Earthquake probability in engineering — Part 1: The use and misuse of expert opinion. The Third Richard H. Jahns Distinguished Lecture in Engineering Geology

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Electric Power Research Institute have developed procedures that statistically merge multiple expert opinions to get probabilistic seismic hazard evaluations. Such methods are intrinsically defective and should not be used for design applications in engineering.     

High pressure cognate inclusions in the Newer Volcanics of Victoria

High pressure pyroxene- and amphibole-rich inclusions are found in a number of Victorian Newer Volcanics volcanoes. The host lavas range from nepheline basanite to nepheline hawaiite and nepheline mugearite. The wide variation in chemistry and mineralogy of the inclusions is explained by crystallization from basaltic magmas under varying P-T and P_H2_O conditions at depth. At moderate pressure wehrlite inclusions (ol+cpx) form, whereas at higher pressures pyroxenites (opx+cpx) and genetically related megacrysts form. Under relatively anhydrous conditions the clinopyroxene megacrysts show a trend of Ca enrichment whereas under hydrous conditions, when amphibole is also stable, the pyroxene shows a trend to greater iron enrichment. The trend nepheline basanite to nepheline mugearite has developed by extensive fractionation of amphibole at elevated pressures under hydrous conditions. Under less hydrous conditions where clinopyroxene assumes the dominant role during crystal fractionation, derivative liquids display a trend of increasing K₂O/Na₂O ratio, with little modification of their level of undersaturation. Olivine plays a decreasing role in crystal fractionation processes with increasing pressure. The available evidence indicates that the only magma which could have been parental to the observed basanites was a more picritic basanite.     

Seismic activity in the McNaughton Lake area, Canada

Filling of McNaughton Lake, with a capacity at full load of25 · 10⁹m³ and maximum depth 191 m, was initiated on March 29, 1973. An earthquake swarm of 747 events (M_L > 0) with largest eventM_L = 4.7 occurred within 17 km of the reservoir just prior to loading. Subsequent to this, three swarms of 194, 292 and 22 events with maximumM_L = 4.1 occurred in the same region; however, no earthquakes have occurred between the reservoir and the swarm area. The level of regional seismic activity is similar to that observed prior to loading. The distribution of this activity, excluding swarm events, exhibits a spatial pattern similar to that recorded earlier by regional seismic stations, except that several events appear to be associated with the fault underlying the Rocky Mountain Trench in which the lake is formed. During a loading-unloading cycle in which the maximum water depth varied from 98 m to 171 m to 131 m, the change ofv_p was less than 2%. This indicates that no significant change in dilatancy or degree of water saturation occurred in the upper crustal layer during this cycle.     

The I.A.G.C. interlaboratory water analysis comparison programme

The I.A.G.C. international programme of interlaboratory comparison of water analysis quality involved seven waters, including surface waters, a ground water, an alkaline spring water, a sample ‘spiked’ with heavy metals, and a geothermal water. Forty-eight laboratories in eighteen countries participated.Sample stability was little problem for most major solutes and for minor elements at concentrations greater than tens of ppb. Iron analyses were erratic for some samples, and the stability of nitrogen species was suspect in unsterilized samples. For major constituents in surface waters the results were of reasonable quality but for waters of unusual composition e.g. the geothermal and alkaline spring water, the results were far from satisfactory. Of the common constituents, SO₄, NO₃, F, and SiO₂ showed the greatest range of results. The most consistent results for trace elements at the 10 ppb level were for Be, Cd, Cu, Hg, and Li. Lower quality results (coefficient of variation over 30) were obtained for Fe, As, Mn, Co, Ni, Pb and Zn.     

Chemical geothermometry in geothermal systems

The application of chemical and isotopic geothermometry to geothermal systems is reviewed, pointing out the uses and limitations of specific reactions in estimating deep temperatures from well, hot-spring and fumarole discharges.At present the most reliable indicators are: the silica-water equilibria; the Na/K ratio; the isotopic distributions Δ²H(H₂“H₂O), Δ²H(H₂“CH₄), Δ¹⁸O(H₂O“HSO^?₄); and the gas reactions CO₂ + 4H₂ ? CH₄ + 2H₂O, and 2NH₃ ? N₂ + 3H₂. Many other qualitative chemical indicators exist.     

The concept of "sustainable ecological succession"; and its value in assessing the recovery of sediment seabed biodiversity from environmental impact

The problem of determining whether the biodiversity of an impacted muddy seabed is recovering can be resolved by drawing on a concept termed "sustainable ecological succession". At a site impacted by discharge of mine tailings, a suite of approximately 6 primary opportunist species (mostly polychaete worms) had started to sustain itself within 1-2 years after discharge ceased (1995), within the mix of 100+ other species which were not sustaining themselves. The start of a sustaining ecological succession is easily measurable by repeat surveys, and requires only the services of one taxonomic identifier to demonstrate the consistent presence and numbers of a limited range of species. At the assessed site, by 2000, some secondary opportunist species had entered the succession, and the species richness of the impacted area had come to equal that of the reference areas.     

龙门山均衡重力异常及其对青藏高原东缘山脉地壳隆升的约束

青藏高原东缘处于不均衡状态，自西而东可分为青藏高原弱负均衡重力异常区、龙门山正均衡重力异常区和四川盆地负均衡重力异常区，表明该区的不均衡状态并未导致Airy均衡运动的产生，即龙门山没有均衡下降，而处于不断的隆升状态，显示该地区反均衡运动的构造抬升是导致龙门山隆升的主因。本次采用似三度体重力异常计算方法对该区的正均衡重力异常进行模拟和反演，研究了大尺度地貌分异与均衡重力异常分区之间的相互关系，结果表明，龙门山的下地壳顶面抬升了11．2～12．6km，造成了龙门山的正均衡异常，揭示了构造抬升和剥蚀作用在相似的时间尺度上和空间尺度上控制着龙门山地貌的形成，龙门山的表面隆升是构造隆升和剥蚀作用相叠加的产物。     

Climatological Drought in Arizona: An Analysis of Indicators for Guiding the Governor's Drought Task Force

Lacking a federal policy to address local water deficiencies within the United States, many states have developed their own methods for monitoring drought in an effort to mitigate its effects. This article provides an overview of efforts to standardize the use of drought indices in order to compare recent and historical drought both spatially and temporally for Arizona. Yearly averages of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index are placed into a frequency distribution to create standardization among the indices. The 1896–1904 drought ranked as the most severe, although the 1996–2004 drought was a close second.     

青藏高原东缘龙门山 晚新生代走滑-逆冲作用的地貌标志*

文章以青藏高原东缘龙门山活动构造的地貌标志为切入点,在汶川-茂汶断裂、北川断裂、彭灌断裂和大邑断裂等主干活动断裂的关键部位,对断错山脊、洪积扇、河流阶地、边坡脊、断层陡坎、河道错断、冲沟侧缘壁位错、拉分盆地、断层偏转、砾石定向带、坡中槽、弃沟和断塞塘等活动构造地貌和断裂带开展了详细的野外地质填图和地貌测量,利用精确的地貌测量数据和测年数据,定量计算了龙门山主干断裂的逆冲速率和走滑速率,结果表明在晚新生代时期龙门山构造带仅具有微弱的构造缩短作用,其中逆冲速率的速度值小于1.1mm/a,走滑速率的速度值小于1.46mm/a,表明走滑分量与逆冲分量的比率介于6 ∶ 1~1.3 ∶ 1之间,以右行走滑作用为主。在此基础上,对各主干活动断裂的逆冲速率和走滑速率进行了定量的对比研究,结果表明自北西向南东4条主干断裂的最大逆冲分量滑动速率具有变小的趋势,而走滑分量的滑动速率则具有逐渐变大的趋势,显示了从龙门山的后山带至前山带主干断裂的走滑作用越来越强。由此推测现今的龙门山及其前缘盆地不完全是由于构造缩短作用形成的,而主要是走滑作用和剥蚀卸载作用的产物。另外,根据沉积、构造、盆地充填体的几何形态、地貌、古地磁等标定和对比了龙门山在中生代和新生代的走滑方向,表明龙门山构造带在中生代与新生代之交走滑方向发生了反转,即由中生代时期的左行变为新生代时期的右行。