基于多元线性回归分析的页岩气有利区评价新方法——以上扬子地区五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩为例

本文以四川盆地及其周缘五峰组-龙马溪组页岩气评价为例,总结了页岩气有利区优选的储层参数、保存参数和压力系数等参数,量化了各关键参数平面分布,运用多元线性回归分析方法计算了参数权重,通过多参数加权叠加公式建立了多元线性回归模型：有利区=-0.317+0.75×埋深+0.285×TOC+0.148×R_O+0.093×孔隙度-0.128×渗透率+0.201×脆性矿物-0.199×压力系数,并开展了定量化优选评价页岩气有利区工作。分析结果表明,各参数权重由大到小排序为：埋深、TOC、脆性矿物和压力系数、R_O、孔隙度、渗透率,代表对含气性的影响作用依次减小。经过量化优选的有利区主要集中于四川盆地内,包括威远-自贡一线、宜宾-泸州-涪陵一线和川东区域为主,盆外的昭通、金沙、道真和黔江区域为相对有利区。该预测评价结果与四川盆地页岩气勘探实际基本相符,有利区表现形式较传统综合地质方法更清晰、直观。     

Sliding element simulating the response of slip surfaces and its application for the prediction of earthquake-induced landslide movement using one-dimensional dynamic analyses

Landslides - Earthquake-induced landslides involve excessive movement of slopes, usually along slip surfaces. This seismic movement of slopes may depend crucially on (a) the soil response along the...     

川西北下二叠统栖霞组微生物丘的发现及地质意义*

通过野外露头与钻井剖面的室内外分析,确认在四川盆地西北部(川西北)下二叠统栖霞组中发育有微生物丘,它们主要由凝块灰(云)岩、叠层灰(云)岩和微生物粘结颗粒灰(云)岩等组成。这些微生物碳酸盐岩发育较为典型的凝块、叠层、窗格、粘结等组构。微生物丘大小不一,实测高度一般为几十厘米至几米,宽度通常变化于几米至几十米之间,具有底平顶凸的典型丘形外貌,以发育向上变浅的沉积序列为特征,一般由丘基、丘核、丘盖3个微相组成,也可与颗粒滩共同构成微生物丘滩复合体。基于区域古地理背景和微生物丘特征的剖析,认为川西北地区栖霞期沉积环境总体受限,推测为半局限—局限台地环境,水深较浅,能量普遍不高;海平面频繁的相对升降变化和微生物丘的侧向迁移叠置,导致发育于缓坡背景下的碳酸盐岩台地极易受限,引起早期沉积物发生与丘滩发育密切相关的准同生期白云石化作用。因此,微生物丘滩复合体是栖霞组白云岩储集层发育的物质基础,台缘坡折带、台内缓坡折带和高地是栖霞组白云岩储集层发育的有利区带,这对寻找规模性层位不稳定的带状白云岩储集层具有重要的指导作用,并将大大拓展栖霞组白云岩储集层的勘探领域。     

利用地面LiDAR精细化测量活断层微地貌形态——以毛垭坝断裂禾尼处断层崖为例

受地壳内部持续运动和沉积、风化等自然动力及人类生产与生活活动影响,活断层微地貌形态往往比较复杂,传统测量方法较难快速、高效地获取大范围内精细化的活断层微地貌形态,激光雷达扫描技术的出现和发展为活断层微地貌的精细化与定量化研究提供了新的技术手段。以川西理塘毛垭坝盆地北缘的正断层崖为研究对象,利用地面LiDAR获取活断层微地貌高精度点云后,经过点云配准、滤波、重采样和三角构网处理后,建立了0.05 m分辨率的数字高程模型和真彩色三维模型,在此基础上分析了断层崖地貌特征,并获取了正断层错动两期最新地貌面的精确垂直位错量。研究结果表明,地面LiDAR技术是精细测量活断层微地貌形态和量化相关地貌特征参数的有效手段,提高了活断层微地貌形态测量的精度和认识水平。     

Lower Cretaceous turbidites in the Shiquanhe–Namco Ophiolite Mélange Zone,Asa area,Tibet:Constraints on the evolution of the Meso-Tethys Ocean

Turbidites from the Shiquanhe–Namco Ophiolite Mélange Zone(SNMZ) record critical information about the tectonic affinity of the SNMZ and the evolutionary history of the Meso-Tethys Ocean in Tibet.This paper reports sedimentologic,sandstone petrographic,zircon U-Pb geochronologic,and clastic rocks geochemical data of newly identified turbidites(Asa Formation) in the Asa Ophiolite Mélange.The youngest ages of detrital zircon from the turbiditic sandstone samples,together with ～115 Ma U-Pb concordant age from the tuff intercalation within the Asa Formation indicate an Early Cretaceous age.The sandstone mineral modal composition data show that the main component is quartz grains and the minor components are sedimentary and volcanic fragments,suggesting that the turbidites were mainly derived from a recycled orogen provenance with a minor addition of volcanic arc materials.The detrital U-Pb zircon ages of turbiditic sandstones yield main age populations of170–120 Ma,300–220 Ma,600–500 Ma,1000–700 Ma,1900–1500 Ma,and ～2500 Ma,similar to the ages of the Qiangtang Terrane(age peak of 600–500 Ma,1000–900 Ma,～1850 Ma and ～2500 Ma) and the accretionary complex in the Bangong–Nujiang Ophiolite Zone(BNMZ) rather than the age of the Central Lhasa Terrane(age peak of ～300 Ma,～550 Ma and ～1150 Ma).The mineral modal compositions,detrital U-Pb zircon ages,and geochemical data of clastic rocks suggest that the Asa Formation is composed of sediments primarily recycled from the Jurassic accretionary complex within the BNMZ with the secondary addition of intermediate-felsic island arc materials from the South Qiangtang Terrane.Based on our new results and previous studies,we infer that the SNMZ represents a part of the Meso-Tethys Suture Zone,rather than a southward tectonic klippe of the BNMZ or an isolated ophiolitic mélange zone within the Lhasa Terrane.The Meso-Tethys Suture Zone records the continuous evolutionary history of the northward subduction,accretion,arc-Lhasa collision,and Lhasa-Qiangtang collision of the Meso-Tethys Ocean from the Early Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous.     

夏季亚洲高空急流纬向非对称变异与北大西洋海温和欧亚陆面热力异常的可能联系

基于1979~2015年ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了夏季亚洲高空急流纬向非对称变异特征及其可能的外强迫因子。研究发现夏季亚洲200 hPa纬向风异常EOF第二模态（方差贡献为16.4%）主要表现出了急流纬向非对称的空间异常形态,反映了西亚和东亚区域急流南北偏移的反位相变化。通过进一步的诊断分析,我们发现急流纬向非对称变异与北大西洋海表温度（简称海温）和欧亚陆面热力异常可能存在一定的联系。北大西洋三极型海温异常会激发出向下游传播的异常波列,夏季该波列在欧亚大陆上空的异常环流中心与急流纬向非对称相关的异常环流中心对应一致,其中东欧平原的异常反气旋和巴尔喀什湖附近的异常气旋对西亚急流变化存在影响,东亚地区急流的变化与贝加尔湖北部异常气旋和贝加尔湖南部的异常反气旋有关。对比欧亚土壤湿度关键区内垂直环流,陆面热力异常可能会改变局地环流进而影响急流变异,且这种影响存在区域差异。     

What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

     

拜泉县霜冻灾害的区划研究

<正>1引言1.1气象灾害区划及防御工作的研究意义气象灾害是指由于气象因素直接或间接的影响造成的灾害,常见的气象灾害主要有干旱、霜冻、洪涝、冰雹、大风等。拜泉县位于黑龙江省西北部,地处小兴安岭余脉与嫩江平原的过渡地带,属寒温带气候。主要气象灾害为水灾、旱灾、霜冻、冰雹、雷电等。给工农业生产造成不同程度的危害,对社会经济造成严重的影响。因此对影响拜泉县的气象灾害进行区划和防御管理对策研究,对提高全县防灾减灾能力具有重要     

中国农业气象模式(CAMM1.0)构建与应用

为发展适宜中国区域农业种植特点的农业气象模式,基于国外作物生长模拟方法,通过模式机理过程改进或重构以及应用方式革新,建立了中国农业气象模式（Chinese AgroMeteorological Model version 1.0,CAMM1.0）。CAMM1.0利用平均温度和土壤水分改进了作物发育进程模式,利用土壤水分改进了作物叶片光合作用、干物质分配和叶面积扩展过程模式,通过蒸发比法扩展了作物蒸散过程模式;自主建立了基于发育进程的冬小麦株高、基于遥感信息的作物灌溉、遥感数据同化、作物长势与灾害评价等模式。基于互联网技术构造了实时运转平台,主要功能包括作物生长过程实时常规模拟与用户个性化定制模拟。CAMM1.0的部分子模式采用多种方法构造,便于多模式集成。CAMM1.0对作物发育进程、光合过程、株高的模拟效果较好,但对土壤水分变化过程的拟合略差,模拟产量略偏低。CAMM1.0评价淮河流域夏玉米年际干旱减弱而涝渍增加的趋势与实际基本相符。     

济阳坳陷上第三系的沉积特征及沉积相的纵向演化规律

本文根据岩性特征、沉积构造、砂体厚度和测井曲线特征等资料，对4口岩心井进行了沉积相分析，详细研究了不同时期的河流类型及沉积相的演化规律，从而认为济阳凹陷上第三系沉积大体经历了3个阶段：早期的冲积扇一辫状河阶段，中期的辫状河一低弯度曲流河阶段及晚期的高弯度曲流河阶段，同时分析了不同砂体的油气储集性能。