Urban stormwater thermal gene expression models for protection of sensitive receiving streams

Thermal impact of typical high‐density residential, industrial, and commercial land uses is a major concern for the health of aquatic life in urban watersheds, especially in smaller, cold, and cool‐water streams. This is the first study of its kind that provides simple easy‐to‐use equations, developed using gene expression programming (GEP) that can guide the assessment and the design of urban stormwater management systems to protect thermally sensitive receiving streams. We developed 3 GEP models using data collected during 3 years (2009–2011) from 4 urban catchments; the first GEP model predicts event mean temperature at the inlet of the pond; the second model predicts the stormwater temperature at the outlet of the pond; and the third model predicts the temperature of the stormwater after flowing through a cooling trench and before discharging to the receiving stream. The new models have high correlation coefficients of 0.90–0.94 and low prediction uncertainty of less than 4% of the median value of the predicted runoff temperatures. Sensitivity analysis shows that climatic factors have the highest influence on the thermal enrichment followed by the catchment characteristics and the key design variables of the stormwater pond and the cooling trench. The general method presented here is easily transferable to other regions of the world (but not necessarily the exact equations developed here); also through sensitivity and parametric analysis, we gained insight on the key factors and their relative importance in modelling thermal enrichment of urban stromwater runoff.     

Evidence of ameliorated Middle Weichselian climate and sub‐arctic environment in the western Baltic region: coring lake sediments at Klintholm,Møn,Denmark

Coring through glaciotectonically stacked Quaternary sediments situated below sea level on the island of Møn, Denmark, recovered a succession of interstadial sediments of Middle Weichselian age. Plant and animal remains including insects found in laminated sand and mud indicate deposition in a lake surrounded by dwarf shrubs, herbs, mosses and rare trees. The insect fauna indicates a mean July temperature of 8–12 °C, suggesting an arctic to sub‐arctic environment, while winter temperatures around ?8 to ?22 °C suggest periglacial conditions with permafrost. Luminescence dating of sediment samples gave ages from 48–29 ka, and radiocarbon dating indicates deposition of plant fragments between 45 and 36 ka BP. The fossil assemblage from Møn shows close resemblance to those from other sites with similar ages found in the vicinity of the western Baltic Basin.     

Modelling groundwater/surface water interaction in a managed riparian chalk valley wetland

Understanding hydrological processes in wetlands may be complicated by management practices and complex groundwater/surface water interactions. This is especially true for wetlands underlain by permeable geology, such as chalk. In this study, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE is used to simulate hydrological processes at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology River Lambourn Observatory, Boxford, Berkshire, UK. This comprises a 10‐ha lowland, chalk valley bottom, riparian wetland designated for its conservation value and scientific interest. Channel management and a compound geology exert important, but to date not completely understood, influences upon hydrological conditions. Model calibration and validation were based upon comparisons of observed and simulated groundwater heads and channel stages over an equally split 20‐month period. Model results are generally consistent with field observations and include short‐term responses to events as well as longer‐term seasonal trends. An intrinsic difficulty in representing compressible, anisotropic soils limited otherwise excellent performance in some areas. Hydrological processes in the wetland are dominated by the interaction between groundwater and surface water. Channel stage provides head boundaries for broad water levels across the wetland, whilst areas of groundwater upwelling control discrete head elevations. A relic surface drainage network confines flooding extents and routes seepage to the main channels. In‐channel macrophyte growth and its management have an acute effect on water levels and the proportional contribution of groundwater and surface water. The implications of model results for management of conservation species and their associated habitats are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

U–Th–Pb monazite dating and the timing of arc–continent collision in East Timor

The Timor Orogen represents one of the youngest arc–continent collisions exposed on the Earth. It has the potential to provide some of the key parameters about how this style of orogeny evolves. However, the metamorphic age of the highest-grade rocks formed in the collision remains controversial. Using U–Th–Pb dating of monazite from amphibolite-grade sillimanite and garnet-bearing schists we show the peak metamorphism occurred at 5.5–4.7 Ma. The young age of the monazite and the presence of significant amounts of common Pb required the development of a new protocol to simultaneously account for the ²³⁰Th disequilibrium and the ²⁰⁷Pb common Pb correction. The new estimate of metamorphic age is consistent with the estimates based on plate reconstructions for the initiation of arc–continent collision in East Timor. The metamorphic event is a result of this collision.     

Compromise not consensus: designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation

With the escalating costs of landslides, the challenge for local authorities is to develop institutional arrangements for landslide risk management that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by those affected. For this purpose, the participation of stakeholders in the decision-making process is mandated by the European Union as a way of improving its perceived legitimacy and transparency. This paper reports on an analytical-deliberative process for selecting landslide risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore in southern Italy. The process was structured as a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included a literature/media review, semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a survey eliciting residents’ views on landslide risk management. The main point of departure in the design of this process was the explicit elicitation and structuring of multiple worldviews (or perspectives) among the participants with respect to the nature of the problem and its solution. Rather than eliciting preferences using decision analytical methods (e.g. utility theory or multi-criteria evaluation), this process built on a body of research—based on the theory of plural rationality—that has teased out the limited number of contending and socially constructed definitions of problem-and-solution that are able to achieve viability. This framing proved effective in structuring participants’ views and arriving at a compromise recommendation (not, as is often aimed for, a consensus) on measures for reducing landslide risk. Experts played a unique role in this process by providing a range of policy options that corresponded to the different perspectives held by the participants.     

Tectonothermal events in the Olympic IOCG Province constrained by apatite and REE-phosphate geochronology

The Olympic iron oxide–copper–gold province in South Australia contains numerous deposits and prospects, including the Olympic Dam Cu–U–Au–Ag deposit and the Acropolis prospect. The Acropolis prospect comprises massive, coarse-grained magnetite–apatite veins partly replaced by a hematite-stable assemblage. The apatite grains in the veins contain zones with abundant inclusions of other minerals (including monazite and xenotime) and low trace-element concentrations relative to the inclusion-free zones. The inclusion-rich apatite zones are interpreted to be formed from the recrystallisation of the inclusion-free apatite and remobilisation of U, Th and rare earth element (REE) from apatite into monazite and xenotime. Apatite, monazite and xenotime are all established U–Th–Pb geochronometers and offer the potential to constrain the alteration history of the Acropolis prospect. The LA-ICPMS U–Pb age of inclusion-free apatite is within error of the age of the host volcanic units (ca 1.59 Ga). Inclusion-rich apatite yields both near-concordant analyses that are within error of the inclusion-free apatite as well as highly disturbed (discordant) analyses. The most concordant analyses of monazite (Th–Pb) inclusions and xenotime (U–Pb) inclusions and rim grains indicate an alteration event occurred at ca 1.37 Ga and possibly also at ca 500 Ma. The disparity in age of the inclusion-rich apatite and the REE-phosphate inclusions (and rim grains) is suggested to be owing to the apatite being initially recrystallised at ca 1.59 Ga and modified again by a later event that also formed (or coarsened) most of the inclusions. Partial resetting of the majority of the monazite inclusions as well as the presence of significant amounts of common Pb has complicated the interpretation of the monazite results. In contrast, xenotime is a more robust geochronometer in this setting. The ages of the two post-1.59 Ga events that appear to have affected the Acropolis prospect do not correspond to any events known to have occurred in the Gawler Craton. The earlier (ca 1.37 Ga) age instead corresponds best with metamorphic–magmatic–hydrothermal activity in Laurentia, consistent with the proximity of Laurentia and the Gawler Craton inferred from palaeogeographic reconstructions. The later (ca 500 Ma) event corresponds to the Delamerian Orogeny and has been shown by prior studies to have also affected the Olympic Dam deposit.     

The evolution of the terrestrial-terminating Irish Sea glacier during the last glaciation

Here we reconstruct the last advance to maximum limits and retreat of the Irish Sea Glacier (ISG), the only land-terminating ice lobe of the western British Irish Ice Sheet. A series of reverse bedrock slopes rendered proglacial lakes endemic, forming time-transgressive moraine- and bedrock-dammed basins that evolved with ice marginal retreat. Combining, for the first time on glacial sediments, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) bleaching profiles for cobbles with single grain and small aliquot OSL measurements on sands, has produced a coherent chronology from these heterogeneously bleached samples. This chronology constrains what is globally an early build-up of ice during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Greenland Stadial (GS) 5, with ice margins reaching south Lancashire by 30 ± 1.2 ka, followed by a 120-km advance at 28.3 ± 1.4 ka reaching its 26.5 ± 1.1 ka maximum extent during GS-3. Early retreat during GS-3 reflects piracy of ice sources shared with the Irish-Sea Ice Stream (ISIS), starving the ISG. With ISG retreat, an opportunistic readvance of Welsh ice during GS-2 rode over the ISG moraines occupying the space vacated, with ice margins oscillating within a substantial glacial over-deepening. Our geomorphological chronosequence shows a glacial system forced by climate but mediated by piracy of ice sources shared with the ISIS, changing flow regimes and fronting environments.     

Transforming local natural resource conflicts to cooperation in a changing climate: Bangladesh and Nepal lessons

ABSTRACT

Since the 1990s, climate change impact discourse has highlighted potential for large scale violent conflicts. However, the role of climate stresses on local conflicts over natural resources, the role of policies and adaptation in these conflicts, and opportunities to enhance cooperation have been neglected. These gaps are addressed in this paper using evidence from participatory action research on 79 cases of local collective action over natural resources that experience conflicts in Bangladesh and Nepal. Climate trends and stresses contributed to just under half of these conflict cases. Nine factors that enable greater cooperation and transformation of conflict are identified. Participatory dialogue and negotiation processes, while not sufficient, changed understanding, attitudes and positions of actors. Many of the communities innovated physical measures to overcome natural resource constraints, underlying conflict, and/or institutional reforms. These changes were informed by improving understanding of resource limitations and indigenous knowledge. Learning networks among community organizations encouraged collective action by sharing successes and creating peer pressure. Incentives for cooperation were important. For example, when community organizations formally permitted excluded traditional resource users to access resources, those actors complied with rules and paid towards management costs. However, elites were able to use policy gaps to capture resources with changed characteristics due to climate change. In most of the cases where conflict persisted, power, policy and institutional barriers prevented community-based organizations from taking up potential adaptations and innovations. Policy frameworks recognizing collective action and supporting flexible innovation in governance and adaptation would enable wider transformation of natural resource conflicts into cooperation.

Key policy insights

• Climate stresses, policy gaps and interventions can all worsen local natural resource conflicts.

• Sectoral knowledge and technical approaches to adaptation are open to elite capture and can foster conflicts.

• Many local natural resource conflicts can be resolved but this requires an enabling environment for participatory dialogue, external facilitation, flexible responses to context, and recognition of disadvantaged stakeholder interests.

• Transforming conflict to greater cooperation mostly involves social and institutional changes, so adaptation policies should focus less on physical works and more on enabling factors such as negotiation, local institutions, knowledge, and incentives.