Species distribution modeling: a statistical review with focus in spatio-temporal issues

The use of complex statistical models has recently increased substantially in the context of species distribution behavior. This complexity has made the inferential and predictive processes challenging to perform. The Bayesian approach has become a good option to deal with these models due to the ease with which prior information can be incorporated along with the fact that it provides a more realistic and accurate estimation of uncertainty. In this paper, we first review the sources of information and different approaches (frequentist and Bayesian) to model the distribution of a species. We also discuss the Integrated Nested Laplace approximation as a tool with which to obtain marginal posterior distributions of the parameters involved in these models. We finally discuss some important statistical issues that arise when researchers use species data: the presence of a temporal effect (presenting different spatial and spatio-temporal structures), preferential sampling, spatial misalignment, non-stationarity, imperfect detection, and the excess of zeros.     

Soil properties evaluation in horticultural farms of Florencio Varela,Buenos Aires,Argentina

The south of the green belt of Buenos Aires is one of the most important producers of fresh vegetables in the province. Only few of the horticultural farmers receive professional agronomic advice. For this reason, an excess of supplies are being used, irrigation water quality is unknown and soils are not analyzed. The aim of this work was to evaluate chemical and physico-chemical characteristics of soils from Florencio Varela, Buenos Aires Argentina, which have not been cultivated for over 20 years (NC), under open-Fields Cultivation systems (FC) and under Greenhouses Cultivation systems (GC). The variables analyzed were: pH in water (pH), Electrical Conductivity (EC), Total Nitrogen (TN), Extractable Phosphorus (EP), Total Oxidizable Carbon (TOC), Oxidizable Carbon associated to Mineral fraction (MOC) and Particulate Oxidizable Carbon (POC). The results showed excess of EP, high pH and loss of oxidizable carbon for FC and GC with respect to NC. Furthermore, an incipient salinity was found in GC. Under FC, EC and TN were lower than GC, probably associated with leaching due to rain. Overfertilization is common in horticultural farming in the green belt, where the worst-case scenario is represented by phosphorus due to its low mobility and high residuality. The problems detected show the need for chemical analysis on soils and irrigation water. This will avoid imbalances due to overfertilization and the use of unsuitable water, thereby preventing soil degradation and aquifer contamination.     

Seasonal Blooms of the HAB Dinoflagellate Alexandrium taylori Balech in a New Mediterranean Area (Vulcano, Aeolian Islands)

Abstract. High-biomass blooms of A. taylori Balech have recently been spreading over new Mediterranean areas, with evident adverse effects on the marine ecosystem. In 1999–2000, a new Mediterranean locality was affected by blooms of A. taylori: the West Bay of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Tyrrhenian Sea), with maximum cell densities of 1.2 × 10⁷ cells 1⁻¹ in August 1999 and 4.0 × 10⁶ cells 1⁻¹ in August 2000 observed together with yellowish water discoloration. The seawater samples contained high concentrations of nutrients as DIN (Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen), especially NH₃-N with values of 14.4 μM and TOT-P (Total Phosphorus) with values of 3.2 μM due to the anthropic presence and discharge of untreated sewage. The climatic conditions also seem to influence the occurrence and spreading of the A. taylori blooms in the Vulcano Bay. Clonal cultures of A. taylori , established from Italian and Spanish seawater samples, were used for the sequence analyses of the 5.8S rDNA gene and ITS regions in order to study the genetic variability of different geographical populations of Alexandrium species in the Mediterranean area and to further develop the molecular markers for HAB key-species.     

Steady-state operation of Stromboli volcano,Italy: constraints on the feeding system

Stromboli volcano has been in continuous eruption for several thousand years without major changes in the geometry and feeding system. The thermal structure of its upper part is therefore expected to be close to steady state. In order to mantaim explosive activity, magma must release both gas and heat. It is shown that the thermal and gas budgets of the volcano lead to consistent conclusions. The thermal budget of the volcano is studied by means of a finite-element numerical model under the assumption of conduction heat transfer. It is found that the heat loss through the walls of an eruption conduit is weakly sensitive to the dimensions of underlying magma reservoirs and depends mostly on the radius and length of the conduit. In steady state, this heat loss must be balanced by the cooling of magma which flows through the system. For the magma flux of about 1 kg s^-1 corresponding to normal Strombolian activity, this requires that the conduits are a few meters wide and not deeper than a few hundred meters. This implies the existence of a magma chamber at shallow depth within the volcanic edifice. This conclusion is shown to be consistent with considerations on the thermal effects of degassing. In a Strombolian explosion, the mass ratio of gas to lava is very large, commonly exceeding two, which implies that the thermal evolution of the erupting mixture is dominated by that of the gas phase. The large energy loss due to decompression of the gas phase leads to decreased eruption temperatures. The fact that lava is molten upon eruption implies that the mixture does not rise from more than about 200 m depth. To sustain the magmatic and volcanic activity of Stromboli, a mass flux of magma of a few hundred kilograms per second must be supplied to the upper parts of the edifice. This represents either the rate of magma production from the mantle source feeding the volcano or the rate of magma overturn in the interior of a large chamber.     

The green–blue swing: plasticity of plankton food‐webs in response to coastal oceanographic dynamics

The internal organization of plankton communities plays a key role in biogeochemical cycles and in the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the structure of a marine plankton community (including both unicellular and multicellular organisms) was inferred by applying an ecological network approach to species abundances observed weekly at the long‐term ecological research station MareChiara (LTER‐MC) in the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea, Mediterranean Sea) in the summers of 2002–2009. Two distinct conditions, characterized by different combination of salinity and chlorophyll values, alternated at the site: one influenced by coastal waters, herein named ‘green’, and the other reflecting more offshore conditions, named ‘blue’. The green and blue ‘phases’ showed different keystone biological elements: namely, large diatoms and small‐sized flagellates, respectively. Several correlations amongst species belonging to different trophic groups were found in both phases (connectance ~0.30). In the green phase, several links between phytoplankton and mesozooplankton and within the latter were detected, suggesting matter flow from microbes up to carnivorous zooplankton. A microbial‐loop‐like sub‐web, including mixo‐ and heterotrophic dinoflagellates and ciliates, was present in the green phase, but it was relatively more important in the blue phase. The latter observation suggests a more intense cycling of matter at the microbial trophic level in the blue phase. These results show that different modes of ecological organization can emerge from relatively small changes in the composition of aquatic communities coping with environmental variability. This highlights a significant plasticity in the internal structure of plankton webs, which should be taken into account in predictions of the potential effects of climatic oscillations on aquatic ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles therein.     

Sedimentary humic substances in the northern Adriatic sea (Mediterranean sea)

Humic compounds were determined in sediments collected in an area of the Adriatic sea receiving fresh waters from the river Po. Sediment cores (10 cm) were sectioned into four layers which were analysed separately for redox potential (Eh), total phosphorus (TP), total organic carbon (TOC), humic (HA) and fulvic acid (FA) content. The structure of HA and FA was also investigated. The results showed that the TOC and TP content decreased from the coast to the open-sea stations. Humic and fulvic acid concentrations were also inversely correlated to the distance from the coast. Moreover, the humic and fulvic acids were closely correlated to the total organic content and to the total phosphorus content. The correlations found between humic substances (HS) and TOC and TP, respectively, could be explained both by an in situ formation due to the high content of nutrients and organic matter, and by a common source of HS, TOC and TP, namely the River Po discharge. The predominant presence of aliphatic carbon in the humic structures, the low degree of substitution and the high nitrogen content suggest that primarily humified compounds were formed in situ. Nevertheless, the River Po can act both as supplier of organic matter of which decomposition products lead to the formation of humic compound and as carrier of humified compounds.