Earth,Wind, and Fire: Wildfire Risk Perceptions in a Hurricane-Prone Environment

Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers as having high wildfire risk and many participants have direct experience with wildfire, residents tended to share high hurricane and low wildfire risk perceptions. The different perceptions of risk seem linked to several factors: direct hurricane experience, different scales of impact, the local “hurricane culture,” effectiveness of local ordinances and development patterns, perceived predictability of the event, and perceived ability to control the event. This study shows that residents may perceive and act to reduce risk for one disturbance in relation to their perceptions, concern, and actions for another.     

Spatiotemporal variations in heat-related health risk in three Midwestern US cities between 1990 and 2010

Mortality from extreme heat is a leading cause of weather-related fatality, which is expected to increase in frequency with future climate scenarios. This study examines the spatiotemporal variations in heat-related health risk in three Midwestern cities in the USA between the years 1990 to 2010; cities include Chicago, Illinois, Indianapolis, IN and Dayton, OH. In order to examine these variations, we utilize the recently developed extreme heat vulnerability index (EHVI) that uses a principal components solution to vulnerability. The EHVI incorporates data from the US Decadal Census and remotely sensed variables to determine heat-related vulnerability at an intra-urban level (census block group). The results demonstrate significant spatiotemporal variations in heat health risk within the cities involved.     

Broad-scale spatial pattern of forest landscape types in the Guiana Shield

Detecting broad scale spatial patterns across the South American rainforest biome is still a major challenge. Although several countries do possess their own, more or less detailed land-cover map, these are based on classifications that appear largely discordant from a country to another. Up to now, continental scale remote sensing studies failed to fill this gap. They mostly result in crude representations of the rainforest biome as a single, uniform vegetation class, in contrast with open vegetations. A few studies identified broad scale spatial patterns, but only when they managed to map a particular forest characteristic such as biomass. The main objective of this study is to identify, characterize and map distinct forest landscape types within the evergreen lowland rainforest at the sub-continental scale of the Guiana Shield (north-east tropical South-America 10° North-2° South; 66° West-50° West). This study is based on the analysis of a 1-year daily data set (from January 1st to December 31st, 2000) from the VEGETATION sensor onboard the SPOT-4 satellite (1-km spatial resolution). We interpreted remotely sensed landscape classes (RSLC) from field and high resolution remote sensing data of 21 sites in French Guiana. We cross-analyzed remote sensing data, field observations and environmental data using multivariate analysis. We obtained 33 remotely sensed landscape classes (RSLC) among which five forest-RSLC representing 78% of the forested area. The latter were classified as different broad forest landscape types according to a gradient of canopy openness. Their mapping revealed a new and meaningful broad-scale spatial pattern of forest landscape types. At the scale of the Guiana Shield, we observed a spatial patterns similarity between climatic and forest landscape types. The two most open forest-RSLCs were observed mainly within the north-west to south-east dry belt. The three other forest-RSLCs were observed in wetter and less anthropized areas, particularly in the newly recognized “Guianan dense forest arch”. Better management and conservation policies, as well as improvement of biological and ecological knowledge, require accurate and stable representations of the geographical components of ecosystems. Our results represent a decisive step in this way for the Guiana Shield area and contribute to fill one of the major shortfall in the knowledge of tropical forests.     

Implications of sampling design and sample size for national carbon accounting systems

Background  

Countries willing to adopt a REDD regime need to establish a national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that provides information on forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. Due to the extensive areas covered by forests the information is generally obtained by sample based surveys. Most operational sampling approaches utilize a combination of earth-observation data and in-situ field assessments as data sources.     

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750?C2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005?C2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ??best-estimate?? global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO₂ emissions), leading to CO₂ concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21^st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.     

Efficacy of Hollow‐Fiber Ultrafiltration for Microbial Sampling in Groundwater

The goal of this study was to test hollow‐fiber ultrafiltration as a method for concentrating in situ bacteria and viruses in groundwater samples. Water samples from nine wells tapping a shallow sandy aquifer in a densely populated village in Bangladesh were reduced in volume approximately 400‐fold using ultrafiltration. Culture‐based assays for total coliforms and Escherichia coli, as well as molecular‐based assays for E. coli, Bacteroides, and adenovirus, were used as microbial markers before and after ultrafiltration to evaluate performance. Ultrafiltration increased the concentration of the microbial markers in 99% of cases. However, concentration factors (CF = post‐filtration concentration/pre‐filtration concentration) for each marker calculated from geometric means ranged from 52 to 1018 compared to the expected value of 400. The efficiency was difficult to quantify because concentrations of some of the markers, especially E. coli and total coliforms, in the well water (WW) collected before ultrafiltration varied by several orders of magnitude during the period of sampling. The potential influence of colloidal iron oxide precipitates in the groundwater was tested by adding EDTA to the pre‐filtration water in half of the samples to prevent the formation of precipitates. The use of EDTA had no significant effect on the measurement of culturable or molecular markers across the 0.5 to 10 mg/L range of dissolved Fe²⁺ concentrations observed in the groundwater, indicating that colloidal iron did not hinder or enhance recovery or detection of the microbial markers. Ultrafiltration appears to be effective for concentrating microorganisms in environmental water samples, but additional research is needed to quantify losses during filtration.     

Assessment of sacrificial anode impact by aluminum accumulation in mussel Mytilus edulis: a large-scale laboratory test

Since the early 1960s, the application of aluminum alloy sacrificial anodes to mitigate marine corrosion has been well known. The aim of this work was to study aluminum bioconcentration in Mytilus edulis by an in vitro test performed in two tanks: the first containing non-contaminated water (NCW) and the second containing aluminum-contaminated water (CW) (530 μg L⁻¹) released by sacrificial anode. The mussels were collected and examined over a period of 8 weeks. A comparison between the aluminum concentrations in the digestive glands of mussels from the CW and NCW tanks shows that the highest value (1700 mg/kg d.w.) was found in the CW mussels collected after 13 days. In NCW, the mean aluminum concentration in digestive glands during the test was 281 mg/kg d.w. The rapid concentration decrease in digestive glands is probably due to the inhibition of filtering activity due to valve closure at the high concentration as well as the induction of the detoxification response.     

Development and application of a physically based landscape water balance in the SWAT model

Watershed scale hydrological and biogeochemical models rely on the correct spatial‐temporal prediction of processes governing water and contaminant movement. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, one of the most commonly used watershed scale models, uses the popular curve number (CN) method to determine the respective amounts of infiltration and surface runoff. Although appropriate for flood forecasting in temperate climates, the CN method has been shown to be less than ideal in many situations (e.g. monsoonal climates and areas dominated by variable source area hydrology). The CN model is based on the assumption that there is a unique relationship between the average moisture content and the CN for all hydrologic response units (HRUs), and that the moisture content distribution is similar for each runoff event, which is not the case in many regions. Presented here is a physically based water balance that was coded in the SWAT model to replace the CN method of runoff generation. To compare this new water balance SWAT (SWAT‐WB) to the original CN‐based SWAT (SWAT‐CN), two watersheds were initialized; one in the headwaters of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and one in the Catskill Mountains of New York. In the Ethiopian watershed, streamflow predictions were better using SWAT‐WB than SWAT‐CN [Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) of 0·79 and 0·67, respectively]. In the temperate Catskills, SWAT‐WB and SWAT‐CN predictions were approximately equivalent (NSE > 0·70). The spatial distribution of runoff‐generating areas differed greatly between the two models, with SWAT‐WB reflecting the topographical controls imposed on the model. Results show that a water balance provides results equal to or better than the CN, but with a more physically based approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainties in determining microbial biomass C using the chloroform fumigation–extraction method

We tested the accuracy of the chloroform fumigation–extraction method, which is commonly used to determine soil biomass C concentrations. Accurate and precise determination of total microbial biomass is important in order to characterize soil properties and to develop predictive metal transport models for soils. Two natural soils, and individual soil components, including silica sand, montmorillonite, kaolinite, a humic acid, and Bacillus subtilis bacterial cells, were fumigated for 24 h. Following the fumigation, C from fumigated and unfumigated samples was extracted using a 0.5 M K₂SO₄ solution. The difference between the C content in the fumigated and unfumigated samples ideally represents C due to biomass because the fumigation procedure should lyse cells and release biomass C. We observed increased C release upon fumigation for bacteria-only samples, confirming the ability of fumigation to lyse cells. There was no difference in extracted C concentration between fumigated and unfumigated samples of silica sand and of humic acid, confirming that the fumigation process does not introduce additional organic C to samples of these soil components. However, the fumigated clay samples both showed increased C release relative to the unfumigated controls, indicating that significant concentrations of the fumigant, chloroform, adsorbed onto the clay minerals studied here. Additionally, we found significant chloroform remaining in the extracts from two fumigated natural soils. Attempts to remove the chloroform from the soils or soil components prior to extraction by increasing the evacuation time, or to remove chloroform in the extracts by sparging them vigorously with nitrogen gas, both failed. This research reveals that chloroform gas may adsorb significantly to clays and the clay fraction of natural soils. Thus, the fumigation–extraction method must be corrected to account for the added chloroform C and accurately assess the concentration of biomass C in soils that contain significant concentrations of clays.