Mixture models and atypical values

The resolution of a mixture of two or more populations into its component distributions may be markedly influenced by one or a few atypical values. The maximum likelihood solution effectively assigns (part of) each observation to one or another of the components via the posterior probabilities, even though the observation may be widely discrepant from all components. This paper presents a modification of the mixture problem, in which the typicality of each observation is considered, as well as the posterior probabilities, with the contribution of atypical observations being downweighted. The extension to the multivariate case is discussed.     

Radar and photoelectric observations of asteroid 2100 Ra-Shalom

Results of 13-cm-wavelength radar observations and V-filter photoelectric observations of Ra- Shalom during its 1981 Aug–Sep apparition are reported. The radar data yid detections of echoes in the same sense of circular polarization as transmitted (i.e., the SC sense) as well as in the opposite (OC) sense. The estimate of the ratio of SC to OC echo power, μ_c = 0.14 ± 0.02, indicates that most, but certainly not all, of the backscattering is due to single reflections from surface elements that are fairly smooth at decimeter scales. The value obtained for the OC radar cross section on Aug 26 (1.2 ± 0.3 km²) is about three times larger than those obtained on Aug 23, 24, and 25. The echo bandwidth appears to be within about 1.5 Hz of 5.0 Hz on each date. The photoelectric data suggest a value, P_syn = 19.79 hr, for the synodic rotation period, and yield a composite lightcurve with two pairs of extrema. Combining this value for P_syn with a firm lower bound (4 Hz) on the maximum echo bandwidth yields a lower bound of 1.4 km on the maximum distance between Ra-Shalom's spin axis and any point on its surface.     

Absolute stellar photometry in the region 1900–3000 Å

Twin channel stellar photometers were flown in two sounding rockets in May 1967 and produced a number of absolute photoelectric measurements in the region 2000–3000 Å.The observations were made at wavelengths centred on 2150 Å and 2550 Å with passbands of 300 Å on 28 early-type stars in the range of spectral types B0-B9.5 down to a limiting visual magnitude of 4.8.A comparison of the experimental data with other observations and with the theoretically derived fluxes of Mihalas for unblanketed models, indicates a satisfactory agreement within the limits of the known photometric accuracies, although there are significant departures for those stars exhibiting emission characteristics and for the magnetic variable ₂ Canum Venaticorum.     

Picophytoplankton and bacterioplankton in the Mississippi River plume and its adjacent waters

Picoplankton abundance and distribution in the Mississippi River plume and its adjacent waters were studied during two cruises in April (high discharge) and October (low discharge) 2000 using flow cytometry. Concentrations of photosynthetic picoplankton,Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes were low in the turbid plume water but high in the coastal waters—i.e., the green waters resulting from mixing of river and oceanic waters. In this region, three types ofSynechococcus, characterized by their phycoerythrin chromophore composition, were found:Synechococcus cells with a low phycourobilin to phycoerythrobilin ratio (PUB:PEB) occurred throughout the region and dominated the totalSymechococcus abundance during both seasons; high PUB:PEB cells, which are the dominant strains in the open or blue ocean, occurred only at the outer shelf stations; and PEB-onlySynechococcus were abundant in most of the surveyed area during april, but were not observed during October.Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria only occurred at the oceanic stations, but extended farther inshore in October compared to April. This was a consequence of the reduced discharge and plume size during October. Picophytoplankton were a less important component of total phytoplankton biomass in the turbid river water and more important in the oligotrophic Gulf water. Seasonally, the contribution of picophytoplankton to total phytoplankton biomass in the surveyed area was higher during low discharge in October than during high discharge in April, even though the spring 2000 river discharge was unusually low and might not present a typical high discharge scenario. The abundance of heterotrophic bacteria was weakly correlated to chlorophylla (chla) concentration, but better correlated to picophytoplankton biomass. A higher proportion of High DNA bacteria occurred in the river-impacted regions during both seasons, with the ratio of High DNA bacteria to Low DNA bacteria significantly higher in April.     

Solubility of Pt in sulphide mattes: Implications for the genesis of PGE-rich horizons in layered intrusions

The partitioning of Pt in sulphide melt (matte) has been studied as a function of fS₂ and fO₂ at 1200 and 1300 °C. The results show that the solubility of Pt in mattes increases strongly with increasing fS₂ and decreases weakly with increasing fO₂. The increase in Pt solubility with increasing fS₂ is attributed to Pt dissolving in the melt as a sulphide species and the weak inverse dependence of Pt solubility on fO₂ to the diluting effect of increasing O in the melt at high fO₂. These results, coupled with measurements of Pt solubility in silicate melts taken from the literature, allow the calculation of Pt matte/silicate-melt partition coefficients () for a range of conditions pertinent to the formation of Pt-rich horizons in layered intrusions. The calculated values range between 10⁷ and 10¹¹, depending on fO₂ and fS₂, several orders of magnitude higher than previously published values. Our preferred value for for conditions appropriate to the Merensky Reef is 10⁷ and for the Stillwater Pt-rich horizon 10⁸. The new results are consistent with the magmatic hypothesis for Pt-rich horizons in layered intrusions.     

The influence of turbidity currents and contour currents on the distribution of deep‐water sediment waves offshore eastern Canada

Sediment waves are commonly observed on the sea floor and often vary in morphology and geometry according to factors such as seabed slope, density and discharge of turbidity currents, and the presence of persistent contour currents. This paper documents the morphology, internal geometry and distribution of deep‐water (4000 to 5000 m) bedforms observed on the sea floor offshore eastern Canada using high‐resolution multibeam bathymetry data and seismic stratigraphy. The bedforms have wavelengths of >1 km but fundamentally vary in terms of morphology and internal stratigraphy, and are distinguished into three main types. The first type, characterized by their long‐wavelength crescentic shape, is interpreted as net‐erosional cyclic steps. These cyclic steps were formed by turbidity currents flowing through canyons and overtopping and breaching levées. The second type, characterized by their linear shape and presence on levées, is interpreted as net‐depositional cyclic steps. These upslope migrating bedforms are strongly aggradational, indicating high sediment deposition from turbidity currents. The third type, characterized by their obliqueness to canyons, is observed on an open slope and is interpreted as antidunes. These antidunes were formed by the deflection of the upper dilute, low‐density parts of turbidity currents by contour currents. The modelling of the behaviour of these different types of turbidity currents reveals that fast‐flowing flows form cyclic steps while their upper parts overspill and are entrained westward by contour currents. The interaction between turbidity currents and contour currents results in flow thickening and reduced sediment concentration, which leads to lower flow velocities. Lower velocities, in turn, allow the formation of antidunes instead of cyclic steps because the densiometric Froude number (Fr′) decreases. Therefore, this study shows that both net‐erosional and net‐depositional cyclic steps are distributed along channels where turbidity currents prevail whereas antidunes form on open slopes, in a mixed turbidite/contourite system. This study provides insights into the influence of turbidity currents versus contour currents on the morphology, geometry and distribution of bedforms in a mixed turbidite–contourite system.     

Sharks caught in the KwaZulu-Natal bather protection programme,South Africa. 14. The smooth hammerhead shark Sphyrna zygaena (Linnaeus)

The current study provides long-term catch-rate, biological and feeding data for smooth hammerhead sharks, Sphyrna zygaena, caught in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal bather protection programme. In total, 2 512 S. zygaena were caught in net installations between 1978 and 2014, and 72 S. zygaena were caught on drumlines between 2007 and 2014. There was no significant log-linear year trend in the net catch rate over time (slope = 0.0054, t = 1.808, p = 0.07). However, there was a significant temporal increase in mean size of the captured sharks (slope = 0.0012, t = 3.502, p < 0.001). A quasi-Poisson generalised additive mixed model showed that increasing latitude, winter months, colder sea temperatures and the deployment of drumlines all had a significant positive effect on the catch rate of sharks in nets. The size frequency of the catch was unimodal, with significantly more females caught in the nets and more males on the drumlines. The majority (93.1%) of all sharks caught were immature and measured between 80 and 120 cm precaudal length. Teleosts and cephalopods dominated the sharks’ diet in terms of all dietary indices. The prey species consumed indicate that immature S. zygaena are feeding primarily within the pelagic zone of shallow coastal habitats.     

Snowpack disrupts relationship between young water fraction and isotope amplitude ratio; approximately one fifth of mountain streamflow less than one year old

Previous “fraction of young water” (F_yw) estimates based on relative annual isotopic amplitudes in precipitation (A_p) and streamflow (A_s) produced low F_yw values in mountain catchments, which is contrary to extensive research that reports rapid water transmission in mountains. This study investigated this discrepancy by testing the effect of snow accumulation on the model that underpins the F_yw method. A Monte-Carlo analysis of simulations for 20,000 randomly-generated catchment model configurations used 10 years of precipitation inputs for the Upper Elbow River catchment in the Rocky Mountains (Alberta, Canada) to model discharge with and without snowpack storage of winter precipitation. Neither direct nor modified precipitation input produced a 1:1 relationship between A_s/A_p and F_yw, undermining the applicability of the original F_yw method in mountain watersheds with large seasonal snow accumulation. With snowpack-modified input a given A_s/A_p ratio corresponds to a range of F_yw values, which can still provide semi-quantitative information. In the small (435 km²) Elbow River catchment a F_yw range of 7–23% supports previous findings of rapid transmission in mountain catchments. Further analysis showed that the improved discharge prediction (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.9) correlates with higher F_yw values and demonstrated that the interannual shifts in δ¹⁸O can be used to estimate of new water (<1 year) fraction in winter streamflow, and the estimate of 20% for the Elbow River further supports rapid transmission in mountain catchments.     

Launching of accretion disc winds along dynamo-generated magnetic fields

The problem of magnetic field generation and advection in accretion discs is considered, in the context of wind launching and angular momentum extraction. A dipole-symmetry solution of the dynamo equations is found, with force-free boundary conditions appropriate for matching to a wind solution. Consideration of the curved field geometry and diffusive nature of the disc enables the position of the sonic point to be calculated and related to the field inclination at the disc surface. A critical inclination of 20° to the horizontal results, for which the sonic point lies in the disc surface and there is no potential barrier to wind launching. Hence the wind mass-loss rate will only become excessive, leading to disc disruption, for large field bending. The compressional effect of the horizontal magnetic field enhances the wind mass flux.