Ground motion spatial correlation fitting methods and estimation uncertainty

Ground shaking intensity varies spatially in earthquakes, and many studies have estimated correlations of intensity from past earthquake data. This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty in the estimation of correlations and true variability in correlations from earthquake to earthquake. A procedure for evaluating estimation uncertainty is proposed and used to evaluate several methods that have been used in past studies to estimate correlations. The results indicate that a weighted least squares algorithm is most effective in estimating spatial correlation models and that earthquakes with at least 100 recordings are needed to produce informative earthquake-specific estimates of spatial correlations. The proposed procedure is also used to distinguish between estimation uncertainty and the true variability in model parameters that exist in a given data set. The estimation uncertainty is seen to vary between well-recorded and poorly recorded earthquakes, whereas the true variability is more stable.     

Archaeological stone of Easter Island

With the scarcity of other resources, stone assumed great importance in the culture of Easter Island. The volcanic rocks display a compositional continuum paralleled by changes in physical characteristics. The most abundant rock type, porphyritic hawaiite, was the least useful as it is poorly jointed and difficult to work. Mugearites and benmoreites usually have a flaggy structure and were used as dressed stone in the early ahu, in the houses of Orongo and in stone implements. Rhyolitic obsidian was used for scrapers, knives, and a variety of weapons, especially the tanged mataa. Statue carving reached its zenith on Easter Island largely because of the availability of a suitable rock type, the Rano Raraku tuff. The tuff was not erupted from the present Rano Raraku crater but from another vent southeast of the surviving portion of the cone. Red scoria from Puna Pau was quarried for the topknots. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Outflows at the Edges of an Active Region in a Coronal Hole: A Signature of Active Region Expansion?

Outflows of plasma at the edges of active regions surrounded by quiet Sun are now a common observation with the Hinode satellite. While there is observational evidence to suggest that the outflows are originating in the magnetic field surrounding the active regions, there is no conclusive evidence that reveals how they are driven. Motivated by observations of outflows at the periphery of a mature active region embedded in a coronal hole, we have used a three-dimensional simulation to emulate the active region’s development in order to investigate the origin and driver of these outflows. We find that outflows are accelerated from a site in the coronal hole magnetic field immediately surrounding the active region and are channelled along the coronal hole field as they rise through the atmosphere. The plasma is accelerated simply as a result of the active region expanding horizontally as it develops. Many of the characteristics of the outflows generated in the simulation are consistent with those of observed outflows: velocities up to 45 km s⁻¹, properties akin to the coronal hole, proximity to the active region’s draining loops, expansion with height, and projection over monopolar photospheric magnetic concentrations. Although the horizontal expansion occurs as a consequence of the active region’s development in the simulation, expansion is also a general feature of established active regions. Hence, it is entirely possible and plausible that the expansion acceleration mechanism displayed in the simulation is occurring in active regions on the Sun and, in addition to reconnection, is driving the outflows observed at their edges.     

A high magnitude storm and flood in a hyperarid catchment,Nahal Zin,Negev Desert,Israel

In October 1991 a high magnitude rainstorm flood, estimated return period 40 years, occurred in Nahal Zin, a 1400 km² catchment in the hyperarid Negev Desert. The meso-scale structure of the storm was a curved squall line that developed from a thunderstorm in accordance with the topography of the catchment divide, by which it was strongly affected. Tropical moisture reached the area via the subtropical jet stream, in conjunction with a lower level northward intrusion of the Red Sea trough (RST-N) into the Mediterranean Sea. Rainfall, as measured at the few and sparse gauging stations, was much too small to account for the resulting large flood. Peak flow and other hydraulic characteristics of the flood were indirectly reconstructed. The techniques of palaeoflood hydrology used were based on sedimentological evidence of fine-grained flood sediments deposited in back-flooded tributaries, as well as on other stage indicators. The HEC-2 procedure was employed to determine water surface profiles. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the event were studied through a combination of rainstorm analysis, remote sensing, hydrological and sedimentological data; they jointly explain the magnitude and timing of tributary contributions producing the integrated flood in the main channel. The flood as reconstructed reveals a three-peak hydrograph: two peaks were generated by the same storm but had different floodwave arrival times in the main channel; the third resulted from a local rainstorm which occurred on the following day and covered only one tributary. The curved structure of the storm and its dynamics in relation to catchment orientation resulted in storm move- ment in tandem with the floodwave. The synchronous contribution from all main tributaries preserved evidence of the floodwave both in stage and volume by replacing the transmission losses in the sections with thick alluvium. Other high magnitude floods on record for the large Negev Desert catchments are caused by a cold upper air incursion associated with the RST-N. Most of them occur in the autumn and are caused by storms with high-intensity rainfall. This is in stark contrast with the flooding behaviour of the semi-arid zone further north, which is linked primarily to the core of the Mediterranean winter. The complexities involved in the generation of a large desert flood, as revealed by this study, illustrate the fallacy of applying routine hydrological modelling to such events, and underline the need to study the processes involved in adequate detail. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全球热液场的分布

岩浆平衡假设认为岩浆供给的变化是大尺度上控制大洋扩张脊热液场分布模式主要因素。这个理论较为简单,但是一些因素的存在使得验证这个假设较为复杂,如热通量测量的匮乏、岩浆作用与热液作用在时间上的延迟、渗透率的作用、非岩浆热源以及热液场勘探的不确定性。在此,为了验证这个理论,我们总结目前全球活动热液场分布的认识。目前,已发现的活动热液场大约有280个,约为预计数量（1000）的四分之一。到目前为止,大约占全球洋脊20％的部分已经开展了以寻求活动热液场为目的的勘探活动,但是其中仅一半积累了足够多的数据进行统计分析处理。根据11个总长度为6140km的洋脊段数据,我们发现在热液场频率或者热液羽状流发生率与岩浆平衡之间存在强烈的线性关系,其中岩浆平衡是通过洋壳的厚度推算得出。对于扩张速率在10—150mm／yr之间的洋脊,这种线性关系强烈支持岩浆平衡假设。次级的控制因素包括渗透率和深大断裂所提供的额外热量,其中渗透率的影响随着扩张速率的减小而增强,而深大断裂所提供的热量则可以通过以下几种方式获得：上地幔的直接冷却,辉长岩侵入体的冷却以及下覆超镁铁质岩的蛇纹岩化作用。初步的观测以及理论表明在受热点影响的洋脊热液活动相当贫乏,然而数据缺乏妨碍了认识的获得。虽然我们的全部结论来自于详细研究热液场的频率,特别是在慢速扩张洋脊,但也与全球海洋^3He（一种可靠的岩浆指示剂）的分布一致。     

Temporal and spatial variability of the bottom nepheloid layer over a deep-sea fan

Analysis of 121 in-situ nephelometer profiles recorded in the waters above Nitinat Deep-Sea Fan during three cruises between 1971 and 1974 reveals a substantial degree of correlation between fan topography and the vertical distribution of suspended particulate matter within 150 m of the sea floor. Profiles recorded above different topographic provinces may be generalized into two structural classes which have retained their characteristic features throughout the 4-year observation period: the levee type, in which a thin bottom nepheloid layer consists of a single steep scattering gradient sharply capped by the overlying clearer water; and the fan-valley type, in which a bottom nepheloid layer of variable thickness and prominent internal layering dissipates only gradually into the overlying clearer water. Although the source of the particles which form the bottom nepheloid layer has not yet been definitely identified, the multi-year stability of scattering intensity, thickness, and internal structure imply that it is maintained by some combination of continually operative processes, rather than by infusions of material from episodic events such as turbidity currents.     

Scientific detector workshop 2022 on-sky performance verification of near-infrared e−APD technology for wavefront sensing and demonstration of e−APD pixel performance to improve the sensitivity of large science focal planes

Near-infrared adaptive optics as well as fringe tracking for coherent beam combination in optical interferometry require the development of high-speed sensors. Because of the high speed, a large analog bandwidth is required. The short exposure times result in small signal levels which require noiseless detection. Both requirements cannot be met by state-of-the-art conventional CMOS technology of near-infrared arrays as has been attempted previously. A total of five near-infrared SAPHIRA 320 × 256 pixel HgCdTe e⁻APD arrays have been deployed in the wavefront sensors and in the fringe tracker of the VLTI instrument GRAVITY. The current limiting magnitude for coherent exposures with GRAVITY is m_k = 19, which is made possible with ADP technology. New avalanche photo-diode array (APD) developments since GRAVITY include the extension of the spectral sensitivity to the wavelength range from 0.8 to 2.5 μm. After GRAVITY a larger format array with 512 × 512 pixels has been developed for both AO applications at the ELT and for long integration times. Since dark currents of <10⁻³ e⁻/s have been demonstrated with 1Kx1K e⁻APD arrays and 2Kx2K e⁻APD arrays have already been developed, the possibilities and adaptations of e⁻APD technology to provide noiseless large-format science-grade arrays for long integration times are also discussed.