Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Summary

This special issue of Climatic Change describes an effort to improve methodology for integrated assessment of impacts and consequences of climatic change. Highlights of the seven foregoing Parts (papers) that constitute this special issue are summarized here. The methodology developed involves construction of scenarios of climate change that are used to drive individual sectoral models for simulating impacts on crop production, irrigation demand, water supply and change in productivity and geography of unmanaged ecosystems. Economic impacts of the changes predicted by integrating the results of the several sectoral simulation models are calculated through an agricultural land-use model. While these analyses were conducted for the conterminous United States alone, their global implications are also considered in this summary as is the need for further improvements in integrated assessment methodology.     

Characterisation of Soot Emitted by Domestic Heating,Aircraft and Cars Using Diesel or Biodiesel

The characterisation of aggregates, like soot, firstly requires the determination of the size distribution of the primary particles. The primary particle size of combustion generated aggregates depends upon the combustion environment and the formation conditions, such as temperature, pressure and fuel-to-air ratio, among others. Since the combustion characteristics are different in the different types of burners, the characterisation of primary particles may offer the possibility to distinguish soot from different sources. In this paper, we present the signature of the primary particles and the aggregates of soot emitted by cars using diesel or biodiesel, by domestic heating, and by aircraft exhausts, which can be considered as the major sources as derived from measurements on transmission electron micrographs. The size distributions of all aggregates types with different aerodynamic diameter were log-normal and quasi-monodisperse. The size distribution of the primary particles for soot emitted by different sources showed minor differences. However, a comparison between the diameter of the primary particles and those obtained using a standard method for carbon black revealed discrepancies. The median diameter of the primary particles was combined with the median number of primary particles in an aggregate to calculate the relative particle surface area available for adsorption. In a similar way, the relative specific surface area was determined. The surface area was measured using the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (B.E.T.) nitrogen adsorption method and the relative surface area available for adsorption was calculated.     

Strongly peraluminous granites of Mesozoic in Eastern Nanling Range,southern China: Petrogenesis and implications for tectonics

The strongly peraluminous granites (SPGs) of Eastern Nanling Range (ENR) are a characteristic of all bearing highly aluminous minerals, such as muscovite±AI-rich biotite±tourmaline±garnet, and lack of cordierite. In respect of petrography, geochemistry, Nd isotope, and single grain zircon U-Pb dating, the representative granite bodies of them are studied. The research shows that these granites were emplaced in two stages, namely 228-225 Ma BP and J2-3 159-156 Ma BP, belonging to Indosinian and early Yanshanian periods, respectively, and they have low εNd(t) values (-10.6--11.1), high A/CNK, Rb/Sr ratios and tDM values (1887-1817 Ma), and REE's tetrad effect (TE1,3=1.13-1.34). In comparison with related geology, petrology and chronology of granites in adjacent regions, it is suggested that Indosinian SPGs of ENR formed in the circumstance of post-collisional extension 20 Ma after the major collision of Indosinian Movement (258-243 Ma BP) in Indo-China Peninsula, and early Yanshanian SPGs formed in the     

Temporal and spatial rupture process of the great Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake of November 14, 2001 from the GDSN long period waveform data

The temporal and spatial rupture process of the 14 November 2001 Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake (KMPE) is obtained by inverting the high signal-to-noise-ratio P-waveform data of vertical components of 20 stations with epicentral distances less than 90°, which are of Global Digital Seismogragh Network (GDSN). The inverted results indicate that the KMPE consists of 3 sub-events. The rupture of the first sub-event initiated at the instrumental epicenter (35.97°N, 90.59°E) and then propagated both westwards and eastwards, extending 140 km westwards at the speed of 4.0 km/s and 80 km eastwards at the speed of 2.2 km/s, which appeared to be an asymmetrical bilateral rupture dominantly from east to west. This sub-event formed a 220-km-long fault. Fifty-two seconds after initiation of the first sub-event, at which time the first sub-event was not over but in its healing phase, the rupture of the second sub-event initiated 220 km west of the epicenter and propagated both westwards and eastwards, extending 50     

Clay mineral records of East Asian monsoon evolution during late Quaternary in the southern South China Sea

High-resolution clay mineral records combined with oxygen isotopic stratigraphy over the past 190 ka during late Quaternary from core MD01-2393 off the Mekong River in the southern South China Sea are reported to reconstruct a history of East Asian monsoon evolution. The dominating clay mineral components indicate a strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with high glacial illite, chlorite, and kaolinite contents and high interglacial smectites content. The provenance analysis indicates the direct input of clay minerals via the Mekong River drainage basin. Illite and chlorite derived mainly from the upper reach of the Mekong River, where physical erosion of meta-sedimentary rocks is dominant. Kaolinite derived mainly from active erosion of inhered clays from reworked sediments in the middle reaches. Smectites originated mainly through bisiallitic soils in the middle to lower reaches of the Mekong River. The smectites/(illite+chlorite) and smectites/kaolinite ratios are determined as mineralogical indicato     

S-wave velocity and Poisson''''s ratio structure of crust in Yunnan and its implication

Receiver function of body wave under the 23 stations in Yunnan was extracted from 3-component broadband digital recording of teleseismic event. Thus, the S-wave velocity structure and distribution characteristics of Poisson's ratio in crust of Yunnan are obtained by inversion. The results show that the crustal thickness is gradually thinned from north to south. The crustal thickness in Zhongdian of northwest reaches as many as 62.0 km and the one in Jinghong of further south end is only 30.2 km. What should be especially noted is that there exists a Moho upheaval running in NS in the Chuxiong region and a Moho concave is generally parallel to it in Dongchuan. In addition, there exists an obvious transversal inhomogeneity for the S-wave velocity structure in upper mantle and crust in the Yunnan region. The low velocity layer exists not only in 10.0-15.0 km in upper crust in some regions, but also in 30.0-40.0 km in lower crust. Generally, the Poisson's ratio is on the high side, however it has a better co     

Climatological distribution of lightning density observed by satellites in China and its circumjacent regions

The 0.5°×0.5°grid resolution distribution of lightning density in China and its circumjacent regions have been analyzed by using the satellite-borne OTD (Apr 1995-Mar 2000) and LIS (Dec 1997-Mar 2003) databases. It is shown that: (i) Firstly, the variability of the lightning density (LD) is particularly pronounced over the different subareas, 9 times greater over the south than the north side of Himalayas Mountains, 2.5 times greater over the eastern than the western area of China. While the maximum and minimum LD are respectively 31.4fl/km2/a (in Guangzhou region) and less than 0.2fl/km2/a (in the desert of western China). Secondly, the LD of China's continent regularly varies with latitude and distance off coast, which is consistent with annual mean precipitation in varying trend. In conclusion, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the China's three-step staircase topography and the latitude are three important factors affecting macro-scale characteristics of the LD distribution, (ii) The regional differences     

Thresholds of geographic environmental elements in sediment yield of drainage basins

Threshold of environmental elements in drainage basin sediment yield refers to, under effect of climate, underlying surface and human activity, a turning point of abrupt changes in drainage sediment yield related to environmental element characteristics. Previous studies on threshold of sediment yield of relevant drainage basins were mainly concentrated on impact of natural zones with a few researches on impact of other environmental elements. Particularly studies on compound environmental element threshold in drainage basin sediment yield remain blank today. Studies indicate that sediment yield in drainage basins is affected by compound interactions and complex actions. Based on single element analysis, the present paper gives quantitatively compound threshold of environmental elements affecting sediment yield of the drainage basin between Hekouzhen and Tongguan in the middle Yellow River by the method of multi-variant, polynomial formula regression analysis.     

Heating status of the Tibetan Plateau from April to June and rainfall and atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia in midsummer

Based on the 1958-1999 monthly averaged reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the rainfall data of 160 Chinese surface stations, the relationship between rainfall and the atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia (EA) in July and the sensible heating (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from April to June (AMJ) is investigated by using the rotational experimental orthogonal function (REOF) method. The results show that the TP is an isolated heating source in this period. The lagged correlation analysis between the first rotational principal component (RPC) of SH over the TP in May and rainfall of EA in July demonstrates that strong SH over the TP before July leads to a positive rainfall anomaly over the TP, the valley between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and the regions south and southeast of the TP, and the Sichuan Basin and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, but less rainfall anomaly over the regions north, northeas