Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

A Late Cretaceous mammalian dentary from the Ashizawa Formation (Futaba Group), Fukushima,northeastern Japan

A mammalian dentary discovered in the Coniacian Ashizawa Formation (Fukushima, northeastern Japan) is described. The specimen is a fragment of the horizontal ramus of a left edentulous dentary with five alveoli, the distal four of which are plugged with broken roots. Based on the morphologies of the dentary and the roots, it is considered to be of a therian mammal. This constitutes the first discovery of a Mesozoic mammal in northeastern Japan and highlights the potential for future mammal discoveries in the Cretaceous System in northeastern Japan, which will be significant for disclosure of the mammalian faunal evolution in East Asia during the Late Cretaceous.     

Investigation of ULF Seismo-Magnetic Phenomena in Kanto, Japan During 2000–2010: Case Studies and Statistical Studies

In order to clarify the ultra low frequency (ULF) seismo-magnetic phenomena, a sensitive geomagnetic network has been installed in Kanto, Japan. In this study, we have analyzed geomagnetic data observed during the past decade in Izu and Boso Peninsulas. Energy of ULF geomagnetic signals at the frequency around 0.01 Hz has been investigated by wavelet transform analysis. To identify anomalous changes in ionospheric disturbances, the station Memabutsu has been chosen as a reference station. Case studies of magnitude 6 class earthquakes have demonstrated that there are unusual geomagnetic energy enhancements in the vertical component before the main shocks. Statistical studies by superposed epoch analysis have indicated that, before a sizeable earthquake, there are clearly higher probabilities of ULF anomalies than after the earthquake: statistical results of daily counts were found significant at about 3–4 weeks before, 1 week before, few days before, and 1 day after the event for Seikoshi station in Izu and around 2 weeks before, few days before, and 1 day after the event for Kiyosumi station in Boso, respectively.     

Predicting the displacement of triple pendulum™ bearings in a full‐scale shaking experiment using a three‐dimensional element

The accuracy of a series spring model to predict the peak displacement and displacement history of Triple Pendulum? (TP) bearings in a strongly shaken, full‐scale building is evaluated in this paper. The series spring model was implemented as a self‐contained three‐dimensional TP bearing element in OpenSees and is now available for general use. The TP bearing element contains the option for constant friction or a generalized friction model that accounts for the effect of instantaneous velocity and compression load on the friction coefficient. Comparison between numerical simulation and experimental data of a five‐story steel moment frame building shows that the peak displacement of isolation system can generally be predicted with confidence using a constant friction coefficient model. The friction coefficient model accounting for the effect of axial load and velocity leads to minor improvement over the constant friction coefficient models in some cases. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Full‐scale shaking table test of a base‐isolated medical facility subjected to vertical motions

Base isolation is a well known technology that has been proven to reduce structural response to horizontal ground accelerations. However, vertical response still remains a topic of concern for base‐isolated buildings, perhaps more so than in fixed‐base buildings as isolation is often used when high performance is required. To investigate the effects of vertical response on building contents and nonstructural components, a series of full‐scale shaking table tests were conducted at the E‐Defense facility in Japan. A four‐story base‐isolated reinforced concrete building was outfitted as a medical facility with a wide variety of contents, and the behavior of the contents was observed. The rubber base isolation system was found to significantly amplify vertical accelerations in some cases. However, the damage caused by the vertical ground motions was not detrimental when peak vertical floor accelerations remained below 2 g with three exceptions: (1) small items placed on shelves slid or toppled; (2) objects jumped when placed on nonrigid furniture, which tended to increase the response; and (3) equipment with vertical eccentricities rocked and jumped. In these tests, all equipment and nonstructural components remained functional after shaking. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Survey in Rikuzentakata and Comparison with Historical Events

On 11 March 2011, a moment magnitude M _w = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Japan Tohoku coast causing catastrophic damage and loss of human lives. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, we conducted the reconnaissance survey in the city of Rikuzentakata, Japan. In comparison with three previous historical tsunamis impacting the same region, the 2011 event presented the largest values with respect to the tsunami height, the inundation area and the inundation distance. A representative tsunami height of 15 m was recorded in Rikuzentakata, with increased heights of 20 m around rocky headlands. In terms of the inundation area, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which ranks second among the four events compared. The maximum tsunami inundation distance was 8.1 km along the Kesen River, exceeding the 1933 Showa and 1960 Chilean tsunami inundations by factors of 6.2 and 2.7, respectively. The overland tsunami inundation distance was less than 2 km. The tsunami inundation height linearly decreased along the Kesen River at a rate of approximately 1 m/km. Nevertheless, the measured inland tsunami heights exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. A designated “tsunami control forest” planted with a cross-shore width of about 200 m along a 2 km stretch of Rikuzentakata coastline was completely overrun and failed to protect the local community during this extreme event. Similarly, many designated tsunami shelters were too low and were overwashed by tsunami waves, thereby failing to provide shelter for evacuees—a risk that had been underestimated.     

Sedimentary Crust and Metallogeny of Granitoid Affinity: Implications from the Geotectonic Histories of the Circum‐Japan Sea Region,Central Andes and Southeastern Australia

Metallogeny of granitoid affinity was reviewed from the aspect of geotectonic history of the continental crust, particularly of the genesis of sedimentary crust involved in magmatism. The redox state of granitoids and related mineralization shows a remarkable contrast between the east and west sides of the Pacific Rim, but if examined closely, the reduced‐type and oxidized‐type granitoid provinces are juxtaposed in three regions: the circum‐Japan Sea region, the central Andes, and the Lachlan Fold Belt in southeastern Australia. Comparative study of these regions revealed that the reduced‐type magmatism associated with Sn mineralization generated in thick sedimentary crust which formed in three geotectonic environments: (i) accretionary terrane along a subduction zone (e.g. Jurassic East Asia), (ii) continental rift (e.g. Early Paleozoic Andes), and (iii) mega‐fan (e.g. Early Paleozoic southeastern Australia). A collisional orogen can provide large amounts of clastic sediment to these environments. The age gap between the magmatism and sedimentation varies depending on the tectonic evolution of individual regions. Thin sedimentary crust may not play an essential role for the reduced‐type magmatism. The oxidized‐type magmatism associated with porphyry Cu and other mineralization generated in the crust which was initially carbon‐free igneous crust or modified from sedimentary crust by magmatism. Subduction‐related basaltic magmas are relatively oxidized, and may enhance fO₂ conditions of granitoid activity. Repeated magmatism in a monotonous convergent margin may be favorable for porphyry Cu mineralization as exemplified in the eastern Pacific Rim.     

Physical Meaning of Stress Difference for Fault-Slip Analysis

Recent stress tensor inversion methods for fault-slip analysis are used to distinguish between multiple stress states to elucidate spatiotemporal change of the earth’s crustal tectonics. An estimator named the stress difference has been a practicable tool to measure the difference between stress solutions of inversion analysis. This measure corresponds to the expected difference in shear stress direction on a randomly oriented fault plane, which is, however, an approximation including several degrees of deviation. This study investigated the formula of stress difference and found the exact physical meaning, specifically the expected difference in shear stress vector which carries information on magnitude as well as direction. The present discovery is based on the analytical proportionality between the second invariant of stress tensor and the root mean square magnitude of shear stress for all orientation of fault planes. The meaningless difference in non-dimensional shear stress magnitude was found to be incorporated into the value of stress difference. This fact is not convenient for fault-slip analysis dealing only with orientations.     

Lunar gravity field determination using SELENE same-beam differential VLBI tracking data

A lunar gravity field model up to degree and order 100 in spherical harmonics, named SGM100i, has been determined from SELENE and historical tracking data, with an emphasis on using same-beam S-band differential VLBI data obtained in the SELENE mission between January 2008 and February 2009. Orbit consistency throughout the entire mission period of SELENE as determined from orbit overlaps for the two sub-satellites of SELENE involved in the VLBI tracking improved consistently from several hundreds of metres to several tens of metres by including differential VLBI data. Through orbits that are better determined, the gravity field model is also improved by including these data. Orbit determination performance for the new model shows improvements over earlier 100th degree and order models, especially for edge-on orbits over the deep far side. Lunar Prospector orbit determination shows an improvement of orbit consistency from 1-day predictions for 2-day arcs of 6 m in a total sense, with most improvement in the along and cross-track directions. Data fit for the types and satellites involved is also improved. Formal errors for the lower degrees are smaller, and the new model also shows increased correlations with topography over the far side. The estimated value for the lunar GM for this model equals 4902.80080±0.0009 km³/s² (10 sigma). The lunar degree 2 potential Love number k ₂ was also estimated, and has a value of 0.0255 ± 0.0016 (10 sigma as well).     

Air-sea CO2 exchange of beach and near-coastal waters of the Chukchi Sea near Barrow, Alaska

Partial pressure of CO₂ in equilibrium with sample water (pCO₂) for the coastal water in the Chukchi Sea was continuously observed in summer, 2008. Average daily CO₂ flux calculated from the pCO₂ and gas transfer coefficients ranged from −0.144 to −0.0701 g C m⁻² day⁻¹ depending on which gas transfer coefficient was used. The pCO₂ before the landfast ice sheets melted appeared to be highly biologically controlled based on the following information: (1) the diurnal pattern of pCO₂ was strongly correlated with Photosynthetic Photon Flux Density (PPFD); (2) high chlorophyll density was observed during periods of peak uptake; and (3) the day-to-day variation in the pCO₂ strongly correlated with the presence or absence of near-shore ice sheets. The lowest pCO₂ of 35 ppm together with the highest PPFD of 1362 μmol E m⁻² s⁻¹ were observed in the afternoon on June 28 in the presence of sea ice. The very low pCO₂ observed in late June was likely caused by high photosynthetic rates related to high phytoplankton densities typically observed from spring to early summer near the ice edge, and by water low in salinity and CO₂ released by melting sea ice early in the season.