BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.     

Thermodynamics and phonon dispersion of pyrope and grossular silicate garnets from ab initio simulations

The phonon dispersion and thermodynamic properties of pyrope (\(\hbox {Mg}_3\hbox {Al}_2\hbox {Si}_3\hbox {O}_{12}\)) and grossular (\(\hbox {Ca}_3\hbox {Al}_2\hbox {Si}_3\hbox {O}_{12}\) ) have been computed by using an ab initio quantum mechanical approach, an all-electron variational Gaussian-type basis set and the B3LYP hybrid functional, as implemented in the Crystal program. Dispersion effects in the phonon bands have been simulated by using supercells of increasing size, containing 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280 and 2160 atoms, corresponding to 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 27 \(\mathbf {k}\) points in the first Brillouin zone. Phonon band structures, density of states and corresponding inelastic neutron scattering spectra are reported. Full convergence of the various thermodynamic properties, in particular entropy (S) and specific heat at constant volume (\(C_\mathrm{{V}}\)), with the number of \(\mathbf {k}\) points is achieved with 27 \(\mathbf {k}\) points. The very regular behavior of the S(T) and \(C_\mathrm{{V}}(T)\) curves as a function of the number of \(\mathbf {k}\) points, determined by high numerical stability of the code, permits extrapolation to an infinite number of \(\mathbf {k}\) points. The limiting value differs from the 27-\(\mathbf {k}\) case by only 0.40 % at 100 K for S (the difference decreasing to 0.11 % at 1000 K) and by 0.29 % (0.05 % at 1000 K) for \(C_\mathrm{{V}}\). The agreement with the experimental data is rather satisfactory. We also address the problem of the relative entropy of pyrope and grossular, a still debated question. Our lattice dynamical calculations correctly describe the larger entropy of pyrope than grossular by taking into account merely vibrational contributions and without invoking “static disorder” of the Mg ions in dodecahedral sites. However, as the computed entropy difference is found to be larger than the experimental one by a factor of 2–3, present calculations cannot exclude possible thermally induced structural changes, which could lead to further conformational contributions to the entropy.     

Ontogenetic and gender-modulated behavioural rhythms in the deep-water decapods Liocarcinus depurator (Brachyura: Portunidae), Munida tenuimana and Munida intermedia (Anomura: Galatheidae)

The regulation and expression of biological rhythms with respect to sex and ontogeny in deep-water benthic decapod crustaceans constitutes an exciting field in marine biology that is far from understood. Liocarcinus depurator , Munida intermedia and Munida tenuimana are ecologically key crustacean decapod species of the Atlantic and Mediterranean shelves and slopes, and their activity rhythms in the field are poorly known. Our aim was to measure the behavioural rhythms of these species, while at the same time defining their type of displacement ( i.e. endobenthic, nektobenthic or benthopelagic). Whether gender and ontogeny modulate the rhythmic behaviour of these decapods is unknown, and we sought to clarify this issue. A temporally scheduled series of trawl hauls and light intensity measures was performed on the western Mediterranean shelf (100–110 m depth) and slope (400–430 m), close to the autumn equinox and the summer solstice. The sex and the size of animals in the catches were analysed. Catch patterns were evaluated through waveform and periodogram analyses. Liocarcinus depurator was captured at night on the shelf, whereas on the slope, animals displayed peaks both in the middle of the day and night. Size-related differences (but no gender differences) were found in its rhythmic behaviour, possibly due to intra-specific competition ( e.g. fighting) between juveniles and adults. Munida intermedia were weakly diurnal in October and both diurnal and nocturnal in June. Munida tenuimana presented no discernible rhythmicity in October, but was nocturnal in June. Both species showed no evident sex or size modulation of their behaviour. Data were interpreted assuming that all tested species present an endobenthic behaviour ( i.e. animals emerge from the substrate during the active phase of their behavioural cycle).     

Pseudo-infinite guide stars for multi-conjugated adaptive optics on extremely large telescopes

We introduce a novel concept to sense the wavefront for adaptive optics purposes in astronomy using a conventional laser beacon. The concept we describe involves treating the light scattered in the mesospheric sodium layer as if it comes from multiple rings located at infinity. Such a concept resembles an inverse Bessel beam and is particularly suitable for multi-conjugated adaptive optics on extremely large telescopes. In fact, as the sensing process uses light apparently coming from infinity, some problems linked to the finite distance and vertical extent of the guide source are solved. Since such a technique is able to sense a wavefront solely in the radial direction, we propose furthermore a novel wavefront sensor by combining the inverse Bessel beam approach with the recently introduced z -invariant technique for a pseudo-infinite guide star sensor.     

Passive seismic prospecting in Venice historical center for impedance contrast mapping

Extensive passive seismic prospecting has been conducted in the historical center of Venice (North Italy) aimed to map subsoil impedance contrast. Venice represents an emblematic study site of the challenging characteristics that can be encountered in historical sites, both stratigraphic and logistical, limiting the application of common microzonation techniques. A total of 82 single station passive HVSR acquisitions and passive surface wave arrays analysis have been performed to estimate the main impedance contrasts of the first subsoil, capable of interaction in terms of resonance with the monumental buildings. The results of the geophysical analysis have been integrated with available stratigraphic information derived from published researches and from hundreds of boreholes stored in an institutional database. The results have been then analyzed by means of a geostatistical approach based on cokriging interpolation, which permitted to map the impedance contrast beneath the ancient historical center. The adopted interpolation algorithm permitted to map the impedance contrast with an integrated use of existing information based on HVSR acquisitions and stratigraphic data. The map of impedance contrast is congruent with the literature geo-engineering evidences such as subsidence and geological reconstructions. The achieved results open new perspectives for the use and analysis of passive seismic techniques in challenging environments as historical urban centers characterized by high subsoil heterogeneity. Moreover, an improved knowledge of the shallow stratigraphy would permit to shed light on the complex interactions between anthropic activities and geoenvironmental processes, including climate change that characterized the long history of Venice.     

The Maoxian landslide as seen from space: detecting precursors of failure with Sentinel-1 data

Post-event Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis on a stack of 45 C-band SAR images acquired by the ESA Sentinel-1 satellites from 9 October 2014 to 19 June 2017 allowed the identification of a clear precursory deformation signal for the Maoxian landslide (Mao County, Sichuan Province, China). The landslide occurred in the early morning of 24 June 2017 and killed more than 100 people in the village of Xinmo. Sentinel-1 images have been processed through an advanced multi-interferogram analysis capable of maximising the density of measurement points, generating ground deformation maps and displacement time series for an area of 460 km² straddling the Minjiang River and the Songping Gully. InSAR data clearly show the precursors of the slope failure in the source area of the Maoxian landslide, with a maximum displacement rate detected of 27 mm/year along the line of sight of the satellite. Deformation time series of measurement points identified within the main scarp of the landslide exhibit an acceleration starting from April 2017. A detailed time series analysis leads to the classification of different deformation behaviours. The Fukuzono method for forecasting the time of failure appear to be applicable to the displacement data exhibiting progressive acceleration. Results suggest that satellite radar data, systematically acquired over large areas with short revisiting time, could be used not only as a tool for mapping unstable areas, but also for landslide monitoring, at least for some typologies of sliding phenomena.     

Distinguishing active and legacy source contributions to stream water quality: Comparative quantification for chloride and metals

Hydrochemical constituents in streams may originate from currently active sources at the surface and/or legacy sources from earlier surface inputs, waste deposits and land contamination. Distinction and quantification of these source contributions are needed for improved interpretation of tracer data and effective reduction of waterborne environmental pollutants. This article develops a methodology that recognizes and quantifies some general mechanistic differences in stream concentration and load behavior versus discharge between such source contributions. The methodology is applied to comparative analysis of stream concentration data for chloride (Cl⁻), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn), and corresponding data for water discharge, measured over the period 1990–2018 in multiple hydrological catchments (19 for Cl⁻, 11 for Cu and Zn, 10 for Pb) around the major Lake Mälaren in Sweden. For Cl⁻, the average load fraction of active sources is quantified to be 19%, and the average active and legacy concentration contributions as 2.9 and 11 mg/L, respectively. For the metals, the average active load fractions at outlets are 1%–3% over all catchments and 9%–14% in the relatively few catchments with mixed metal sources. Average active and legacy concentration contributions are 0.14 and 3.2 μg/L for Cu, 0.05 and 1.5 μg/L for Pb, and 1.4 and 12 μg/L for Zn, respectively. This multi-catchment analysis thus indicates a widespread prevalence of legacy sources, with greater legacy than active concentration contributions for both Cl⁻ and the metals, and active contributions playing a greater role for chloride than for the metals. The relatively simple first-order methodology developed and applied in the study can be used to screen commonly available stream monitoring data for possible distinction of active and legacy contributions of any hydrochemical constituent in and across various hydrological catchment settings.     

Biogeochemical processes involving dissolved CO2 and CH4 at Albano, Averno, and Monticchio meromictic volcanic lakes (Central–Southern Italy)

This paper focuses on the chemical and isotopic features of dissolved gases (CH₄ and CO₂) from four meromictic lakes hosted in volcanic systems of Central–Southern Italy: Lake Albano (Alban Hills), Lake Averno (Phlegrean Fields), and Monticchio Grande and Piccolo lakes (Mt. Vulture). Deep waters in these lakes are characterized by the presence of a significant reservoir of extra-atmospheric dissolved gases mainly consisting of CH₄ and CO₂. The δ¹³C-CH₄ and δD-CH₄ values of dissolved gas samples from the maximum depths of the investigated lakes (from ?66.8 to ?55.6?‰ V-PDB and from ?279 to ?195?‰ V-SMOW, respectively) suggest that CH₄ is mainly produced by microbial activity. The δ¹³C-CO₂ values of Lake Grande, Lake Piccolo, and Lake Albano (ranging from ?5.8 to ?0.4?‰ V-PDB) indicate a significant CO₂ contribution from sublacustrine vents originating from (1) mantle degassing and (2) thermometamorphic reactions involving limestone, i.e., the same CO₂ source feeding the regional thermal and cold CO₂-rich fluid emissions. In contrast, the relatively low δ¹³C-CO₂ values (from ?13.4 to ?8.2?‰ V-PDB) of Lake Averno indicate a prevalent organic CO₂. Chemical and isotopic compositions of dissolved CO₂ and CH₄ at different depths are mainly depending on (1) CO₂ inputs from external sources (hydrothermal and/or anthropogenic); (2) CO₂–CH₄ isotopic exchange; and (3) methanogenic and methanotrophic activity. In the epilimnion, vertical water mixing, free oxygen availability, and photosynthesis cause the dramatic decrease of both CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations. In the hypolimnion, where the δ¹³C-CO₂ values progressively increase with depth and the δ¹³C-CH₄ values show an opposite trend, biogenic CO₂ production from CH₄ using different electron donor species, such as sulfate, tend to counteract the methanogenesis process whose efficiency achieves its climax at the water–bottom sediment interface. Theoretical values, calculated on the basis of δ¹³C-CO₂ values, and measured δ¹³C_TDIC values are not consistent, indicating that CO₂ and the main carbon-bearing ion species (HCO₃ ^?) are not in isotopic equilibrium, likely due to the fast kinetics of biochemical processes involving both CO₂ and CH₄. This study demonstrates that the vertical patterns of the CO₂/CH₄ ratio and of δ¹³C-CO₂ and δ¹³C-CH₄ are to be regarded as promising tools to detect perturbations, related to different causes, such as changes in the CO₂ input from sublacustrine springs, that may affect aerobic and anaerobic layers of meromictic volcanic lakes.     

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy)

The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.