The New Geophysics

New Geophysics of critically microcracked rock is a new understanding of fluid‐rock deformation that matches much of the behaviour of in situ rock observed throughout the Earth's crust and uppermost mantle. The behaviour of rock in New Geophysics: is self‐similar; can be monitored, calculated, predicted, even in principle controlled; prevails in almost all rocks; and has ‘butterfly‐effect’ sensitivity. All of these remarkable features (except controllability) have been observed, in some cases many times. However, New Geophysics is innovative, controversial, and currently “ridiculed” and “violently opposed” (Schopenhauer Stages 1 and 2), and is difficult to get published via consensus‐driven peer‐review. Consequently, in the last 10 years, various aspects of New Geophysics have been published in some 20 different journals and conference proceedings making it difficult to access by the general reader. This review presents a synopsis of what is believed to be a fundamental advance in solid Earth geoscience.     

Two species of microcracks

We identify two interrelated but independent species of microcracks with differentorigins and different distributions. One species is the classic high-stress microcracksidentified in laboratory stress-cells associated with acoustic emissions as microcracks openwith increasing stress. The other species is the low-stress distributions of closely-spacedstress-aligned fluid-saturated microcracks that observations of shear-wave splitting （SWS）demonstrate pervade almost all in situ rocks in the upper crust, the lower crust, and theuppermost 400 km of the mantle. On some occasions these two sets of microcracks may beinterrelated and similar （hence ＇species＇） but they typically have fundamentally-differentproperties, different distributions, and different implications. The importance for hydrocarbonexploration and recovery is that SWS in hydrocarbon reservoirs monitors crack alignmentsand preferred directions of fluid-flow. The importance for earthquake seismology is that SWSabove small earthquakes monitors the effects of increasing stress on the pervasive low-stressmicrocrack distributions so that stress-accumulation before, possibly distant, earthquakes canbe recognised and impendin~ earthquakes stress-forecast.     

地震能够应力预测

1997年Geller等人曾发表"地震不能预报",因为在自组织临界系统中尺度不变性是普遍存在的,而地球正处于自组织临界状态中,在这种状态下小地震具有某种概率,如瀑布般触发大的地震事件。但是在物理上,只有对应其地震震级的应力能量得到有效释放,才能有大地震的发生。利用对这种应力的依赖性可以进行地震预测,方法就是利用剪切波分裂来监控即将发生地震的周围岩体的应力积累。这项技术可以说是成功的,但是由于假定的不可预报性,所以需要清晰的论证才能被普遍接受。雪崩也是自组织临界现象。近期通过二维球形素珠堆进行的雪崩实验观测表明,具有自组织临界性的自然物理现象是能够预报的,如雪崩、地震等。预报地震和雪崩的关键是监控母体介质,而不是即将发震的震源区。     

Interpreting non-orthogonal split shear waves for seismic anisotropy in multicomponent VSPS

There are two main sources of non-orthogonality in multicomponent shear-wave seismics: inherent non-orthogonal split shear waves arising from substantial ray deviation in off-symmetry planes due to strong anisotropy or complex overburden, and apparent non-orthogonal split shear waves in the horizontal plane due to variation of the angle of incidence even if the two shear waves along the raypath are orthogonal. Many techniques for processing shear-wave splitting in VSP data ignore these kinds of non-orthogonality of the split shear waves. Assuming inherent non-orthogonality in zero-offset VSPs, and apparent non-orthogonality in offset VSPs, we derive equations for the four-component data matrix. These can be solved by extending the linear-transform technique (LTT) to determine the shear-wave polarizations in zero-offset and offset VSPs. Both full-wave synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the technique and to examine the effects of non-orthogonal polarized split shear waves. If orthogonality is incorrectly assumed, errors in polarization measurements increase with the degree of non-orthogonality, which introduces a consistent decreasing trend in the polarization measurements. However, the effect of non-orthogonality on the estimation of geophone orientation and time delays of the two split shear waves is small and negligible in most realistic cases. Furthermore, for most cases of weak anisotropy (less than 5% shear-wave anisotropy) apparent non-orthogonality is more significant than inherent non-orthogonality. Nevertheless, for strong anisotropy (more than 10% shear-wave anisotropy) with complicated structure (tilted or inclined symmetry axis), inherent non-orthogonality may no longer be negligible. Applications to both synthetic and real data show that the extended linear-transform techniques permit accurate recovery of polarization measurements in the presence of both significant inherent and apparent non-orthogonality where orthogonal techniques often fail.     

The basis for earthquake prediction

Summary. Recent advances in understanding the behaviour of shear waves propagating in the crust make the routine prediction of earthquakes seem practicable. Accumulating evidence suggests that most of the Earth's crust is pervaded by distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks that are aligned by the contemporary stress-field so that the cracked rockmass is effectively anisotropic to seismic waves. This causes shear-waves to split, and shear-wave splitting is observed whenever shear-waves propagating along suitable raypaths in the crust are recorded by three-component instruments. These distributions of cracks are known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy or EDA. Many characteristics of the crack- and stress-geometry can be monitored by analyzing shear-waves propagating through the cracked rockmass. Observations of temporal variations of the behaviour of shear-wave splitting in seismic gaps confirm these hypotheses, and suggest that stress changes before earthquakes may be monitored by analyzing shear-waves. In particular, monitoring earthquake preparation zones with three-component shear-wave vertical-seismic-profiles could lead to techniques for the routine prediction of earthquakes.     

关于“可操作性地震预报:有关‘为什么’和‘怎么办’的几点思考”的另一种见解

2009年4月6日,意大利拉奎拉（L’Aquila）发生Mw6．3地震,造成意大利中部308人死亡。地震后,意大利政府召集了一次国际地震预报委员会（ICEF）会议。在近期出版的《地震研究快报》（Seismological Research Letters）“见解”栏目中,