Validation of climate model output using Bayesian statistical methods

The growing interest in and emphasis on high spatial resolution estimates of future climate has demonstrated the need to apply regional climate models (RCMs) to that problem. As a consequence, the need for validation of these models, an assessment of how well an RCM reproduces a known climate, has also grown. Validation is often performed by comparing RCM output to gridded climate datasets and/or station data. The primary disadvantage of using gridded climate datasets is that the spatial resolution is almost always different and generally coarser than climate model output. We have used a Bayesian statistical model derived from observational data to validate RCM output. We used surface air temperature (SAT) data from 109 observational stations in California, all with records of approximately 50 years in length, and created a statistical model based on this data. The statistical model takes into account the elevation of the station, distance from coastline, and the NOAA climate region in which the station resides. Analysis indicates that the statistical model provides reliable estimates of the mean monthly SAT at any given station. In our method, the uncertainty in the estimates produced by the statistical model are directly determined by obtaining probability density functions for predicted SATs. This statistical model is then used to estimate average SATs corresponding to each of the climate model grid cells. These estimates are compared to the output of the RCM to assess how well the RCM matches the observed climate as defined by the statistical model. Overall, the match between the RCM output and the statistical model is good, with some deficiencies likely due in part to the representation of topography in the RCM.     

Solar Coronal Plasma in Doppler Measurements

Doppler tracking of an interplanetary spacecraft near solar conjunction is strongly affected by the plasma in the solar corona, the main competitive contribution in measurements of the gravitational deflection of light rays. With the simultaneous availability of carriers in X band and K_a band for interplanetary communications, the plasma contribution to the corona can be accurately eliminated and measured. If, as in the Cassini mission, three different observables are available, this can be done in two ways: one deals with the total plasma content in the electric approximation, even in the ionosphere and interplanetary space; another is limited to the corona, but has access to subtler effects, like the magnetic correction to the refractive index. This technique will allow important progress in the radio investigation of the solar corona.     

Seismic study of the Mesozoic carbonate basement around Mt. Somma–Vesuvius, Italy

Fifteen seismic reflection lines from AGIP surveys, in and around the Campanian Plain and Mt. Somma–Vesuvius (south Italy) have been interpreted. The attention has been focused to the horizon pertinent to the top of the Mesozoic carbonate sequence and the Quaternary faults dissecting it. As a matter of fact, both are very important elements for understanding the origin of the volcanic activity in the area, that often in the past, has been the topic of debates not supported by reliable data. In the study area, referring to the depth of the carbonate basement, comparison between the result achieved by the seismic prospecting and previous gravity studies has been made. It shows coherence in some areas but large discrepancy within others. Near the town of S. Anastasia, the gravity and seismic depth estimates differ as much as 1000 m or more. Furthermore, the seismic data show that the source of the greatest volcanic eruption in the area (the so-called ‘Campanian Ignimbrite') is probably not located in the Acerra depression, as suggested by other authors. A main NE–SW fault directed toward Vesuvius, considered as playing a primary role on volcanogenetic processes and previously recognised only offshore by marine seismic survey, has been now identified also inland using this new seismic information. The results presented here strengthen the hypothesis that Mt. Vesuvius is located at the crossing point of two regional Quaternary sets of fault heading NW–SE and NE–SW.     

Geologische Problematik und Strukturanalyse Nikaraguas

The basement of northern Nicaragua is still a great problem stratigraphically. Enclosed tuffits (mainly basic, partly also intermediate to acid) appear of importance for both petrology and sedimentology. Not in the least they are guide horizons for a more accurate mapping. The vast regional distribution, commonly proved yet, suggests that the composition of the basement is considerably uniform and it seems that they do not belong to different periods and formations. Structurally the region is exceedingly complicated. The folding direction as regards plication and overthrusts is mainly to the North, but partly also to the East. Probably the “Totogalpa formation” (fanglomerates, conglomerates and sandstones, mainly reddish) which follows disconformably over the basement, already indicated, belongs to the sequence of tertiary tuffites, agglomerates, lavas etc. as they conformably form a formation of uniform composition. The relation of basement to lower Cretaceous (marine Albian; “Metapan”), which follows immediately to the south, is less clear. The lower Cretacious shows intensive and complicated folding at Siuna and it appears almost unmetamorphosed (? basement in a wider sense). The marine sediments (upper Cretacious - Miocene) of South Nicaragua are orogenetically only slightly efected (folding direction to E-N). To the North follows a thick serie of Tertiary and Quarternary volcanites (initially mainly submarinal, later on continental). Together with the NW/SE lineaments (Nicaragua depression, lines of volcanoes, coast line in the SW etc.) also NS directed ones clearly appear (coastline in the East). This direction can be found e. g. in the “granite ridge of Susucayan” and the accompanying faults in the vicinity. These latter structures may have taken an active part in the development of the flexured border of the Nicaraguan depression NW of Managua.     

Über die Fazies des Hunsrückschiefers

Zusammenfassung Einleitend wird auf die vielfältige Problematik des Hunsrückschiefers hingewiesen. Hinsichtlich der Petro-Fazies ergibt sich ein Vorwalten der feinsandigen Komponente mit einem Feldspaltgehalt von durchschnittlich 10–13%. Die. Ergebnisse spektroskopischer und autoradiographischer Untersuchungen werden mitgeteilt. Die Mächtigkeit scheint in der SE-Eifel am größten zu sein und zum SE-Rand des Schiefergebirges hin ständig abzunehmen. Die Bio-Fazies wird vor allem hinsichtlich der sehr häufigen Fress-Bauten und Kriechspuren von Würmern behandelt, welche ein reiches Bodenleben im Hunsrückschiefer-Meer beweisen. Die Ansicht, daß der Hunsrückschiefer hauptsächlich aus Sedimenten eines Flach- und Wattenmeeres besteht, wurde bestätigt.     

Turnover of Eastern Caribbean deep water from 14C measurements

A¹⁴C balance for the Eastern Caribbean deep water indicates the average inflow of Atlantic water into the basin to be 2.3 × 10⁵ m³/sec (±30%), or about 2–4 times the values estimated previously. The balance uses a model representation of the deep-water turnover, and is based on¹⁴C concentrations at a station in the Venezuelan Basin which average Δ¹⁴C= 89‰ below 800 m depth with a total range of only 9‰, as well as on a¹⁴C concentration of the Atlantic inflow of Δ¹⁴C= ?71%. as obtained from measurements outside the Antilles Arch. The turnover time of the basin water below 2500 m depth is 55 years, which corresponds to an average upwelling velocity at this depth of about 35 m/year. With such upwelling, the temperature profile below 1800 m (the depth of the sill determining the inflow of new water) requires a vertical eddy diffusivity of about 5 cm²/sec. The oxygen consumption, and silica and CO₂ regeneration, rates below 2500 m depth are obtained as ?0.18, + 0.08, and + 0.2 μmole kg^?1 yr^?1, respectively. The CO₂ regeneration has but a negligible effect on the¹⁴C balance.     

Depth profiles of bacterioplankton assemblages and their activities in the Ross Sea

The identification of bacterial community structure has led, since the beginning of the 1990s, to the idea that bacterioplankton populations are stratified in the water column and that diverse lineages with mostly unknown phenotypes dominate marine microbial communities. The diversity of depth-related assemblages is also reflected in their patterns of activities, as bacteria affiliated to different groups can express different activities in a given ecosystem. We analysed bacterial assemblages (DGGE fingerprinting) and their activities (prokaryotic carbon production, protease, phosphatase, chitinase, beta-glucosidase and lipase activities) in two areas in the Ross Sea, differing mainly in their productivity regime: two stations are located in the Terra Nova Bay polynya area (highly productive during summer) and two close to Cape Adare (low phytoplankton biomass and activity). At every station a pronounced stratification of bacterial assemblages was identified, highlighting epipelagic communities differing substantially from the mesopelagic and the bathypelagic communities. Multivariate analysis suggested that pressure and indirectly light-affected variables (i.e. oxygen and fluorescence) had a great effect on the bacterial communities outcompeting the possible influences of temperature and dissolved organic carbon concentration. Generally activities decreased with depth even though a signal of the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) at one of the northern stations corresponded to an increase in some of the degradative activities, generating some ‘hot spots’ in the profile. We also found that similar assemblages express similar metabolic requirements reflected in analogous patterns of activity (similar degradative potential and leucine uptake rate). Furthermore, the presence of eukaryotic chloroplasts’ 16S rDNA in deep samples highlighted how in some cases the dense surface-water formation (in this case High Salinity Shelf Water—HSSW) and downwelling can affect, at least for some phylotypes, the bacterial (16S rDNA based) community structure of the dark ocean.     

Pliocene extensional tectonics in the Eastern Central Patagonian Cordillera: geochronological constraints and new field evidence

Recent field work and review of radiometric data obtained from Neogene lavas and plutonic rocks exposed in the Eastern Central Patagonian Cordillera (46–48ºS), which overlie subducted segments of the South Chile Ridge, suggest important Late Miocene to Pleistocene morphological changes in relation to base level variations and/or tectonic events. We present new field observations from a region south of Lago General Carrera‐Buenos Aires, between the main Cordillera and the Meseta del Lago Buenos Aires, demonstrating that normal faulting controlled valley incisions and occurred during lava emplacement at 5–4 Ma and after 3 Ma. We also show that the 12 Ma basaltic flows of the Meseta del Lago Buenos Aires (∼2000 m a.s.l.) have been subjected to deep incision, with younger lavas dated at 1.2 Ma partially filling the valleys. These incisions are thought to reflect progressive eastward tilting of the entire meseta. Our new observations, together with additional features from Central Patagonia, strongly suggest that tectonic events led to a regional widespread morphological change after 5 Ma. The coincidence in time and space between the subduction of segments of the South Chile Ridge at 6 and 3 Ma causing opening of a slab window, and strong base level variations in the studied area, suggests a cause‐and‐effect relationship. In Central Patagonia, compressional tectonics ended well before extensional events reported here. Causes of uplift and further extension are probably completely disconnected. The uplift is purely tectonic in origin and occurred prior to the subduction of the South Chile Ridge. Extension should be a consequence of this subduction.