基于逆推法和德尔菲法的地质灾害气象服务效益评估

地质灾害气象服务发挥越来越重要的作用,既有可量化的经济效益,也有不可忽视难以量化的、潜在的社会效益和生态效益。根据历年地质灾害调查与分析数据,运用逆推法结合德尔菲法,建立地质灾害气象服务效益评估模型,并根据已有研究及防汛经验对模型的系数进行量化。模型以地质灾害气象预报评分和灾害直接经济损失为输入,以防灾减灾效益值、防灾减灾效益百分率、气象服务直接经济效益、气象服务直接经济效益百分率为输出,可同时对各区域、各时间段的地质灾害过程进行气象服务效益分段评估,也可评估年度地质灾害气象服务效益。该模型在2017年地质灾害气象效益评估中表现良好,有一定指导意义。     

饥饿对方斑东风螺形态和组织生化成分的影响

以室内实验测定了方斑东风螺（Babylonia areolata）在饥饿120d过程中形态、组织生化成分及RNA/DNA比值的连续变化.结果显示,饥饿前期幼螺体重变幅较小,肝体比与体壳比下降迅速,三者分别于饥饿80、40、20d时显著地低于对照组,至饥饿120d时其降幅分别为22.33%、44.02%、30.39%.方斑东风螺在饥饿过程中,螺足肌与肝胰脏的水分含量分别从80.19%、48.44%上升至89.68%、63.97%;灰分含量分别从11.35%、8.92%增加至22.80%、16.52%;肝胰脏蛋白质含量从53.18%上升至56.65%.饥饿40d时,其足肌、肝胰脏脂肪含量均显著低于对照组,糖原含量在其饥饿20、40d时也显著地下降.饥饿120d时,其足肌的脂肪和糖原含量相应降幅分别为32.22%、44.64%,而肝胰脏的脂肪和糖原含量相应降幅则分别为26.87%、47.17%.足肌蛋白质含量在其饥饿80d前较稳定,后期迅速下降,实验结束时降幅为8.61%.这2种组织的RNA/DNA比值也呈逐渐下降趋势.上述结果表明,在饥饿状态下幼螺主要消耗这2种组织中脂肪与糖原的供能,当禁食长达80d后则加大对足肌蛋白质的动用,而相对保留肝胰脏蛋白质.组织含水量、RNA/DNA比值均可作为方斑东风螺饥饿状态下的营养预测指标.     

Evaluating coastal scenery using fuzzy logic: Application at selected sites in Western Black Sea coastal region of Turkey

Coastal areas of the world are under treat due to the conflicting requirements of functions such as habitation and/or recreation, which affect the strategic asset of coastal scenery itself. Coastal managers, together with planners, need coastal landscape inventories, where the quality of coastal scenery is a part of the inventory. In order to provide an evidence-based approach for sound coastal management decisions, [Ergin et al., 2004] and [Ergin et al., 2006] developed a novel technique ‘coastal scenic evaluation’ (CSE), which addresses the evaluation of coastal scenery. The CSE technique utilizes fuzzy logic to derive values obtained from a checklist of 26 physical and human parameters. The methodology enables the calculation of an evaluation index (D), which categorizes the scenic values of coastal sites into five distinct classes. Using this technique, coastal scenic evaluations were carried out at 34 selected sites on the Western Black Sea coast of Turkey. Based on the calculated D values, a five-class differentiation was obtained for the selected sites, to provide baseline information for any envisaged subsequent management plans for these areas.     

GIS-based assessment of landslide susceptibility on the base of the Weights-of-Evidence model

The major scope of the study is the assessment of landslide susceptibility of Flysch areas including the Penninic Klippen in the Vienna Forest (Lower Austria) by means of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based modelling. A statistical/probabilistic method, referred to as Weights-of-Evidence (WofE), is applied in a GIS environment in order to derive quantitative spatial information on the predisposition to landslides. While previous research in this area concentrated on local geomorphological, pedological and slope stability analyses, the present study is carried out at a regional level. The results of the modelling emphasise the relevance of clay shale zones within the Flysch formations for the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the distribution of mass movements is closely connected to the fault system and nappe boundaries. An increased frequency of landslides is observed in the proximity to drainage lines, which can change to torrential conditions after heavy rainfall. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility is enhanced on N-W facing slopes, which are exposed to the prevailing direction of wind and rainfall. Both of the latter geofactors indirectly show the major importance of the hydrological conditions, in particular, of precipitation and surface runoff, for the occurrence of mass movements in the study area. Model performance was checked with an independent validation set of landslides, which are not used in the model. An area of 15% of the susceptibility map, classified as highly susceptible, “predicted” 40% of the landslides.     

Palaeokarst-influenced depositional and diagenetic patterns in Upper Permian carbonates and evaporites, Karstryggen area, central East Greenland

The Karstryggen area of eastern Greenland represents the western edge of sedimentation in the Jameson Land Basin, an arm of the northern Zechstein seaway. Upper Permian strata of this area were deposited as two major sequences. The first marine incursion transgressed largely peneplaned Lower Permian strata and deposited thin, paralic conglomerates, sandstones and shales (the Huledal Formation) followed by a thick package of carbonates and evaporites (the Karstryggen Formation). Although the Karstryggen Formation represents the transgressive maximum of this sequence, it contains only marginal or restricted marine strata, including micritic, stromatolitic and peloidal carbonates and thick, but localized, bedded gypsum deposits. These lithofacies indicate that relatively arid climates prevailed in this basin, as in most of the Zechstein region. A major regression, associated with a change to a more humid climate, terminated Karstryggen sedimentation. Pre-existing evaporites and carbonates underwent diagenetic alteration, including widespread calcitization and dissolution of gypsum. More importantly, topographic relief in excess of 120 m was generated by fluvial drainage systems and karstic sinkholes. A second marine incursion, accompanied by a return to a semi-arid climate, drowned this high relief topography, producing a complex sequence of strata (the Wegener Halvø Formation) in which sedimentation was greatly influenced by the rugged underlying terrain. Marine cemented algal-molluscan grainstones draped pre-existing palaeotopography during the initial stages of flooding. Continued drowning led to differential sedimentation on ‘highs’ and in ‘lows’. Oolitic and bryozoan-brachiopod grainstones formed as shoals on the crests of most prominences, whereas shales, conglomeratic debris flows, evaporites, or oolitic turbidites were deposited in the lows. More restricted sedimentation took place in the westernmost areas which lay closest to the mainland shoreline and were situated to the west of a palaeotopographic ridge. There, oolitic, stromatolitic and evaporitic strata were deposited under hypersaline conditions indicative of a return to more arid climatic conditions. Three subcycles mark smaller scale relative changes of sea level that occurred during deposition of the Wegener Halvø Formation; they are delimited by regional surfaces with moderate relief (5–20 m) developed during subaerial exposure. Widespread diagenetic changes, including leaching of aragonitic grains, dissolution/collapse brecciation of evaporites and meteoric calcite cementation, occurred in association with these smaller scale sequence boundaries, again reflecting climatic oscillations. Relative sea level fluctuations, coupled with regional climate changes, played a dominant role in determining both depositional and diagenetic relations in these strata. These features undoubtedly extend into subsurface parts of this basin as well as into yet unexplored areas of the northern Zechstein Basin and Barents Shelf, and may have economic significance for the localization of hydrocarbons.     

碱性玄武岩形成的时限及其地质意义

中国华北克拉通及邻区的早前寒武纪不存在碱性玄武岩。全球范围内碱性玄武岩的形成也存在时限性，它们在中新生代以来相对大量的出现。碱性玄武岩可划分为钾质碱性玄武岩和钠质碱性玄武岩两大类，后者还可作进一步划分。它们在同位素组成和元素组成上存在相互过渡的变化，这与地幔源区外来加入物质的种类和比例不同有关。高压和低程度熔融是所有碱性玄武岩形成的必要条件。研究表明，碱性玄武岩形成具时限性主要与地球热状态从热向冷的历史演化有关。碱性玄武岩的形成需要地幔俯冲作用，可达到相当深度的地幔俯冲作用只是到了太古宙以后才发生，并在中新生代以来达到高潮。     

Depositional mechanics of turbulent nuées ardentes (surges) from their grain sizes

The ability of turbulent nuées ardentes (surges) to transport coarse pyroclasts has been questioned on the basis that settling velocities of coarse fragments in the deposits are much too high for them to have been supported by turbulence in a dilute gas suspension. A computer model is used to evaluate the settling velocity of pyroclasts in suspensions of varying concentration and temperature. Since suspension of grains in low-concentration surges occurs if the shear velocity exceeds the settling velocity, the shear velocities related to the 16th and 84th percentiles, and the mean of the grain-size distribution are compared in surge deposits of the Vulsini, with the shear velocity necessary to move the coarsest grain on the bed surface (the Shields criterion). The results show that the settling velocities do not vary significantly in gaseous suspensions having volume concentrations lower than 15%, and that an increase in concentration to 25% is not sufficient to decrease the settling velocity of the coarser fraction, if it represents flow shear velocity. It is shown that the settling velocity of the mean grain size (M _z ) best depicts the shear velocity of a dilute turbulent suspension. Applying the results to the May 1902 paroxysmal nuées ardentes of Mount Pelée shows that the estimated mean velocities are well within the observed velocities, and sufficient to support all the clasts in dilute, turbulent suspensions.     

Element Mobility During Incipient Granulite Formation at Kabbaldurga, Southern India

At Kabbaldurga, infiltration of carbonic fluids along a systemof ductile shears and foliation planes has led to partial transformationof Archaean grey biotite–hornblende gneiss to coarse-grainedmassive charnockite at about 2.5 b.y. ago. The dehydration ofthe gneiss assemblage was induced by a marked metasomatic changeof the reacting system from granodioritic to granitic, and obviouslytook place under conditions of an open system at 700–750?C and 5–7 kb. Extensive replacement of plagioclase (An_16–30)by K-feldspar through Na, Ca–K exchange reactions withthe ascending carbonic fluids led to strong enrichment in K,Rb, Ba, and SiO₂, and to a depletion in Ca. Progressive dissolutionof hornblende, biotite, magnetite, and the accessory mineralsapatite and zircon resulted in a marked depletion in Fe, Mg,Ti, Zn, V, P, and Zr. Most important is the recognition of REEmobility: with advancing charnockitization, the moderately fractionatedREE distribution patterns of the grey gneisses (La_N270; La_N/Yb_N= 5–20; Eu_N27; Eu/Eu^* = 0.6–0.3) give way to stronglyfractionated REE patterns with a positive Eu-anomaly (La_N200;La_N/Yb_N = 20–80; Eu_N22; Eu/Eu^* = 0.6–1.8). The systematicdepletion especially in the HREE is due to the progressive dissolutionof zircon, apatite (and monazite), which strongly concentratethe REE. Stable isotope data (¹⁸O of 6.9–8.0 per mille for gneissesand charnockites; ¹³C of –8.5 and –6.5 per millefor late carbonate) indicate a magmatogenic source for the carbonicfluids. In contrast to the currently favoured derivation ofcarbonic fluids by decarbonation of the upper mantle or degassingof underplated basaltic intrusions, it is discussed here thatabundant fluid inclusions in lower crustal charnockites providedan extensive reservoir of ‘fossil’ carbonic fluids.Shear deformation has tapped this reservoir and generated thechannel-ways for fluid ascent. Charnockitization of the Kabbaldurgatypethus appears to be a metasomatic process which is tectonicallycontrolled and restricted to the crustal level of the amphiboliteto granulite transition.