着力加强四大能力建设努力提升气象为农村改革发展服务水平

阐述了新时期推进农村改革发展对气象工作提出的新要求,以及农村防灾减灾、保障粮食安全、发展现代农业、农业应对气候变化对气象服务的新需求。面对新要求、新需求,江西气象部门必须坚持以科学发展观为指导,以服务农村经济社会发展和农民福祉安康为宗旨,以提高面向“三农”气象服务能力为核心,加快推进城乡公共气象服务均等化,着力建设发展适应江西省农业防灾减灾、农业应对气候变化、粮食安全保障、社会主义新农村建设需要的现代农业气象业务,着力发展农村公共气象服务,着力提升气象为农服务科技水平,努力实现气象为农村改革发展服务的新突破。     

一次飑线天气过程的综合分析

利用常规观测资料和自动气象站资料、雷达回波图,从天气学、不稳定层结及水汽条件和雷达回波特征等方面综合分析了2006年6月25日影响洛阳的一次飑线天气过程的活动规律和物理成因.分析表明:此次较强的飑线天气过程是在高空冷涡后部西北气流的天气尺度形势下出现的,中尺度对流系统飑线以后续线型为主的型式形成.高空弱冷空气的入侵加剧了层结的不稳定性.弓形或带状回波、强(55 dBz以上)又高(或高度突降)的雷达反射率因子、逆风区、入流缺口、强的风速辐合带、高VIL值(50 kg·m-2以上)或VIL值突变及冰雹指数等雷达回波特征,对此类强对流天气的发生有较好的预警作用.     

新一代天气雷达与闪电定位仪资料在一次区域性暴雨过程中的分析应用

根据一次大范围暴雨天气过程的闪电定位资料和多普勒雷达资料,利用统计和对比分析的方法,发现了闪电发生频数、强度和雷达回波强度在时间序列上有较好的一致性;在雷达回波发展的不同阶段,闪电发生的位置与雷达强回波位置有时相同,有时偏离,有时甚至无闪电发生;雷达回波速度场分析表明,在低层存在不利于对流发展的环境风场特征时,降水回波在向测站移动的过程中趋于消散,闪电频数也随着减少;在降水回波速度辐合区,对应闪电活动频繁。     

Visibility trends in six megacities in China 1973–2007

The particulate matter pollution has been serious in Chinese megacities due to the rapidly expanding economic and industrial developments, which has significant influences in atmospheric visibility. Visibility is a highly relevant factor indicating the level of atmospheric quality, and is inversely related to the optical extinction coefficient caused by gas and particle phases. In our study, visibility trends for six major megacities (Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang, and Xi'an) in China were evaluated during 1973–2007 on the basis of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database using four measurement methods: the days per year of daily visibility < 10 km, the days per year of daily visibility > 19 km, the annual mean visibility, and the dry extinction coefficient. The annual and seasonal change trends of visibility for each city were analyzed by using a linear regression model. The annual mean visibilities for the six cities (Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang, and Xi'an) were 10.67, 8.60, 10.76, 8.59, 8.16, and 9.74 km respectively. Shenyang has experienced a significant increasing trend during the entire time series while visibilities for other five sites showed decreasing trends especially since the middle of 1990s. In the southern and midwestern regions (Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Xi'an), visibility was best in summer, whereas in the northern regions (Beijing and Shenyang), visibility was best in spring. Mean visibility in spring was worst at Guangzhou, while for the other five cities visibility in winter was worst, probably because of coal burning during the heating period. The general degradation of visibility in these megacities was probably due to the excess aerosol loading. Consequently, an urgent targeted reduction of aerosol pollution may be needed for the sake of better air quality in Chinese megacities.     

Are band-pass variance statistics useful measures of storm track activity? Re-examining storm track variability associated with the NAO using multiple storm track measures

Over the past few decades, band-pass filtered (BP) variance statistics have been widely used as indicators of storm track activity. A recent study suggested that these statistics may be subjected to biases related to Doppler shifting of variance into and out of the fixed frequency band, in the process perhaps greatly exaggerating the correlation between BP variance and mean flow variability. In this study, BP statistics are examined together with other storm track measures to assess whether BP variances are useful indicators of the patterns of storm track activity. Storm track variability related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as the five leading EOFs of 300 hPa BP filtered variance statistics, have been examined. Results presented here suggest that BP variance statistics are useful measures of the patterns of storm track activity. Firstly, BP variance statistics largely reflect changes in total unfiltered transient eddy variance as well as spatially filtered statistics. Secondly, different BP statistics all give qualitatively similar patterns. Thirdly, patterns derived from BP statistics are well correlated (spatially) with precipitation anomalies. In addition, BP statistics are straightforward to compute, and easily reproducible. Moreover, BP variance and covariance statistics are closely related to how storm tracks interact with the large scale circulation. However, results shown in this paper support the suggestion that some biases may be caused by the Doppler effect, especially for variations such as the NAO which are tightly tied to changes in the background flow speed. Thus it is argued that BP statistics should be examined together with other measures of storm track activity to obtain a broader perspective on storm track variations.     

塔里木盆地中南部麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带变形特征及其意义

麻扎塔格地区地层、地貌及构造变形特征的研究,对于认识塔里木盆地新生代构造演化过程、塔里木—西昆仑的盆山耦合关系、新构造运动对塔里木油气资源分布的影响以及塔克拉玛干沙漠的气候、环境变化都具有重要意义。本文通过卫星照片解译、野外变形观察、剖面实测、地球物理资料解释等手段,对该地区晚新生代的构造特征进行了研究,确定了麻扎塔格构造带为典型的逆冲—褶皱带,并探讨了麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带的构造指向、活动时限、隆升速率及缩短速率、东西方向的延伸等问题,取得如下认识:1)麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带为西昆仑山前陆褶皱冲断带的前缘部位,和田河气田就是处在逆冲前锋背斜顶部,晚新生代变形作用已明显地改造了塔里木盆地南部及中部的古生代和中生代构造,并促成了和田河气田的形成;2)麻扎塔格山在中新世末(约7 Ma)和中更新世(约780 ka B.P.)经历了两次构造隆升,后一次形成了麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带和麻扎塔格山现今的地貌特征;3)估算出麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带中更新世以来的隆升速率约为0.26～0.4 mm/a,缩短速率约为0.9 mm/a;4)认为麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带向西应与同属西昆仑山前褶皱—冲断带前缘的喀什背斜相连,东端的突然消失可能是由于东段和田河附近存在北东—南西向的走滑断层造成。     

Simultaneous declines in radon and methane precursory to 2008 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> 5.0 Antung earthquake: corroboration of in-situ volatilization

Radon volatilization mechanism into the gas phase was hypothesized to explain the anomalous decline in groundwater radon precursory to the 2003 M _W = 6.8 Chengkung earthquake in Taiwan. We initiated the monitoring of both radon and methane in the groundwater since November 2007 at well D1 in the Antung hot spring. The mechanism of in-situ radon volatilization has been corroborated by the simultaneous anomalous declines in groundwater-dissolved radon and methane precursory to the 2008 M _W 5.0 Antung earthquake.     

全新世呼伦湖区植被和气候变化的孢粉记录

文章详细分析了内蒙古呼伦湖HL06岩芯沉积的孢粉组合,基于AMS 14C年代标尺,恢复了全新世湖区植被演变过程;并根据我国北方和蒙古表土孢粉数据和气象资料,建立了孢粉-气候参数转换函数,定量重建了呼伦湖区降水和气温的变化历史.结果表明,11000～8000aB.P.,湖区植被以蒿、藜占优,为干草原景观,气候暖干;8000～6400aB.P.,湖区禾本植物扩张,山地桦林发育,降水显著增加,气温逐渐降低;6400～4400aB.P.,湖区早生草本植物增加,降水减少,气温继续下降;4400～3350aB.P.,耐旱藜科植物大量生长,湖区荒漠化,气候极端干旱;3350～2050aB.P.,湖区草原植被有所恢复,降水略有增加,气温有所回升;2050～1000aB.P.,湖区蒿属植物减少,山地松林发育,气温降至全新世最低;最近1000年,藜科、禾本科等伴人植物大量出现,反映出人类活动对湖区自然环境的影响.全新世呼伦湖区气温变化在轨道尺度上受控于北半球太阳辐射量的变化,而在亚轨道尺度上可能与东亚夏季风强度有关.距今8000年前湖区降水较弱可能因为早全新世北半球高纬残存冰盖抑制了东亚季风雨带的北上,季风降水的千年-百年尺度波动与热带西太平洋海气相互作用密切相关.     

腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰消期气候不稳定性记录

通过对红水河剖面元素地球化学和孢粉以及地层岩性的分析,在讨论了沉积地层连续性和记录完整性的基础上,重建了腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰消期的气候环境演变序列。结果表明,沉积物中Ca,Fe,Mg,K,Na和Mn等元素含量的变化以及结合其不同的孢粉组合,不仅与沉积环境紧密相关,而且可以很好地揭示该地区晚冰期以来气候环境变化的基本特征和历史,显示研究区在13.6～9.7cal.kaB.P.期间主要经历了以下几个阶段: 13.60～13.08cal.kaB.P.,12.75～12.20cal.kaB.P.和 11.60～10.45cal.kaB.P.期间气候较温暖湿润;  13.08～12.75cal.kaB.P.和10.45～9.70cal.kaB.P.期间气候相对冷干;  而在12.2～11.6cal.kaB.P.期间,则表现相对冷湿。自11.6cal.kaB.P.之后,研究区进入全新世暖期,元素Ca,Fe,Mg,K,Na及Mn的含量和孢粉A/C比值变化曲线均表明在全新世初期气候波动频繁,并在11.3cal.kaB.P.和10.5cal.kaB.P.左右出现较强的冷波动。通过与其他研究区地质记录对比,指出研究区腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰消期气候环境变化尽管存在一定的区域特点,但基本格局与全球气候变化一致。