Floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains — A Polish-Swiss research project

The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish-Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.     

Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting. II: Application,Forecasts for Japan and Venezuela

In order to analyze observed seismicity in central Japan and Venezuela, we applied a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any sequence in the time series. We also explored a scheme for diminishing the effects of a sharp cutoff magnitude threshold in selecting the events to analyze. A main four-event sequence with probability P _c  = 0.991 of not having occurred by chance was identified for earthquakes with M ≥ 8.0 in central Japan. Venezuela is divided, from West to East, into four regions; for each of these, the magnitude ranges and identified sequences are as follows. Region 1: M ≥ 6.0, a six-event sequence with P _c  = 0.923, and a four-event sequence with P _c  = 0.706. Region 2: M ≥ 5.6, a five-event sequence with P _c  = 0.942. Region 3: M ≥ 5.6, a four-event sequence with P _c  = 0.882. Region 4: M ≥ 6.0, a five-event sequence with P _c  = 0.891. Forecasts are made and evaluated for all identified sequences having four or more events and probabilities ≥0.5. The last event of all these sequences was satisfactorily aftcast by previous events. Whether the identified sequences do, in fact, correspond to physical processes resulting in semi-periodic seismicity is, of course, an open question; but the forecasts, properly used, may be useful as a factor in seismic hazard estimation.     

Semi-Periodic Sequences and Extraneous Events in Earthquake Forecasting: I. Theory and Method,Parkfield Application

We present a new method to identify semi-periodic sequences in the occurrence times of large earthquakes, which allows for the presence of multiple semi-periodic sequences and/or events not belonging to any identifiable sequence in the time series. The method, based on the analytic Fourier transform, yields estimates of the departure from periodicity of an observed sequence, and of the probability that the sequence is not due to chance. These estimates are used to make and to evaluate forecasts of future events belonging to each sequence. Numerous tests with synthetic catalogs show that the method is surprisingly capable of correctly identifying sequences, unidentifiable by eye, in complicated time series. Correct identification of a given sequence depends on the number of events it contains, on the sequence’s departure from periodicity, and, in some cases, on the choice of starting and ending times of the analyzed time window; as well as on the total number of events in the time series. Some particular data combinations may result in spectra where significant periods are obscured by large amplitudes artifacts of the transform, but artifacts can be usually recognized because they lack harmonics; thus, in most of these cases, true semi-periodic sequences may not be identified, but no false identifications will be made. A first example of an application of the method to real seismicity data is the analysis of the Parkfield event series. The analysis correctly aftcasts the September 2004 earthquake. Further applications to real data from Japan and Venezuela are shown in a companion paper.     

Molecular and isotopic characterization of organic samples from the wreck of the Saint-Etienne merchant ship (XVIIIth century): Identification of pitch,fat, hair and sulfur

The wreck U Pezzo, excavated within the Saint Florent Gulf in northern Corsica was identified as the pink, Saint Etienne, a merchant ship which sank on January 31, 1769. In order to determine the composition of organic materials used to coat the hull or to waterproof different parts of the pink, a study of several samples, using molecular biomarker and carbon isotopic analysis, was initiated. The results revealed that the remarkable yellow coat, covering the outside planks of the ship’s bottom under the water line, is composed of sulfur, tallow (of ox and not of cetacean origin) and black pitch which corresponds to a mixture called “couroi” or “stuff”. Onboard ropes had been submitted to a tarring treatment with pitch. Hairs mixed with pitch were identified in samples collected between the two layers of the hull or under the sheathing planking. The study also provides a key model for weathering of pitch, as different degrees of degradation were found between the surface and the heart of several samples. Accordingly, molecular parameters for alteration were proposed. Furthermore novel mixed esters between terpenic and diterpenic alcohols and the free major fatty acids (C_14:0, C_16:0, C_18:0) were detected in the yellow coat.     

Chemical and isotopic variations in the Wiśniówka Mała mine pit water,Holy Cross Mountains (south-central Poland)

In 2005 and 2006, hydrogeochemical study was carried out in the bipartite Wiśniówka Mała pit lake of the Holy Cross Mountains (south-central Poland). This is the largest acidic water body in Poland. This report presents the element concentrations in the water and sediment, stable sulfur and oxygen isotope ratios in the soluble sulfates, and stable oxygen isotope ratio in the water. The scope of the investigation also encompassed mineralogical examinations (scanning electron microscope, X-ray diffraction) of the sediment. The results of this study show that there is a spatial and temporal variability in concentrations of most elements and sulfur isotope ratios in the examined pit lake. The water of the western pond displayed a lower pH with a mean of 3.73 and higher conductivity (390 μS cm⁻¹) as well as higher concentrations of sulfates (156 mg L⁻¹) and most of the cations and anions. The concentrations of Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺ averaged 0.8 and 0.4 mg·L⁻¹. In contrast, the eastern pond water revealed a higher pH (mean of 4.36), lower conductivity (293 μS cm⁻¹) and lower sulfate (90 mg L⁻¹) and trace metal levels. Similar variations were recorded in the stable sulfur isotope ratios. The δ³⁴S_V-CDT(SO₄ ²⁻) values in the water of the western pit pond were in the range of −6.7 to −4.6‰ (mean of −5.6‰), whereas that in the eastern pit pond ranged from −2.2 to −0.9‰ (−1.6‰). The alkalinity of the entire lake water was below 0.1 mg·L⁻¹ CaCO₃. No distinct difference in the δ¹⁸O_V-SMOW(SO₄ ²⁻) was noted between the western and eastern pit ponds. Compared to the Purple Pond in the Sudetes (Poland) and similar sites throughout the world, the examined pit lake is highlighted by distinctly low concentrations of sulfates, iron and other trace metals. Based on this and other studies performed in the Holy Cross Mountains, a conclusion can be drawn that the SO₄ ²⁻ in the Wiśniówka Mała pit lake water is a mixture of SO₄ ²⁻ derived from the following sources: (1) pyrite oxidation (especially in the western pond water), (2) leaching of soluble sulfates from soils and waste material, as well as (3) subordinate deposition of airborne sulfate precipitation.     

Applying numerical modeling for designing strategies of effective groundwater remediation

Selection of effective groundwater remediation scenarios is a complex issue that requires understanding of contaminants’ transport processes. The effectiveness of cleanup measures may be verified by fate and transport numerical modeling. The goal of this work was to present the usefulness of fate and transport modeling for planning, verification and fulfillment of effective groundwater remediation methods. Selection methodology was developed, which is based on results of numerical flow and transport modeling. A field site located in south-east Poland was selected as a case study, in which groundwater contamination of trichloroethene and tetrachloroethene was detected. The results indicated that “pump and treat” was the most effective among the studied remediation methods, followed by permeable reactive barrier and in situ chemical oxidation. Natural attenuation-based remediation was demonstrated to be the least suitable, as it requires the longest time to reach predefined remediation goals, principally due to low sorption capacity and unfavorable hydrogeochemical conditions for biodegradation. Fate and transport numerical modeling allowed simulating different remediation strategies, and thus the decision-making process was facilitated.     

Occurrence Apparent Velocities for Identification and Quantification of Space–Time Clustering Precursory to a Large Earthquake. Application to Large (M > 7.0) Earthquakes in Southern California and Northern Baja California

Space–time seismic clusters, localized bursts of seismic activity, are a feature of background seismicity before the occurrence of large earthquakes, a feature that agrees with observations of diminishing Gutenberg–Richter b-value, fractal dimension, and entropy, and is therefore suggestive of high stress. However, identification and quantification of these space–time clusters, particularly when they are small, is not an easy task and requires a priori assumptions. A novel method for space–time cluster identification, based on an extension of the concept of apparent velocities, is proposed because space–time clusters in the background seismicity have a particular signature in the apparent velocity domain. The contents of histogram peaks due to clusters in the apparent velocity histogram can be used to quantify the cluster activity compared with null hypothesis levels. Identification of the earthquakes corresponding to the apparent velocities in the peaks allows identification of cluster activity in time and space. Apparent velocity peaks do appear in real catalog data for southern California and northern Baja California before the Landers 1992 M = 7.3, Hector Mine 1999 M = 7.1, El Mayor-Cucapah 2010 M = 7.2, and Ridgecrest 2019 M = 7.1 earthquakes, and they appear only within 15 to 25 years before the occurrence of large earthquakes. They are not observed either long before the large earthquakes or after them, and hence could be related to high local states of stress and be of value as a possible precursory observable.

     

Multi-sensor DInSAR applied to the spatiotemporal evolution analysis of ground surface deformation in Cerro Prieto basin,Baja California,Mexico, for the 1993–2014 period

The combined effects of active tectonics and anthropogenic activities, primarily geothermal resources exploitation for electricity production in Cerro Prieto geothermal field, influence the ground surface deformation in Cerro Prieto basin, Baja California, Mexico. In this study, a large set of multi-sensor C-band SAR images have been employed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of aseismic ground surface deformation that has affected Cerro Prieto basin from 1993 to 2014. Conventional DInSAR together with the interferograms stacking procedure was applied. The results showed that the study area presented considerable surface deformation (mainly subsidence) during the entire time of the investigation. The main changes in rate and pattern of surface deformation have a good correlation in time and space with the changes in production in the Cerro Prieto geothermal field. Comparison of LOS displacement maps from different viewing geometries, and decomposition (where possible) of LOS displacement into vertical and horizontal (east–west) components, revealed considerable horizontal displacement which mostly reflects the ground movement at and beyond the margin of the subsidence basin toward the areas of highest subsidence rates. In addition, the validation of the DInSAR results by comparing them against measurements from leveling surveys was performed, confirming the high reliably of satellite interferometry for the ground surface deformation rate mapping in the study area.     

Determination of volatile concentrations in fluorapatite of Martian shergottite NWA 2975 by combining synchrotron FTIR,Raman spectroscopy,EMPA, and TEM,and inferences on the volatile budget of the apatite host‐magma

We combined the focused ion beam sample preparation technique with polarized synchrotron‐based FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) spectroscopy, laser‐Raman spectroscopy, electron microprobe analysis (EMPA), and transmission electron microscope (TEM) analysis to identify and quantify structurally bound OH, F, Cl, and CO₃ groups in fluorapatite from the Northwest Africa 2975 (NWA 2975) shergottite. In this study, the first FTIR spectra of the OH‐stretching region from a Martian apatite are presented that show characteristic OH‐bands of a F‐rich, hydroxyl‐bearing apatite. Depending on the method of apatite‐formula calculation and whether charge balance is assumed or not, the FTIR‐based quantification of the incorporated OH, expressed as wt% H₂O, is in variably good agreement with the H₂O concentration calculated from electron microprobe data. EMP analyses yielded between 0.35 and 0.54 wt% H₂O, and IR data yielded an average H₂O content of 0.31 ± 0.03 wt%, consistent with the lower range determined from EMP analyses. The TEM observations implied that the volatiles budget of fluorapatite is magmatic. The water content and the relative volatile ratios calculated for the NWA 2975 magma are similar to those established for other enriched or intermediate shergottites. It is difficult to define the source of enrichment: either Martian wet mantle or crustal assimilation. Comparing the environment of parental magma generation for NWA 2975 with the terrestrial mantle in terms of water content, it displays a composition intermediate between enriched and depleted MORB.