Seasonal evaluation of rainfall estimation by four cumulus parameterization schemes and their sensitivity analysis

Sustainable water resources management require scientifically sound information on precipitation, as it plays a key role in hydrological responses in a catchment. In recent years, mesoscale weather models in conjunction with hydrological models have gained great attention as they can provide high‐resolution downscaled weather variables. Many cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) have been developed and incorporated into three‐dimensional Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model 5 (MM5). This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four CPSs (the Anthes–Kuo, Grell, Betts–Miller and Kain–Fritsch93 schemes) to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's precipitation estimation capabilities. The study has also compared these four CPSs in terms of variability in rainfall estimation at various horizontal and vertical levels. For this purpose, the MM5 was nested down to resolution of 81 km for Domain 1 (domain span 21 × 81 km) and 3 km for Domain 4 (domain span 16 × 3 km), respectively, with vertical resolutions at 23, 40 and 53 vertical levels. The study was carried out at the Brue catchment in Southwest England using both the ERA‐40 reanalysis data and the land‐based observation data. The performances of four CPs were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the amount of cumulative rainfall in 4 months in 1995 representing the four seasonal months, namely, January (winter), March (spring), July (summer) and October (autumn). It is observed that the Anthes–Kuo scheme has produced inferior precipitation values during spring and autumn seasons while simulations during winter and summer were consistently good. The Betts–Miller scheme has produced some reasonable results, particularly at the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) during winter and summer. The KF2 scheme was the best scheme for the larger‐scale (81 km grid size) domain during winter season at both 23 and 53 vertical levels. This scheme tended to underestimate rainfall for other seasons including the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) in the mesoscale. The Grell scheme was the best scheme in simulating rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to other three schemes with consistently better results in all four seasons and in different domain scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disaster risk reduction legislations: Is there a move from events to processes?

Disaster research and scholarship is now advocating a shift from focusing on the hazard event to processes that generate vulnerability and loss of resilience to disasters. Disaster legislations are among prominent instruments that can highlight the tensions as well as challenges that are being encountered towards this change in focus. Using textual analysis, this paper presents a study that investigated whether five post-2002 disaster legislations have shifted emphasis from the hazard to the vulnerability and resilience paradigms. The five examples illustrate that while there is a slight change, at least in rhetoric, from response to a prevention focus, disaster legislations largely promote a centralised institutional framework, with inadequate resource commitments and limited participation from vulnerable communities. Consequently, while generalisations simply cannot be made without a wider analysis of many more examples from different countries, the five disaster legislations appear to re-emphasise the response focus with less attention on the processes that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. The conclusion is that while the rhetoric has changed, the disaster legislations have not significantly moved from the hazard to vulnerability and resilience focus suggesting that reduction of losses and damages to disasters remains a big challenge     

Non-minimal coupling of the phantom field and cosmic acceleration

Motivated by the recent interest in phantom fields as candidates for the dark energy component, we investigate the consequences of the phantom field when is minimally coupled to gravity. In particular, the necessary (but insufficient) conditions for the acceleration and superacceleration of the universe are obtained when the non-minimal coupling term is taken into account. Furthermore, the necessary condition for the cosmic acceleration is derived when the phantom field is non-minimally coupled to gravity and baryonic matter is included.     

Multiple generation magmatic and hydrothermal processes in a Martian subvolcanic environment based on the analysis of Yamato-000593 nakhlite meteorite

We studied the occurrence of secondary minerals and inferred their formation in the Yamato-000593 Martian meteorite using multiple technological approaches such as electron probe micro analysis, optical microscope, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, as well as Fourier transform-infrared microscopy and spectroscopy. Two separate hydrothermal alteration events and their sequence of formation (based on superpositional relationship) can be identified: an elevated temperature phase producing high-temperature sulfidic hydrothermal alteration and a lower temperature hydrothermal alteration phase by iron-rich fluids. This meteorite shows signatures more compatible with magmatic effects, rather than impact-induced hydrothermal alteration, as has been proposed earlier. The sulfidic alteration probably formed by magmatic hydrothermal fluids, whereas iron-rich hydrothermal fluid circulation after a possible early impact event has also been proposed, when the fluids cooled down to 50 °C. Most of the secondary minerals formed at alkaline-neutral conditions, and the few observed signatures (clay–silica-bearing veins, siderite-iron-oxide veins) of briny conditions are probably from local spatial effects in larger cavities. The ferrous minerals (hematite and siderite) along the fractures could be crystallized from Fe-HCO₃-bearing fluids. Alternatively, the primary magmatic minerals could have been oxidized easily (Fe-rich olivines, magnetite) during the cooling to iron oxides (hematite, goethite). The results suggest the possible existence of at least ephemerally habitable environments on Mars, mainly at volcanically heated locations. Following published geochemical models, the carbonates formed within acidic-circumneutral condition, which was followed by formation of phyllosilicates in alkaline condition.     

Downscaling and projection of precipitation from general circulation model predictors in an equatorial climate region by the automated regression-based statistical method

The authors have applied an automated regression-based statistical method, namely, the automated statistical downscaling (ASD) model, to downscale and project the precipitation climatology in an equatorial climate region (Peninsular Malaysia). Five precipitation indices are, principally, downscaled and projected: mean monthly values of precipitation (Mean), standard deviation (STD), 90th percentile of rain day amount, percentage of wet days (Wet-day), and maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD). The predictors, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) products, are taken from the daily series reanalysis data, while the global climate model (GCM) outputs are from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) in A2/B2 emission scenarios and Third-Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) in A2 emission scenario. Meanwhile, the predictand data are taken from the arithmetically averaged rain gauge information and used as a baseline data for the evaluation. The results reveal, from the calibration and validation periods spanning a period of 40 years (1961–2000), the ASD model is capable to downscale the precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Overall, during the validation period, the model simulations with the NCEP predictors produce mean monthly precipitation of 6.18–6.20 mm/day (root mean squared error 0.78 and 0.82 mm/day), interpolated, respectively, on HadCM3 and CGCM3 grids, in contrast to 6.00 mm/day as observation. Nevertheless, the model suffers to perform reasonably well at the time of extreme precipitation and summer time, more specifically to generate the CDD and STD indices. The future projections of precipitation (2011–2099) exhibit that there would be an increase in the precipitation amount and frequency in most of the months. Taking the 1961–2000 timeline as the base period, overall, the annual mean precipitation would indicate a surplus projection by nearly 14~18 % under both GCM output cases (HadCM3 A2/B2 scenarios and CGCM3 A2 scenario). According to the model simulation, the September–November periods might be the more significant months projecting the increment of the precipitation amount around over 50 %, while the precipitation deficit would be seen in March–May periods.     

The use of press data in the development of a database for rainfall-induced landslides in Tegucigalpa,Honduras, 1980–2005

The capital city of Honduras, Tegucigalpa, suffers from the occurrence of destructive landslides on a yearly basis. During the rainy season, damages to infrastructure as well as injuries, casualties and homeless individuals resulting from landslides are reported in the press. This paper presents the development of a database for rainfall-induced landslides for the period 1980–2005, based on the news reported by two local newspapers. The editions comprehended during the study period have been scrutinized, and articles focusing on landslides, tropical storms, hurricanes, floods and vulnerability of the city have been collected. The interpretation of these archives has allowed the compilation of valuable data of approximately 400 landslides. The analyses of monthly and annual precipitation during the study period show how extreme rainfall events like Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998 have significantly contributed to the initiation of landslides. In addition, the assessment of the slums and neighborhoods affected by landslides during the study period reveals an evident link between the social and physical vulnerability of Tegucigalpa. In order to estimate the reliability of this press-based database, the set of landslides that have been reported as a result of Hurricane Mitch in the press archives has been compared with two inventories based on the interpretation of aerial photographs taken in 1999 and 2001. It is shown that the analysis of the landslide damage left after the hurricane can be enriched with the detailed temporal data provided in the archives and the precise location of these events determined by the aerial photographs. Despite the difficulties faced in the compilation of this database, a good comprehension of the temporal and spatial distribution of landslides in Tegucigalpa has been achieved.     

The structure of Neptune's upper atmosphere: The stellar occultation of 24 May 1981

Observations of the 24 May 1981 occultation of an uncatalogued star by Neptune made at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory have been analyzed to yield temperature profiles of Neptune's upper atmosphere for number densities near 5 × 10¹³ cm^?3. The mean temperatures at immersion (latitude ?56°) and emersion (latitude ?16°) obtained by numerical inversion were 140 ± 10°K and 154 ± 10°K, respectively. The immersion and emersion profiles are remarkably similar in overall shape, suggestive of global atmospheric layering. From the astrometry of the event, precise relative positions of Neptune and the occulted were obtained.     

Star-formation modes in the solar neighborhood

We perform a study into the spatial and kinematical distribution of young open clusters in the solar neighborhood, distinguishing between Gould Belt and local Galactic disk members. We use a previous estimate of the structural parameters of both systems obtained from a sample of O to B6 stars from Hipparcos. The two star-forming regions that dominate and give the Gould Belt its characteristic inclined shape show a striking difference in their content of star clusters: while Ori OB1 is richly populated by open clusters, not a single one can be found within the boundaries of Sco OB2. This is mirrored in velocity space, translating again into an abundance of clusters in the region of the kinematic space populated by the members of Ori OB1, and a marginal number of them associated with Sco OB2. We interpret all these differences by characterizing the Orion region as a cluster complex typically surrounded by a stellar halo, and the Sco-Cen region as an OB association in the outskirts of the complex. The different contents of star clusters, the different heights above the Galactic plane and the different residual velocities of Ori OB1 and Sco OB2 can be explained in terms of their relative position with respect to the density maximum of the Local Arm in the solar neighborhood. The origin of this feature could have been the interaction of a density wave with the local interstellar medium close to the Galactic co-rotation radius.     

Hierarchical star formation: stars and stellar clusters in the Gould Belt

We perform a study of the spatial and kinematical distribution of young open clusters in the solar neighbourhood, discerning between bound clusters and transient stellar condensations within our sample. Then, we discriminate between Gould Belt (GB) and local Galactic disc (LGD) members, using our previous estimate of the structural parameters of both systems obtained from a sample of O-B6 Hipparcos stars. Single membership probabilities of the clusters are also calculated in the separation process. Using this classified sample, we analyse the spatial structure and the kinematic behaviour of the cluster system in the GB. The two star formation regions that dominate and give the GB its characteristic-inclined shape show a striking difference in their content of star clusters: while Ori OB1 is richly populated by open clusters, not a single one can be found within the boundaries of Sco OB2. This is mirrored in the velocity space, translating again into an abundance of clusters in the region of the kinematic space populated by the members of Ori OB1, and a marginal number of them associated with Sco OB2. We interpret all these differences by characterizing the Orion region as a cluster complex typically surrounded by a stellar halo, and the Sco-Cen region as an OB association in the outskirts of the complex. In the light of these results, we study the nature of the GB with respect to the optical segment of the Orion Arm, and we propose that the different content of star clusters, the different heights over the Galactic plane and the different residual velocities of Ori OB1 and Sco OB2 can be explained in terms of their relative position to the density maximum of the Local Arm in the solar neighbourhood. Although morphologically intriguing, the GB appears to be the result of our local and biased view of a larger star cluster complex in the Local Arm, that could be explained by the internal dynamics of the Galactic disc.