Comparison of ten notable meteorological drought indices on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow

ABSTRACT

Ten notable meteorological drought indices were compared on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow. A 730-month dataset of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for 88 catchments in Oregon, USA, representing pristine conditions, was used to compute the drought indices. These indices were correlated with the monthly streamflow datasets of the minimum, maximum and mean discharge, and the discharge monthly fluctuation; it was revealed that the 3-month Z-score drought index (Z3) has the best association with the four streamflow variables. The Mann-Kendall trend detection test applied to the latter index time series mainly highlighted a downward trend in the autumn and winter drought magnitude (DM) and an upward trend in the spring and summer DM (p = 0.05). Finally, the Pettitt test indicated an abrupt decline in the annual and autumn DM, which began in 1984 and 1986, respectively.     

Present climate trend analysis of the Etesian winds in the Aegean Sea

Wildfires are a common experience in Alaska where, on average, 3,775?km² burn annually. More than 90% of the area consumed occurs in Interior Alaska, where the summers are relatively warm and dry, and the vegetation consists predominantly of spruce, birch, and cottonwood. Summers with above normal temperatures generate an increased amount of convection, resulting in more thunderstorm development and an amplified number of lightning strikes. The resulting dry conditions facilitate the spread of wildfires started by the lightning. Working with a 55-year dataset of wildfires for Alaska, an increase in the annual area burned was observed. Due to climate change, the last three decades have shown to be warmer than the previous decades. Hence, in the first 28?years of the data, two fires were observed with an area burned greater than 10,000?km², while there were four in the last 27?years. Correlations between the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Canadian Drought Code, against both the number of wildfires and the area burned, gave relatively low but in some cases significant correlation values. Special emphasis is given to the fire season of 2004, in which a record of 27,200?km² burned. These widespread fires were due in large part to the unusual weather situation. Owing to the anticyclonic conditions of the summer of 2004, the composite anomaly of the 500?mb geopotential height showed above normal values. The dominance of a ridge pattern during summer resulted in generally clear skies, high temperatures, and below normal precipitation. Surface observations confirmed this; the summer of 2004 was the warmest and third driest for Interior Alaska in a century of climate observations. The fires lasted throughout the summer and only the snowfalls in September terminated them (at least one regenerated in spring 2005). Smoke from the forest fires affected the air quality. This could be demonstrated by measurements of visibility, fine particle matter, transmissivity of the atmosphere, and CO concentration.     

Kinematic analysis and analogue modelling of the Passeier- and Jaufen faults: implications for crustal indentation in the Eastern Alps

Crustal deformation in front of an indenter is often affected by the indenter’s geometry, rheology, and motion path. In this context, the kinematics of the Jaufen- and Passeier faults have been studied by carrying out paleostress analysis in combination with crustal-scale analogue modelling to infer (1) their relationship during indentation of the Adriatic plate and (2) their sensitivity in terms of fault kinematics to the geometry and motion path of Adria. The field study reveals mylonites along the Jaufen fault, which formed under lower greenschist facies conditions and is associated with top-to-the-west/northwest shear with a northern block down component. In addition, a brittle reactivation of the Jaufen shear zone under NNW–SSE to NW–SE compressional and ENE–WSW tensional stress conditions was deduced from paleostress analysis. The inferred shortening direction is consistent with fission track ages portraying Neogene exhumation of the Meran-Mauls basement south of the fault. Along the Passeier fault, deformation was only brittle to semi-ductile and paleostress tensors record that the fault was subjected to E–W extension along its northern segment varying into NW–SE compression and sinistral transpression along its southern segment. In the performed analogue experiments, a rigid, triangular shaped indenter was pushed into a sand pile resulting in the formation of a Passeier-like fault sprouting from the indenter’s tip. These kinds of north-trending tip faults formed in all experiments with shortening directions towards the NW, N, or NE. Consequently, we argue that the formation of the Passeier fault strongly corresponds to the outline of the Adriatic indenter and was only little affected by the indenter’s motion path due to induced strain partitioning in front of the different indenter segments. The associated fault kinematics along the Passeier fault including both E–W extension and NNW to NW shortening, however, is most consistent with a northward advancing Adriatic indenter.     

Application of the revised universal soil loss equation model on landslide prevention. An example from N. Euboea (Evia) Island, Greece

This study aims to evaluate the application of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) on predicting of sites susceptible to slope failures caused by the soil erosion. It was carried out at the northern part of Euboea Island presenting one of the highest frequencies of landslide occurrence in Greece. All required datasets for the application of the RUSLE model were engaged to compile a potential soil erosion map of the study area. In addition, historical slope failure data were used to evaluate the produced map. Moreover, the frequency ratio statistical analysis was applied for the verification of the soil erosion map. The results showed a satisfactory agreement between the soil erosion intensity zones and distribution of landslides events. Therefore, the RUSLE model can be applied for the localization of sites susceptible to landslides that were prepared or triggered by the soil erosion. Finally, taking under consideration the contribution of erosion mechanisms over the landslides manifestation, a combination of measures were proposed for preventing and supporting these catastrophic phenomena.     

Sustainable Soil Particle Size Characterization Through Image Analysis

A rapid, clean, low-energy, image-based method for determining the grain size distribution of soils by image analysis has been developed. The method is called Sediment Imaging or “Sedimaging”. It develops the grain size distribution for particles in the range between a U.S. Standard Sieve No. 10 (2.0 mm openings) and U.S. Standard Sieve No. 200 (0.075 mm openings) range. The system utilizes a high resolution Nikon D7000 digital single lens reflex camera and image processing software developed specifically for interpreting the images and producing the resulting grain size distribution. The Sedimaging system is more sustainable and environmentally friendly than traditional sieving by virtue of its far lower power needs, less water consumption, longer equipment life and less maintenance. From the environmental and health perspectives, Sedimaging is less noisy, generates no vibrations and produces no airborne particulates. Sedimaging is also significantly faster than sieving and produces thousands of data points compared to typically 8 by sieving; it also automatically computes grain size distribution metrics such as the coefficients of uniformity and gradation.     

Relation between mean stress,thermodynamic, and lithostatic pressure

Pressure is one of the most important parameters to be quantified in geological problems. However, in metamorphic systems the pressure is usually calculated with two different approaches. One pressure calculation is based on petrological phase equilibria and this pressure is often termed thermodynamic pressure. The other calculation is based on continuum mechanics, which provides a mean stress that is commonly used to estimate the thermodynamic pressure. Both thermodynamic pressure calculations can be justified by the accuracy and applicability of the results. Here, we consider systems with low‐differential stress (<1 kbar) and no irreversible volumetric deformation, and refer to them as conventional systems. We investigate the relationship between mean stress and thermodynamic pressure. We discuss the meaning of thermodynamic pressure and its calculation for irreversible processes such as viscous deformation and heat conduction, which exhibit entropy production. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the mean stress for incompressible viscous deformation is essentially equal to the mean stress for the corresponding viscous deformation with elastic compressibility, if the characteristic time of deformation is five times longer than the Maxwell viscoelastic relaxation time that is equal to the ratio of shear viscosity to bulk modulus. For typical lithospheric rocks, this Maxwell time is smaller than c. 10,000 years. Therefore, numerical simulations of long‐term (>10 kyr) geodynamic processes, employing incompressible deformation, provide mean stress values that are close to the mean‐stress value associated with elastic compressibility. Finally, we show that for conventional systems the mean stress is essentially equal to the thermodynamic pressure. However, mean stress and, hence, thermodynamic pressure can be significantly different from the lithostatic pressure.     

Geometry of growth strata in a transpressive fold belt in field and analogue model: Gosau Group at Muttekopf,Northern Calcareous Alps,Austria

The thrust sheets of the Northern Calcareous Alps were emplaced during Late Cretaceous thrust‐dominated transpression expressed by thrust sheets segmented by closely spaced tear faults. Thrust sheet‐top sediments were deposited during thrusting and associated fold growth and were controlled by active folding and tearing. We observe two types of angular unconformities: (1) Angular unconformities above folds between tear faults conform with the model of progressive unconformities. Across these unconformities dip decreases upsection. (2) Here, we define progressive unconformities that are related to tear faults and are controlled by both folding and tearing. Across these unconformities both strike and dip change. In growth strata overlying folds dissected by high‐angle faults, such unconformities are expected to be common. We used analogue modelling to define the geometry of the tear faults and related unconformities. Within the syn‐tectonic sediments, a steep, upward flattening thrust within a broader, roughly tulip‐shaped drag zone develops. The thrust roots in the tear fault in pre‐tectonic deposits and is curved upward toward the downthrown block. Vertical offset on the thrust is related to differential vertical uplift caused by, for example, growth of folds with different wavelength and amplitude on either side of the tear fault. Formation of progressive unconformities is governed by the relationship between the rates of deposition and vertical growth of a structure. Fault‐related progressive unconformities are additionally controlled by the growth of the vertical step across the tear fault. When the rates of vertical growth of two neighbouring folds separated by a tear fault are similar, the rate of growth across the tear fault is small; if the first differ, the latter is high. Episodic tear fault activity may create several angular unconformities attached to a tear fault or allow the generation of angular unconformities near tear faults in sedimentary systems that have a rate of deposition too high to generate classical progressive unconformities between the tear faults.     

Proportional stress and strain paths in barodesy

Asymptotic behaviour of soil deserves particular attention: If soil is deformed with a proportional strain path, the resulting stress path approaches asymptotically a proportional stress path. In this arcticle, we review existing experimental evidence on this phenomenon and discuss it in the frame of barodesy. Here, the presented relation is a modification of a barodetic expression and includes Jáky's relation, inhibits tensile stress and is able to predict asymptotic stress ratios based on experimental findings. The proposed relation is compared with experimental data as well as with the so‐called stress‐dilatancy relations and other constitutive relations proposed so far. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Height-integrated flow in the convective Planetary Boundary Layer

Field data are analyzed in order to study the layer-averaged winds in the unstable, entraining, baroclinic, advective and non-stationary Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). The relationship between the actual and geostrophic winds is described using three different equation sets. The results of these analytical expressions are compared with measurements from the Öresund experiment which was carried out during the period May 15 to June 14, 1984.     

Complex Site Effects in Thessaloniki (Greece): II. 2D SH Modelling and Engineering Insights

This paper presents results of numerical modelling of site response for Thessaloniki, obtained with two different 2D methods; a finite difference and a finite element method. Ground motion across a 2D model of the subsoil of the city has been simulated for vertically incident SH waves. The predominance of locally generated surface waves is very clear in the synthetic seismograms of a weak event and of stronger ones. These results are then compared with the observations in time domain and frequency domain. The role of the soil formations with high attenuation in the lateral propagation and the effect of the differential motion close to the lateral variations are also pinpointed. The stronger events were finally used to compute strong ground motion in order to reveal and to discuss practical engineering aspects such as peak ground acceleration value, the most familiar indicator in seismic norms, the soil to rock spectral coefficients for the period bandwidth of interest, and the aggravation factor in terms of 2D to 1D response spectra as a useful ruler to account for complex site effects.