A survey of census bureau population projection methods

Population projections methods of the U.S. Census Bureau draw upon several different traditions of forecasting: demographic accounting, judgmental, time series, deterministic, and explanatory. This paper reviews each of the forecasting traditions in population projections, describes the U.S. Census Bureau's current methods for national and state population projections, and proposes new hybrid approaches such as demographic-time series methods for national fertility projections and economic-demographic methods for state migration projections. Throughout the article, possible parallels with forecasting in other disciplines are noted.     

Statistical representation of generalized distribution data for float-sink coal-cleaning devices: Sand cones

An earlier paper by this writer presented a method for combining distribution data for float-sink coal-cleaning devices into a single, generalized distribution curve which is independent of the specific gravity of separation. A nonlinear exponential-type equation was used to represent each of the curves and to determine the corresponding generalized probable error. Performance data for five common coal-cleaning devices were analyzed using this method.In this paper the method is applied to another common coal-cleaning device — the sand cone. Numerical values are presented for the constants in the exponential-type generalized distribution equation and for the corresponding generalized probable error. Several different feed size-fractions are considered.     

Hormone loads exported by a tile‐drained agroecosystem receiving animal wastes

Little is known regarding hormone export from tile‐drained agricultural fields despite the widespread presence of tile drains in the Midwestern United States. By intensively measuring water flow rates and hormone concentrations in four subsurface tile drains and three receiving ditches at a working Midwest farm, hormone fluxes and loads from the tile‐drained fields were quantified. Before and during the 17‐month study period (January 2009 – May 2010), the associated farm fields received various animal waste applications (beef, dairy, poultry, sheep, and swine). Hormones monitored included the estrogens17β‐ and 17α‐estradiol, estrone, and estriol; the natural androgens testosterone, and androstenedione; and the synthetic androgens 17β‐ and 17α‐trenbolone, and trendione. Hormone loads measured in the ditches for three drainage areas during the entire 17‐month study period were in ranges of 16–58 mg/ha for total estrogens, 6.8–19 mg/ha for natural androgens, and 4.2–44 mg/ha for synthetic androgens. Because higher hormone concentrations generally occurred during discrete periods of increased flow, high flow rates often were associated with a disproportionately high hormone flux. For example, 80% of total estrogens and natural androgens exported into the ditches occurred during only 9–26% of the study period, coinciding with the most significant storm events. In addition, hormone fluxes were highest during storm events that occurred shortly after animal waste applications. Therefore, to effectively reduce hormone loads exported to downstream aquatic ecosystems in the absence of any application reduction, the short periods during which high‐flow events occur must be targeted. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda,northern Italy

Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.     

A multi-proxy lake-sediment record of middle through late Holocene hydroclimate change in southern British Columbia,Canada

Journal of Paleolimnology - Analysis of the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of sedimentary carbonates in Turquoise Lake (N50.83°, W121.69°, 807 m), southwestern British...     

Red Waters of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Myrionecta rubra</Emphasis> are Biogeochemical Hotspots for the Columbia River Estuary with Impacts on Primary/Secondary Productions and Nutrient Cycles

The localized impact of blooms of the mixotrophic ciliate Myrionecta rubra in the Columbia River estuary during 2007–2010 was evaluated with biogeochemical, light microscopy, physiological, and molecular data. M. rubra affected surrounding estuarine nutrient cycles, as indicated by high and low concentrations of organic nutrients and inorganic nitrogen, respectively, associated with red waters. M. rubra blooms also altered the energy transfer pattern in patches of the estuarine water that contain the ciliate by creating areas characterized by high primary production and elevated levels of fresh autochthonous particulate organic matter, therefore shifting the trophic status in emergent red water areas of the estuary from net heterotrophy towards autotrophy. The pelagic estuarine bacterial community structure was unaffected by M. rubra abundance, but red waters of the ciliate do offer a possible link between autotrophic and heterotrophic processes since they were associated with elevated dissolved organic matter and showed a tendency for enhanced microbial secondary production. Taken together, these findings suggest that M. rubra red waters are biogeochemical hotspots of the Columbia River estuary.     

Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE): dynamics and chemistry of the south Pacific tropical trade wind regime

The Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE) was a comprehensive airborne study of the chemistry and dynamics of the tropical trade wind regime (TWR) east of the island of Kiritibati (Christmas Island, 157º, 20?? W, 2º 52?? N). Christmas Island is located due south of Hawaii. Geographically it is in the northern hemisphere yet it is 6?C12º south of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) which places it in the southern hemisphere meteorologically. Christmas Island trade winds in August and September are from east south east at 3?C15 ms^?1. Clouds, if present, are fair weather cumulus located in the middle layer of the TWR which is frequently labeled the buffer layer (BuL). PASE provided clear support for the idea that small particles (80 nm) were subsiding into the tropical trade wind regime (TWR) where sulfur chemistry transformed them to larger particles. Sulfur chemistry promoted the growth of some of these particles until they were large enough to activate to cloud drops. This process, promoted by sulfur chemistry, can produce a cooling effect due to the increase in cloud droplet density and changes in cloud droplet size. These increases in particle size observed in PASE promote additional cooling due to direct scattering from the aerosol. These potential impacts on the radiation balance in the TWR are enhanced by the high solar irradiance and ocean albedo of the TWR. Finally because of the large area involved there is a large factional impact on earth??s radiation budget. The TWR region near Christmas Island appears to be similar to the TWR that persists in August and September, from southwest of the Galapagos to at least Christmas Island. Transport in the TWR between the Galapagos and Christmas involves very little precipitation which could have removed the aerosol thus explaining at least in part the high concentrations of CCN (??300 at 0.5% supersaturation) observed in PASE. As expected the chemistry of sulfur in the trade winds was found to be initiated by the emission of DMS into the convective boundary layer (BL, the lowest of three layers). However, the efficiency with which this DMS is converted to SO₂ has been brought into further question by this study. This unusual result has come about as result of our using two totally different approaches for addressing this long standing question. In the first approach, based on accepted kinetic rate constants and detailed steps for the oxidation of DMS reflecting detailed laboratory studies, a DMS to SO₂ conversion efficiency of 60?C73% was determined. This range of values lies well within the uncertainties of previous studies. However, using a completely different approach, involving a budget analysis, a conversion value of 100% was estimated. The latter value, to be consistent with all other sulfur studies, requires the existence of a completely independent sulfur source which would emit into the atmosphere at a source strength approximately half that measured for DMS under tropical Pacific conditions. At this time, however, there is no credible scientific observation that identifies what this source might be. Thus, the current study has opened for future scientific investigation the major question: is there yet another major tropical marine source of sulfur? Of equal importance, then, is the related question, is our global sulfur budget significantly in error due to the existence of an unknown marine source of sulfur? Pivotal to both questions may be gaining greater insight about the intermediate DMS oxidation species, DMSO, for which rather unusual measurements have been reported in previous marine sulfur studies. The 3 pptv bromine deficit observed in PASE must be lost over the lifetime of the aerosol which is a few days. This observation suggests that the primary BrO production rate is very small. However, considering the uncertainties in these observations and the possible importance of secondary production of bromine radicals through aerosol surface reactions, to completely rule out the importance of bromine chemistry under tropical conditions at this time cannot be justified. This point has been brought into focus from prior work that even at levels of 1 pptv, the effect of BrO oxidation on DMS can still be quite significant. Thus, as in the case of DMS conversion to SO₂, future studies will be needed. In the latter case there will need to be a specific focus on halogen chemistry. Such studies clearly must involve specific measurements of radical species such as BrO.     

The role of the Polochic Fault as part of the North American and Caribbean Plate boundary: Insights from the infill of the Lake Izabal Basin

The Lake Izabal Basin in Guatemala is a major pull-apart basin along the sinistral Polochic Fault, which is part of the North American and Caribbean plate boundary. The basin infill contains information about the tectonic and sedimentological processes that have imparted a significant control on its sedimentary section. The inception of the basin has been linked to the relative importance of the Polochic Fault in the tectonic history of the plate boundary; yet, its sedimentological record and its inception age have been poorly documented. This study integrates diverse datasets, including industry reports, well logs and reports, well cuttings, vintage seismic data, outcrop observations and geochronological data to constrain the initial infill and age of inception of the basin. The integrated data show that during the Oligocene–Miocene, a marine carbonate platform was established in the region which was later uplifted and eroded in the early Miocene. The fluvial–lacustrine deposits above this carbonate platform are part of the initial infill of the basin and are constrained with zircon weighted-mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 12.060 ± 0.008 from a volcanic tuff ~30 m above the unconformity. Sandstone, mudstone and coal dominate the interval from 12 to 4 Ma, with an increase in conglomerate correlating to the uplift of the Mico Mountains and San Gil Hill at 4 Ma. Fault switch activity between the Polochic and Motagua faults has been hypothesized to explain total offset along the Polochic Fault and the geologic and geodetic slip rates along the two faults. The 12 Ma age determined for the initial infill of the basin confirms this hypothesis. Consequently, our study confirms that at ~12 Ma the Polochic Fault served as the main fault of the plate boundary with inferred slip rates ranging from 13 to 21 mm/yr with a strong possibility that the Polochic Fault was, at some point between 15 Ma and 7 Ma, the only active fault of the plate boundary. The results of this study show that tectonic records preserved in sediments of strike-slip basins improve the understanding of the relative significance of individual faults and the implications with respect to strain partitioning throughout its tectonic history.     

Hurricane effects on seagrasses along Alabama's Gulf Coast

In November 2004, we evaluated the effect of Hurricane Ivan on seagrass meadows in Alabama by surveying all coastal locations known to support seagrass prior to Hurricane Ivan's Iandfall in September 2004. We found that 82% of the sites containing seagrass in 2002 still supported seagrass, and that, as in 2002, the most abundant species wasHalodule wrightii (shoalgrass). We also found more sites containingRuppia maritima (widgeongrass) than previously recorded. We confirmed the existence ofThalassia testudinum (turtlegrass) in Little Lagoon, Alabama, whose first record in the state had been noted in 2002. A resurvey of the western half of Alabama's coastal waters in October 2005 after Hurricane Katrina found no loss of seagrass, with all sites that supported seagrass in 2004 still containing seagrass in 2005. There was no major loss of Alabama's seagrass resources due to Hurricanes Ivan or Katrina, even though both category 3 hurricanes severely affected the northern Gulf Coast.