基于遥感影像大数据、卷积神经网络的福建省有效致灾雷电分布模型及应用

为了研究福建省有效致灾雷电的分布情况，基于福建省2004—2012年闪电定位数据及雷击人员伤亡数据、福建省L17级谷歌遥感影像瓦片，引入卷积神经网络模型对遥感影像所在区域是否属于人员活动的属性进行建模、训练和预测，得到福建省人员活动属性的格点产品，结合福建省历史雷电数据对有效致灾的雷电分布情况进行了分析，结果表明：①设计的遥感影像+CNN识别模型具有一定的可行性和准确率，通过显著性水平为0.01的假设检验；②福建省有63.55%的格点为无人员活动区域；③平均有45.36%的闪电落在无人员活动的区域，因地制宜地对其他致灾闪电进行预警是提高应急减灾服务效果的可行途径；④有效致灾雷电密度与历史雷击人员伤亡数据的相关性远大于常规雷电密度与历史雷击人员伤亡数据的相关性，有效致灾雷电分布在表征雷电灾害上比常规雷电分布更具有指示意义。     

新丰江6.1级水库地震前后的波速比变化

广东省新丰江水库区于1962年3月19日发生6.1级地震。本文分析了1961年以来十四年间,特别是主震前后纵、横波速比V_p/V_s的变化过程。结果表明:波速比V_p/V_s在主震前出现了明显的负异常,总异常时间约为十一个月,于震前一个半月返回正常值,在主震震源附近的深水峡谷区异常幅度最大,异常时间和空间范围比一般构造地震的要小.后期几次强余震前也有异常变化。虚波速度在主震前存在某些异常特征。上述波速比的变化可以用扩容模式较好地解释。 波速比值是由两个台站的记录得到的。对虚波速度的计算采用了联合地震参数的方法。     

Oil-generation kinetics for organic facies with Type-II and -IIS kerogen in the Menilite Shales of the Polish Carpathians

The Menilite Shales (Oligocene) of the Polish Carpathians are the source of low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt and some high-sulfur oils in the Carpathian Foredeep. These oil occurrences indicate that the high-sulfur oils in the Foredeep were generated and expelled before major thrusting and the low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt were generated and expelled during or after major thrusting. Two distinct organic facies have been observed in the Menilite Shales. One organic facies has a high clastic sediment input and contains Type-II kerogen. The other organic facies has a lower clastic sediment input and contains Type-IIS kerogen. Representative samples of both organic facies were used to determine kinetic parameters for immiscible oil generation by isothermal hydrous pyrolysis and S₂ generation by non-isothermal open-system pyrolysis. The derived kinetic parameters showed that timing of S₂ generation was not as different between the Type-IIS and -II kerogen based on open-system pyrolysis as compared with immiscible oil generation based on hydrous pyrolysis. Applying these kinetic parameters to a burial history in the Skole unit showed that some expelled oil would have been generated from the organic facies with Type-IIS kerogen before major thrusting with the hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters but not with the open-system pyrolysis kinetic parameters. The inability of open-system pyrolysis to determine earlier petroleum generation from Type-IIS kerogen is attributed to the large polar-rich bitumen component in S₂ generation, rapid loss of sulfur free-radical initiators in the open system, and diminished radical selectivity and rate constant differences at higher temperatures. Hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters are determined in the presence of water at lower temperatures in a closed system, which allows differentiation of bitumen and oil generation, interaction of free-radical initiators, greater radical selectivity, and more distinguishable rate constants as would occur during natural maturation. Kinetic parameters derived from hydrous pyrolysis show good correlations with one another (compensation effect) and kerogen organic-sulfur contents. These correlations allow for indirect determination of hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters on the basis of the organic-sulfur mole fraction of an immature Type-II or -IIS kerogen.     

梁子湖水体P的季节变化与沉积物P释放初步研究

采用分级测定的方法对梁子湖沉积物中无机磷酸盐进行了分析,测定了梁子湖水体P的季节变化,并以室内模拟的方法研究梁子湖沉积物在pH值和温度控制下P的释放特征。研究表明,梁子湖水体P的含量呈明显的季节变化,冬季高,夏季低。沉积物无机磷(P i)中以钙磷(Ca—P)为主(55%~61%),铁磷(Fe—P)次之(28%~33%),铝磷(A l—P)最少(3%~5%)。在梁子湖的入水口和出水口,由于沉积环境影响到P的形态,P的释放明显较湖心高。在试验初期,由于扰动的影响,使得P的释放在第1天比第2天和第3天高,其后P的释放量则迅速增加。温度对P释放影响明显,其具体表现为,30℃时P释放达到峰值的时间比4℃时提前4 d,而且前者峰值比后者高出9倍。pH值对沉积物P释放同样有明显的影响,与正常状态下的湖水条件(pH值为8.5)相比,偏酸(pH值为5.5)和偏碱(pH值为11.5)条件下,P的释放量增加。     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

雾灵山森林公园旅游形象设计

引入反馈调节设计理念，构建了旅游形象设计体系；运用该体系对雾灵山森林公园的旅游形象进行了多方案设计，拟在广泛征询意见的基础上最终裁定该公园的旅游形象方案。     

西北地区泥石流沟形态因素的非线性分析——以兰州市为例

以兰州市区96条主要的泥石流沟为例,利用分形理论的统计自相似性对泥石流沟数的累计分布随沟谷形态要素沟道比降、汇水面积和沟道长度的变化进行了分析;并与不同流域形态要素的分维进行了比较,探讨了分维不同的原因。兰州市区泥石流沟三个形态要素均具有统计意义上的自相似性,其中以汇水面积显示出分维最小(0.46),沟道长度次之(0.71),沟道比降最大(1.09)。分维的大小描述了作为系统的沟谷及其泥石流的形成的空间结构,即分形结构,同时也反映了不同形态要素对系统所起作用的差异,分维越小,所起作用越显著。其结果对西北干旱半干旱地区石流灾害的进一步研究与防治提供了新的思路。     

Research progress on international rivers in Asia

With the regional population growth, socioeconomic development, more and more attention has been paid to issues on the shared water allocation and the transboundary eco-security conservation during the development of water resources in the international rivers. In this paper, the existing major problems on transboundary waters in different sub-regions of Asia, such as water shortage, transboundary waters pollution, fragile eco-environment are discussed. Then, the key scientific issues to be concerned in the next study progress on the basis of the analyses of the new research directions and focus fields are raised: (1) unpredicted changes of the hydrologic and water system, and their impacts on the allocation of the sharing waters by global changes; (2) models of the international cooperation on the international rivers on the studies of international and national water laws or regulations, policies, the relative experiences and the case studies; (3) quantificational assessment on environmental flow, available water, and the comprehensive functions and values of the international watercourse system; (4) studies on transboundary aquatic bio-diversity maintenance, transboundary pollution supervision and treatment under the rules and principles accepted by the riparian states; (5) issues on transboundary compensation at the rules of “payments for using”, “payments for harm” and “compensation for benefit”; (6) using advanced 3S techniques to promote the integrated watershed development and management; and so on.     

大吨位基桩抗压载荷试验中的锚桩预应力保护技术

竖轴向承载力是桩基础设计的重要参数,现场静载试验是目前确定桩基承载力的主要手段之一。本文依托黄陵延安段高速公路洛河特大桥试桩工程,通过对原有工程桩施加预应力,形成了以工程桩为锚桩的锚拔体系。加载过程中试桩应力、锚桩应力及桩顶位移测试,结果表明,结合预应力技术,以工程桩作为锚桩构成桩基础静载试验的锚拔体系是可行的,同时提出了施加预应力大小的原则、方法以及确保后期曾作为锚桩的工程桩有足够承载能力应采取的必要措施。