in environmental improvements, economic improvements, and a mixture of changes in social performance, relative to the race for fish under traditional management. Environmentally, compliance with total allowable catch increases and discards decrease. Economically, vessel yields rise, total revenues grow, and long-term stock increases are encouraged. Socially, safety increases, some port areas modestly consolidate, needed processing capacity often reduces, and labor markets shift from part time jobs to full time jobs with similar total employment. Newer catch shares address many social concerns through careful design.     

Coming to the table: Early stakeholder engagement in marine spatial planning

From 2009 to 2011, marine spatial planning (MSP) rapidly gained visibility in the United States as a promising ocean management tool. A few small-scale planning efforts were completed in state waters, and the Obama Administration proposed a framework for large-scale regional MSP throughout the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. During that same time period, the authors engaged a variety of U.S ocean stakeholders in a series of dialogs with several goals: to share information about what MSP is or could be, to hear stakeholder views and concerns about MSP, and to foster better understanding between those who depend on ocean resources for their livelihood and ocean conservation advocates. The stakeholder meetings were supplemented with several rounds of in-depth interviews and a survey. Despite some predictable areas of conflict, project participants agreed on a number of issues related to stakeholder engagement in MSP: all felt strongly that government planners need to engage outsiders earlier, more often, more meaningfully, and through an open and transparent process. Equally important, the project affirmed the value of bringing unlike parties together at the earliest opportunity to learn, talk, and listen to others with whom they rarely engage.     

Development through football in Africa: Neoliberal and postcolonial models of community development

Informed by academic writings on non-governmental organisations (NGOs), critiques of neoliberal development, and postcolonial development theory, this paper explores the relationship between football and development through critical analysis of two contrasting initiatives. One is the Football for Hope Movement (FHM), which was the principal backer of the official campaign of the 2010 FIFA World Cup (FWC), called “20 Centres for 2010”. The second is the Katina 2009 football tournament held under the auspices of a community development project in Uganda sponsored by the Guardian newspaper and Barclays bank in the UK.The initial aim was to identify the particular development models at work within ‘development through football’ initiatives. While an established model of NGO-led community development is certainly apparent, different initiatives suggest a basic distinction between neoliberal and postcolonial variants. The paper identifies and explains the differences while showing how contrasting models become sites of struggle and overlap, to some extent, when translated into development practice. Ultimately, the investigation reveals how football is used as a magnet to draw young people deeper into the operational orbit of NGOs and their donors. The paper also draws attention to new actors and partnerships in international development – most notably the Guardian, whose transformation into a development actor suggests a novel ‘NGO-isation’ of the media itself.