The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important tool to compare the costs and benefits of different climate policies. Recently, attention has been given to the effect of different discounting methods and damage estimates on the results of IAMs. One aspect to which little attention has been paid is how the representation of the climate system may affect the estimated benefits of mitigation action. In that respect, we analyse several well-known IAMs, including the newest versions of FUND, DICE and PAGE. Given the role of IAMs in integrating information from different disciplines, they should ideally represent both best estimates and the ranges of anticipated climate system and carbon cycle behaviour (as e.g. synthesised in the IPCC Assessment reports). We show that in the longer term, beyond 2100, most IAM parameterisations of the carbon cycle imply lower CO₂ concentrations compared to a model that captures IPCC AR4 knowledge more closely, e.g. the carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC6. With regard to the climate component, some IAMs lead to much lower benefits of mitigation than MAGICC6. The most important reason for the underestimation of the benefits of mitigation is the failure in capturing climate dynamics correctly, which implies this could be a potential development area to focus on.     

Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3°C, +17% rainfall; +2°C, ?7% rainfall; and +3°C, ?46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO₂ were found to offset declines in forage production under 2°C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.     

Is an onset vortex important for monsoon onset over Kerala?

Inter-annual variability in the formation of the mini warm pool [sea-surface temperature (SST)>30°C] over the south eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) and its role in the formation of the monsoon onset vortex (MOV) has been examined using two independent SST data sets. The role of SST, convection, integrated columnar water vapour and the low-level jet in the setting up of the monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK) is examined. It is found that the MOV which forms over the SEAS region upsets the delicate balance between convection, buildup of moisture and strengthening and deepening of the westerlies over the SEAS that is needed for the setting up of the MOK. Thus, the formation over the SEAS of an MOV is not necessarily conducive for MOK. Furthermore, it is shown that a mini warm pool over the southeastern Arabian Sea is not a sufficient condition for the formation of an MOV because such a warm pool is present over this region during most of the years, but an MOV does not necessarily form over there.     

On the direction of Rossby wave breaking in blocking

The direction of Rossby wave breaking at the onset of large-scale atmospheric blocking events is shown to relate closely to its position relative to the location of the climatological storm tracks. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from October 1989 to March 2009 and a dynamically-based blocking index, Rossby wave breaking is shown to occur preferentially cyclonically to the north, and anticyclonically to the south of the average storm tracks location. Therefore the results support existing theory on the relation between Rossby wave breaking direction and barotropic shear of the background wind. The further away from the storm tracks the breaking occurs, the stronger this preference in breaking direction. Regional differences can also be explained. For the European region on average 70?% of the detected blocking took place after anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking event that occurred on average 6° south of the climatological storm tracks position. Over Western Pacific wave breaking prior to blocking occurs predominantly cyclonically and on average 6° north of the storm tracks. Differences in blocking duration and intensity are found to be within estimated error margins at most longitudes, except for the Atlantic-Europe sector where the blocking events following anticyclonic blocking are also the strongest.     

Constraints on the genesis of gold mineralization at the Homestake Gold Deposit, Black Hills, South Dakota from rhenium–osmium sulfide geochronology

The Homestake gold deposit, located in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA, is one of the largest known hydrothermal gold deposits globally, with total mining production exceeding 40 Moz Au. Rhenium–osmium geochronology of ore-associated arsenopyrite and pyrrhotite was performed in an effort to delineate the timing of gold mineralization in relation to known tectonothermal events in the northern Black Hills. Arsenopyrite yields a rhenium–osmium (Re–Os) age of 1,736 ± 8 Ma (mean squared weighted deviation = 1.6), consistent with existing age constraints for gold mineralization, whereas Re–Os pyrrhotite data are highly scattered and do not yield a meaningful mineralization age. This is taken to indicate that the Re–Os arsenopyrite chronometer is robust to at least 400°C, whereas the Re–Os pyrrhotite chronometer is likely disturbed by temperatures of 300–350°C. The Re–Os arsenopyrite age and initial Os ratio (0.28 ± 0.15) are interpreted to indicate that gold was introduced at ca. 1,730 Ma, coincident with the onset of exhumation of crustal blocks and, possibly, the earliest intrusive phases of Harney Peak granite magmatism. New in situ U–Pb monazite analyses from an aplite dike in the east-central Black Hills indicate that granite magmatism was a protracted event, persisting until at least ca. 1,690 Ma.     

Middle Holocene Bison diet and mobility in the eastern Great Plains (USA) based on δC, δO, and Sr/Sr analyses of tooth enamel carbonate

During the Holocene, bison (Bison bison) were key components of the Great Plains landscape. This study utilizes serial stable isotope analyses (tooth enamel carbonate) of 29 individuals from five middle Holocene (∼ 7–8.5 ka) archaeological sites to address seasonal variability in movement patterns and grazing behavior of bison populations in the eastern Great Plains. Stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) indicate a bison diet that is similar to the C3/C4 composition of modern tallgrass prairies, while ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values generally indicate very little seasonal movement (< 50 km) and relatively limited inter-annual movement (< 500 km) over the course of 4–5 yr. Analyses of variability in serial stable oxygen isotope samples (δ¹⁸O) further substantiate a model of localized bison herds that adhered to upland areas of the eastern Plains and prairie–forest border.     

Transient currents in the global electric circuit due to cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning

Intracloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes produce transient changes in the electric field (E) above a thundercloud which drive transient currents in the global electric circuit (GEC). Using in-cloud and above-cloud E data from balloons, ground-based E data, and Lightning Mapping Array data, the above-cloud charge transfers due to lightning transients are estimated for five IC and five CG flashes from four thunderstorms that occurred above the mountains in New Mexico, USA, in 1999. For the five CG flashes (which transferred − 4 to − 13 C to the ground), the transient currents moved + 1 to + 5 C of charge upward from cloudtop toward the ionosphere, with an average transient charge transfer of about 35% of the charge transferred to ground. For the five IC flashes (which neutralized 6 to 21 C inside the cloud), the transient currents moved − 0.7 to − 3 C upward, with an average transient charge transfer of about 12% of the lightning charge. Estimates for three thunderstorms indicate that the transient currents made only a small GEC contribution compared to the quasi-stationary Wilson currents because of the offsetting effects of IC and CG flashes in these storms. However, storms with extreme characteristics, such as high flash rates or predominance of one flash type, may make a significant GEC contribution via lightning transients.     

Sustainable Household Capability: which households are doing the work of environmental sustainability?

This paper presents a framework for analysing which households are doing ‘their bit’ for sustainability in an era of climate change, using a two-stage cluster analysis of sustainable household capabilities. The framework segments households by their reported level of commitment to ‘pro-sustainability’ practices common to conventional government policies. Results are presented from a large-scale survey of Wollongong households, New South Wales, Australia. Results illustrate the importance of approaching household sustainability through everyday practices. Attention is drawn to the wide variation in participation in specific household sustainability practices. Investigation into sustainable household capability by household segments shows the limits of even the most committed households. Results show the importance of socio-cultural contexts in differentiating sustainable household capabilities—with women, suburban-detached households and lower income segments of the population ultimately doing most of the work of being sustainable.     

东莞地区土地利用变化预测的CBR和CA方法对比研究(英文)

Many studies on land use change(LUC),using different approaches and models,have yielded good results.Applications of these methods have revealed both advantages and limitations.However,LUC is a complex problem due to influences of many factors,and variations in policy and natural conditions.Hence,the characteristics and regional suitability of different methods require further research,and comparison of typical approaches is re-quired.Since the late 1980s,CA has been used to simulate urban growth,urban sprawl and land use evolution successfully.Nowadays it is very popular in resolving the LUC estimating problem.Case-based reasoning(CBR),as an artificial intelligence technology,has also been employed to study LUC by some researchers since the 2000s.More and more researchers used the CBR method in the study of LUC.The CA approach is a mathematical system con-structed from many typical simple components,which together are capable of simulating complex behavior,while CBR is a problem-oriented analysis method to solve geographic problems,particularly when the driving mechanisms of geographic processes are not yet understood fully.These two methods were completely different in the LUC research.Thus,in this paper,based on the enhanced CBR model,which is proposed in our previous research(Du et al.2009),a comparison between the CBR and CA approaches to assessing LUC is presented.LUC in Dongguan coastal region,China is investigated.Applications of the im-proved CBR and the cellular automata(CA) to the study area,produce results demonstrating a similarity estimation accuracy of 89% from the improved CBR,and 70.7% accuracy from the CA.From the results,we can see that the accuracies of the CA and CBR approaches are both >70%.Although CA method has the distinct advantage in predicting the urban type,CBR method has the obvious tendency in predicting non-urban type.Considering the entire ana-lytical process,the preprocessing workload in CBR is less than that of the CA approach.As such,it could be concluded that the CBR approach is more flexible and practically useful than the CA approach for estimating land use change.