The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.     

Mixing and chemical interdiffusion of trachytic and latitic magma in a subvolcanic complex of the Tertiary Westerwald (Germany)

A special kind of magma mixing is extraordinarily well exposed in the Bittersberg subvolcanic complex in the Tertiary volcanic field of the German Westerwald: A trachytic melt has been penetrated by a latitic dyke which has been dispersed within the host magma as small spherical enclaves (globules). Whole rock analyses of the globules show a change in composition that cannot be explained by a simple mechanical mixing between the endmembers. The most evolved globules have a phonolitic composition. Microprobe measurements in the microlithic matrix of the host rock and the guest indicate a diffusive motion of the alkalis from the host into the globules. On the other hand, an opposite trend can be observed for Ca, Mg, Fe and Ti, which are impoverished in the globules. The trace elements and the middle rare earth elements (MREE) has also been involved in the diffusive exchange. The REE-pattern of the most evolved (phonolitic) globules shows a characteristic trough in the area of the MREE which is almost identical to the REE-pattern of many phonolites. The phonolites and the alkali-rich trachytes of the Westerwald show similar globular textures as the Bittersberg volcanics. Therefore, generation of these rocks involving diffusive element exchange during mixing processes in a magma reservoir situated on a deeper crustal level may be possible.     

Impacts of Methane on Carbon Dioxide Storage in Brine Formations

In the context of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), carbon dioxide (CO₂) is often injected into deep formations saturated with a brine that may contain dissolved light hydrocarbons, such as methane (CH₄). In this multicomponent multiphase displacement process, CO₂ competes with CH₄ in terms of dissolution, and CH₄ tends to exsolve from the aqueous into a gaseous phase. Because CH₄ has a lower viscosity than injected CO₂, CH₄ is swept up into a ‘bank’ of CH₄‐rich gas ahead of the CO₂ displacement front. On the one hand, this may provide a useful tracer signal of an approaching CO₂ front. On the other hand, the emergence of gaseous CH₄ is undesirable because it poses a leakage risk of a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂ if the cap rock is compromised. Open fractures or faults and wells could result in CH₄ contamination of overlying groundwater aquifers as well as surface emissions. We investigate this process through detailed numerical simulations for a large‐scale GCS pilot project (near Cranfield, Mississippi) for which a rich set of field data is available. An accurate cubic‐plus‐association equation‐of‐state is used to describe the non‐linear phase behavior of multiphase brine‐CH₄‐CO₂ mixtures, and breakthrough curves in two observation wells are used to constrain transport processes. Both field data and simulations indeed show the development of an extensive plume of CH₄‐rich (up to 90 mol%) gas as a consequence of CO₂ injection, with important implications for the risk assessment of future GCS projects.     

Spatially distributed hydrotope‐based modelling of evapotranspiration and runoff in mountainous basins

River basins in mountainous regions are characterized by strong variations in topography, vegetation, soils, climatic conditions and snow cover conditions, and all are strongly related to altitude. The high spatial variation needs to be considered when modelling hydrological processes in such catchments. A complex hydrological model, with a great potential to account for spatial variability, was developed and applied for the hourly simulation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, water balance and the runoff components for the period 1993 and 1994 in 12 subcatchments of the alpine/pre‐alpine basin of the River Thur (area 1703 km²). The basin is located in the north‐east of the Swiss part of the Rhine Basin and has an elevation range from 350 to 2500 m a.s.l. A considerable part of the Thur Basin is high mountain area, some of it above the tree‐line and a great part of the basin is snow covered during the winter season. In the distributed hydrological model, the 12 sub‐basins of the Thur catchment were spatially subdivided into sub‐areas (hydrologically similar response units—HRUs or hydrotopes) using a GIS. Within the HRUs a hydrologically similar behaviour was assumed. Spatial interpolations of the meteorological input variables wereemployed for each altitudinal zone. The structure of the model components for snow accumulation and melt, interception, soil water storage and uptake by evapotranspiration, runoff generation and flow routing are briefly outlined. The results of the simulated potential evapotranspiration reflect the dominant role of altitudinal change in radiation and albedo of exposure, followed by the influence of slope. The actual evapotranspiration shows, in comparison with the potential evapotranspiration, a greater variability in the lower and medium altitudinal zones and a smaller variability in the upper elevation zones, which was associated with limitations of available moisture in soil and surface depression storages as well as with the evaporative demand of the local vegetation. The higher altitudinal dependency and variability of runoff results from the strong increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation with increased altitude. An increasing influence of snow cover on runoff as well as evapotranspiration with altitude is obvious. The computed actual evapotranspiration and runoff were evaluated against the observed values of a weighting lysimeter and against runoff hydrographs. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wet Fault or Dry Fault? A Laboratory Approach to Remotely Monitor the Hydro-Mechanical State of a Discontinuity Using Controlled-Source Seismics

Stress variation and fluid migration occur in deformation zones, which are expected to affect seismic waves reflected off or propagating across such structures. We developed a basic experimental approach to monitor the mechanical coupling with respect to seismic coupling across a single discontinuity between a granite sample in contact with a steel platen. Piezoceramics located on the platen were used to both generate and record the P and S wave fields reflected off the discontinuity at normal incidence. This way, normal (B _n ) and tangential (B _t ) compliances were calculated using Schoenberg’s linear slip theory (Schoenberg, J Acoust Soc Am 68:1516–1521, 1980) when the roughness, the effective pressure (P _eff, up to 200 MPa), and the nature of the filling (gas or water) vary. We observe that increasing the effective pressure decreases B _n and B _t , which is interpreted as the effect of the closure of the voids at the interface, permitting more seismic energy to be transmitted across the interface. Values of B _n are significantly higher than those of B _t at low P _eff (<60–80 MPa) in dry conditions, and significantly drop under water-saturated conditions. The water filling the voids therefore helps to transmit the seismic energy of compressional waves across the interface. These results show that the assumption B _n  ≈ B _t commonly found in some theoretical approaches does not always stand. The ratio B _n /B _t actually reflects the type of saturating fluids and the effective pressure, in agreement with other experimental studies. However, we illustrate that only the relative variations of this ratio seem to be relevant, not its absolute value as suggested in previous studies. Consequently, the use of B _n against B _t plots may allow effective pressure variation and the nature of the pore fluid to be inferred. In this respect, this experimental approach at sample scale helps to pave the way for remotely monitoring in the field the hydro-mechanical state of deformation zones, such as seismogenic faults, fractured reservoirs, or lava conduits.     

Cladoceran community composition in tropical semi-arid highland reservoirs in Tigray (Northern Ethiopia): A metacommunity perspective applied to young reservoirs

A field survey of zooplankton communities was carried out in 32 recently established tropical semi-arid reservoirs in the highlands of Northern Ethiopia with the aim to identify to what extent environmental factors determine species composition of the cladoceran community in such isolated and young reservoirs. To address seasonal variation, the survey was carried out both at the beginning and the end of the dry season. A total of 15 species of cladocerans were identified. Daphnia was the most abundant cladoceran genus, and was present in all reservoirs. Using presence-absence data, no association between cladoceran community composition and geographic distance was found. RDA results indicate that the set of environmental variables that explained cladoceran community composition differed among seasons. Depth, altitude and fish biomass showed a significant association with cladoceran community composition during the wet season, whereas variation in cladoceran community structure was associated with phytoplankton biomass in the dry season. The relative abundance of Daphnia was much higher in the pelagic than in the littoral zone of our study systems. Two key groups of pelagic filter-feeding cladocerans, Diaphanosoma and Daphnia, showed a clear pattern, in which one or the other tended to strongly dominate the community. In addition, we observed a negative association between dominance of Daphnia in the zooplankton community and dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community.