珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害工程性适应的损益分析

在全球增暖及海平面上升背景下,风暴潮极端事件愈加严重,修筑海防工程是沿海地区应对和适应风暴潮灾害的主要工程性措施。以珠江三角洲为研究区,基于风暴潮历史灾害数据,分析了风暴潮增水与社会经济损失的关联性;提出了定量评价工程性适应风暴潮灾害的经济损益理论关系模型;推算了未来极端事件情景下,珠江三角洲海防工程建设的适应效果。结果表明,珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害的灾损率与增水呈显著正相关。海防工程建设高度在1.69~11.85 m内处于收益状态,其中5.22 m时收益最大。基于2030年、2050年以及2100年海平面上升叠加风暴潮情景,将海防工程设防标准定为应对2100年20年一遇风暴潮时的收益最大,标准定为应对2100年100年一遇风暴潮时收益最小。     

基于InSAR的城市地下轨道交通沉降与灾害监测

城市地铁建设会对邻域造成地质环境损伤，甚至发生灾变。传统基于点位测量的方法在实际应用过程中存在野外作业周期长、受天气影响及耗费大量人力物力等缺点。因此，本文基于城市地下轨道交通安全施工中的应用需求，以天津市地铁五号线为例，利用27景TerraSAR数据和PS-InSAR时序监测方法，对地下轨道交通地铁站和隧道施工影响进行了监测和评估。结果表明，PS-InSAR能在施工期间监测到地铁线及周边的形变，有利于城市轨道交通全生命健康监测。     

泥石流危险范围预测模型及在昆明东川城区的应用

结合泥石流危险范围模型实验数据,运用多元回归分析方法探讨了泥石流危险范围预测,并进行了误差分析。以昆明市东川城区后山3条泥石流沟为例,运用该模型对其危险范围进行了预测分析,为东川城区泥石流防灾提供了科学依据。     

大型构筑物GNSS监测多路径探测及消除方法研究

本文分析了多路径效应产生的原因及其信号特征,利用相同环境下,相邻周期相同时刻的GNSS观测数据多路径误差应有强相关性的特征,采用逐个观测历元差分和卡尔曼滤波相结合的方法来消弱多路径效应的影响,从而提高大型构筑物GNSS监测的成果精度。     

15~30d延伸期逐日预报在线显示平台的设计与实现

延伸期逐日预报是近年来涌现出的新兴气象业务。详细介绍了浙江省气候中心研发的15~30 d延伸期逐日预报在线显示平台。该平台以CFSv2和DERF2.0两个气候模式的预报产品为依托,基于5日集合平均方案,运用双线性插值技术形成0.25°×0.25°格点预报产品和省、市、县(市、区)三级行政区域站点预报产品,通过绝对误差和空间相关系数两种方法开展预报检验。针对县级气象部门的精细化服务需求,设计了15~30 d预报时间序列显示界面,并通过"包络线法"和"误差线法"分别给出平均气温和降水预报的上下限。业务平台测试版试运行以来表现出较好的预报性能,以2016年4月两次持续性强降水过程为例分析了平台的预报表现,结果表明平台分别提前20 d和16 d预报出这两次过程。针对存在的问题和不足进行了探讨,指出大力发展数值模式解释应用技术和概率预报是业务平台不断走向深入的技术基石。     

ELEMENTARY VIEW OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF THE ATMOSPHERES OF VARIOUS PLANETS

The global mean temperatures of the atmosphere and the surface of various planets of the solar system are deter-mined by taking the system as in radiative equilibrium,with the atmosphere taken as transparent to solar radiation butwith an albedo α,and composed of N layers each of which absorbs all infrared radiation that falls on it,and a top layerof partial absorptivity a,while the surface is taken as black.It is found that,for the earth's atmosphere with α=0.33,N=0,a=0.83,it gives the current observed mean surface temperature T_s=15℃ and the effective mean radiative temper-ature of the atmosphere T_a=242.6K.On the other hand;the atmosphere of Venus is characterized by α=0.70 andN=70,which yields a surface temperature of about 700K.It is also found that surface evaporation and absorption of solar radiation by the atmosphere tend to lower the sur-face temperature.     

广东省大宝山铜矿成矿预测空间数据库建设及成矿信息提取

大宝山矿床是我国著名多金属矿床之一,其中铁、铜硫、钨钼等元素均达到大型规模。据记载,唐宋时期古人即在此开采。随着社会经济的不断发展,矿产开采量的不断加剧,数百年的开采使得矿区内已探明的铁、铜硫、钨钼等多金属矿产资源储量日益枯竭。因此,矿山外围、深部找矿勘探增储工作显得非常迫切。然而,数百年的勘查与开采使得矿区积累了大量的地、物、化、遥数据,从而迫切的需要建立地学空间数据库,对多源空间数据进行科学有效地管理;为成矿信息的提取研究提供可能性。鉴于传统数据库不适应于高效的管理多源数据库,且GIS技术以其高效的数据管理及强大的空间数据处理能力,为多源数据集成找矿提供了一个科学的平台,在成矿信息提取及成矿预测评价中的应用越来越受到国内外学者的高度重视。本文运用ArcSDE Geodatabase和Oracle空间数据库技术,从概念设计、逻辑结构设计、物理设计3大方面系统介绍了大宝山地学空间数据库的设计过程;从图形库的建立、属性库的建立、图形库与属性库的关联3个方面介绍了空间数据库的建立过程,进而完成了大宝山铜矿成矿信息的空间数据库建库工作;完成对成矿数据进行科学有效地存储、查询、处理、运算及更新等操作,从而实现了基于GIS与SDM相结合的技术从数据库中对遥感热液蚀变、地质、物探、化探等有用成矿信息的提取;最终利用SKUA-GOCAD三维平台将多源数据进行三维可视化显示。研究成果可为生产矿山开展的外围、深部找矿勘探工作提供依据。     

Review of Methodologies for Offshore Wind Resource Observation and Assessment

Observation and assessment of wind resources is a prerequisite for wind farm construction. Due to the investment cost of offshore wind farm is very expensive, more accurate assessment of wind resources is needed to reduce their investment risks. From traditional field observation to multi-platform remote sensing and from ordinary mathematical statistics to coupled numerical model simulation, abundant offshore wind data and evolving assessment methods make the results of offshore wind resource assessment more and more reliable. Poor station observations and rich remote sensing data are distinct characteristics of offshore wind data. Technology integration of applying multi-scale coupled models to assimilate multi-source remote sensing and station data is a mainstream development direction of offshore wind resource assessment methods. The wind resource assessment for offshore wind farm should focus on data quality and method selections of data interpolation, wind speed calculation of return period and wind energy parameters adjusted for a long term condition because these factors can significantly affect the operating efficiency of future wind farm.     

Gravity anomalies of the ridge-transform system in the South Atlantic between 31 and 34.5° S: Upwelling centers and variations in crustal thickness

To decipher the distribution of mass anomalies near the earth's surface and their relation to the major tectonic elements of a spreading plate boundary, we have analyzed shipboard gravity data in the vicinity of the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 31–34.5° S. The area of study covers six ridge segments, two major transforms, the Cox and Meteor, and three small offsets or discordant zones. One of these small offsets is an elongate, deep basin at 33.5° S that strikes at about 45° to the adjoining ridge axes.By subtracting from the free-air anomaly the three-dimensional (3-D) effects of the seafloor topography and Moho relief, assuming constant densities of the crust and mantle and constant crustal thickness, we generate the mantle Bouguer anomaly. The mantle Bouguer anomaly is caused by variations in crustal thickness and the temperature and density structure of the mantle. By subtracting from the mantle Bouguer anomaly the effects of the density variations due to the 3-D thermal structure predicted by a simple model of passive flow in the mantle, we calculate the residual gravity anomalies. We interpret residual gravity anomalies in terms of anomalous crustal thickness variations and/or mantle thermal structures that are not considered in the forward model. As inferred from the residual map, the deep, major fracture zone valleys and the median, rift valleys are not isostatically compensated by thin crust. Thin crust may be associated with the broad, inactive segment of the Meteor fracture zone but is not clearly detected in the narrow, active transform zone. On the other hand, the presence of high residual anomalies along the relict trace of the oblique offset at 33.5° S suggests that thin crust may have been generated at an oblique spreading center which has experienced a restricted magma supply. The two smaller offsets at 31.3° S and 32.5° S also show residual anomalies suggesting thin crust but the anomalies are less pronounced than that at the 33.5° S oblique offset. There is a distinct, circular-shaped mantle Bouguer low centered on the shallowest portion of the ridge segment at about 33° S, which may represent upwelling in the form of a mantle plume beneath this ridge, or the progressive, along-axis crustal thinning caused by a centered, localized magma supply zone. Both mantle Bouguer and residual anomalies show a distinct, local low to the west of the ridge south of the 33.5° S oblique offset and relatively high values at and to the east of this ridge segment. We interpret this pattern as an indication that the upwelling center in the mantle for this ridge is off-axis to the west of the ridge.     

中沙和西沙群岛附近海域的浮游硅藻区系

中沙和西沙群岛位于南海中部偏北海区,它们远离大陆,水域开阔,无径流影响,且所处的纬度较低,与我国大陆近海的水性环境和所受大陆气候的影响明显不同。研究中沙和西沙群岛生物区系的特点对于了解生物的地理分布和变迁规律以及合理开发利用其海洋资源是必不可少的。 1973年5月、12月和1974年5月、11月,中国科学院南海海洋研究所在中沙、西沙群岛附近海琙进行浮游植物调査,提出了浮游硅藻名录。1975年5-6月和1976年3-4月中国科学院南海海洋研究所和中国科学院海洋研究所又在该海域进行了浮游硅藻类的定性、定量调查。我们参考这些资料,对该海域的浮游硅藻区系得到如下的初步认识。