Horizontal crustal movement in Chinese mainland from 1999 to 2001

The paper introduces the horizontal crustal movement obtained from GPS observations in the regional networks (including the basic network and the fiducial network) of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) carried out in 1999 and 2001. This paper is characterized by the acquisition of the horizontal displacement velocities during the period from 1999 to 2001 at the observation stations in the regional networks with datum definition of a group of stable stations with small mutual displacements in east China. Based on the most detailed map of horizontal crustal movement in Chinese mainland, the division of blocks, their displacements and deformations are studied. An approach to analysis of the intensity of the horizontal crustal deformation is proposed. The general characteristics of the recent horizontal crustal movement in Chinese mainland and that before the Kunlunshan earthquake of M=8.1 on November 14, 2001 are analyzed. Foundation item: The National Development and Programming Project for Key Basic Research (95-13-03-07).     

Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress following the 2001<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 great Kunlun earthquake

The great Kunlun earthquake occurred on Nov. 14, 2001 in Qinghai Province, China. Five large aftershocks with magnitude larger than 5.0 occurred near the Kunlun fault after main shock. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 4 of 5 large aftershocks occurred in areas with Δσ_f>0 (10^?2–10^?1 MPa) and one aftershock occurred in an area with Δσ_f=?0.56 MPa. It is concluded that the permanent fault displacement due to the main shock is the main cause of activity of large aftershocks, but not the whole cause.     

鄂尔多斯盆地北部黄土沙漠区隐蔽薄气层预测

长庆油田公司针对黄土沙漠区低孔、低渗、薄气藏的地震目标处理,经过多年的探索与实践,已形成了一套适合该类气藏特点的储层横向预测技术。在榆林、乌审旗、苏里格庙和神木等地区的上古生界天然气勘探、开发阶段取得了显著效果,使长庆油田上古生界天然气储量连续八年保持稳定增长。本文详细剖析了该技术的应用效果及经验。     

风云2号卫星云图在短时强对流天气预报中的应用

利用风云2号水汽通道的云图进行强对流天气的临近预警，发现每小时1次的风云2号云图对强对流天气有着重要指示作用，尤其水汽图反映了大气中上层的水汽分布，水汽区的活动、干湿区边界、暗区等都与强对流的发生发展有着密切关系，并找出了可以作为临近预警的关键指标，在2003年的几次强对流天气预报中，风云2号云图发挥了很好的作用。     

热带测雨卫星对淮河一次暴雨降水结构与闪电活动的研究

文中利用热带测雨卫星 (TRMM )搭载的测雨雷达 (PR)、闪电成像仪 (LIS)、GOES卫星红外通道辐射亮温(TBB)对 2 0 0 3年淮河汛期一锋面气旋系统的两个时次的探测结果 ,分析研究了降水结构及闪电活动 ,并与“98.7.2 0”武汉附近地区中尺度强降水的结构和闪电活动进行了比较。GOES的TBB、降水系统中的对流降水与层云降水比例、闪电活动频数随时间的变化均能表征锋面气旋系统的发展。TRMMPR探测结果表明 :冷锋降水狭窄细长 ,且均为强对流降水 (特别在冷锋加强时 ) ;暖锋宽广 ,且为大片层云降水 ,但其中存在面积不等的强对流降水云团 ;与“98.7.2 0”武汉附近地区中尺度强降水垂直结构的比较表明 ,锋面气旋降水的最大降水率出现在近地面 ,而中尺度强降水的最大降水率出现在低空 (3.0～ 3.5km) ,表明两者之间的降水微物理过程存在差别。TRMMLIS探测结果表明 :闪电活动均发生在冷锋的强对流降水云团中 ,暖锋中虽有强对流降水 ,但无闪电活动 ;闪电活动频数高所对应的降水廓线中、上部存在大量的冰相粒子。     

湘东北燕山期陆内碰撞造山带金多金属成矿地球化学

文章采用微量元素(包括稀土元素)地球化学示踪方法，着重讨论了金大规模成矿的物质来源、含矿流体来源及含矿流体运移的能量问题。认为湘东北地区金多金属矿床成矿物质和含矿流体具多来源，大规模花岗质岩浆活动能为成矿元素的活化和成矿流体运移提供巨量能源；成矿物质一部分源于深部含矿热液，可能与富铅、富氯、中高温(320℃左右)、相对还原的酸性环境下的气成热液有关，而冷家溪群及相关地层金多金属成矿物质在热液活动和动力变质作用下的活化迁移有利于金多金属的大规模成矿。侏罗纪以来，岩石圈地球动力学转折及伴随的热液作用和动力变质作用对区内金多金属成矿起重要的作用，而岩浆作用、动力作用和/或热液活动影响程度的可能差异，导致了金多金属矿床具有不同的成矿特点。     

On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.     

内外网中转程序介绍

为了防止计算机病毒的干扰,保证基础气象业务的正常运行,阳泉市气象局的局域网分为内网和外网,内网上的计算机用于基础气象业务,外网上的计算机都可以上互连网。为了方便内外网的信息交换,在内外网之间安装一台计算机,运行内外网中转程序,使内外网的文件基本达到同步更新。这样既保证了内网上的计算机运行稳定,又满足了外网上的计算机对内网上气象信息的需求。     

Tropical Precipitation Estimated by GPCP and TRMM PR Observations

In this study, tropical monthly mean precipitation estimated by the latest Global Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） version 2 dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Precipitation Radar （TRMM PR） are compared in temporal and spatial scales in order to comprehend tropical rainfall climatologically. Reasons for the rainfall differences derived from both datasets are discussed. Results show that GPCP and TRMM PR datasets present similar distribution patterns over the Tropics but with some differences in amplitude and location. Generally, the average difference over the ocean of about 0.5 mm d^-1 is larger than that of about 0.1 mm d^-1 over land. Results also show that GPCP tends to underestimate the monthly precipitation over the land region with sparse rain gauges in contrast to regions with a higher density of rain gauge stations. A Probability Distribution Function （PDF） analysis indicates that the GPCP rain rate at its maximum PDF is generally consistent with the TRMM PR rain rate as the latter is less than 8 mm d^-1. When the TRMM PR rain rate is greater than 8 mm d^-1, the GPCP rain rate at its maximum PDF is less by at least 1 mm d^-1 compared to TRMM PR estimates. Results also show an absolute bias of less than 1 mm d^-1 between the two datasets when the rain rate is less than 10 mm d^-1. A large relative bias of the two datasets occurs at weak and heavy rain rates.