Monitoring surface changes in discontinuous permafrost terrain using small baseline SAR interferometry,object-based classification,and geological features: a case study from Mayo,Yukon Territory,Canada

Permafrost-induced deformation of ground features is threating infrastructure in northern communities. An understanding of permafrost distribution is therefore critical for sustainable adaptation planning and infrastructure maintenance. Considering the large area underlain by permafrost in the Yukon Territory, there is a need for baseline information to characterize the permafrost in this region. In this study, the Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) technique was used to identify areas of ground movement likely caused by changes in permafrost. The DInSAR technique was applied to a series of repeat-pass C-band RADARSAT-2 observations collected in 2015 over the Village of Mayo, in central Yukon Territory, Canada. The conventional DInSAR technique demonstrated that ground deformation could be detected in this area, but the resulting deformation maps contained errors due to a loss of coherence from changes in vegetation and atmospheric phase delay. To address these limitations, the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) InSAR technique was applied to reduce phase error, thus improving the deformation maps. To understand the relationship between the deformation maps and land cover types, an object-based Random Forest classification was developed to classify the study area into different land cover types. Integration of the InSAR results and the classification map revealed that the built-up class (e.g., airport) was affected by subsidence on the order of ?2 to ?4 cm. The spatial extent of the surface displacement map obtained using the SBAS InSAR technique was then correlated with the surficial geology map. This revealed that much of the main infrastructure in the Village of Mayo is underlain by interbedded glaciofluvial and glaciolacustrine sediments, the latter of which caused the most damage to human made structures. This study provides a method for permafrost monitoring that builds upon the synergistic use of the SBAS InSAR technique, object-based image analysis, and surficial geology data.     

Identification of homogenous regions in Gorganrood basin (Iran) for the purpose of regionalization

Estimation of flood in basins with poor condition of hydrometric stations as in quantity and quality is a dominant problem around the world, mainly in developing country where lack of funds and human resources cause more limitation in number of gauging stations. One of the areas that experience frequent floods and also suffer from small number of stations in Iran is Gorganrood basin. So there is a great need for the estimation and prediction of runoff in this area to prevent any future floods. Due to insufficient station in this area, direct prediction of flood is not applicable. Regional flood frequency analysis is a practical and widely used solution for these situations, which involves the identification of homogenous regions. Gorganrood region was hydrologically homogenized according to the extracted parameters that influence the floods. One of these parameters was Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) driven from MODIS images. Curvature is another parameter that relates to topographic attributes. From factor analysis, the most appropriate variables were selected. According to these parameters (NDVI, curvature, area, slope…), the regions were classified into homogenous regions. For the purpose of homogenization, hierarchical (wards) clustering, fuzzy clustering and Kohonen method were applied. L-moment technique was used for the investigation of the results. The heterogeneity measure for one of the groups (Group 1) was more than two; therefore some modifications were applied. The region was grouped into two homogenous subregions. All of the clustering methods showed same results. The models showed that class 4 of NDVI is influential on flood in some return periods. The resulted models can be applied in future studies in different aspects of practical hydrology.     

Site selection for managed aquifer recharge using fuzzy rules: integrating geographical information system (GIS) tools and multi-criteria decision making

One of the most important water-resources management strategies for arid lands is managed aquifer recharge (MAR). In establishing a MAR scheme, site selection is the prime prerequisite that can be assisted by geographic information system (GIS) tools. One of the most important uncertainties in the site-selection process using GIS is finite ranges or intervals resulting from data classification. In order to reduce these uncertainties, a novel method has been developed involving the integration of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), GIS, and a fuzzy inference system (FIS). The Shemil-Ashkara plain in the Hormozgan Province of Iran was selected as the case study; slope, geology, groundwater depth, potential for runoff, land use, and groundwater electrical conductivity have been considered as site-selection factors. By defining fuzzy membership functions for the input layers and the output layer, and by constructing fuzzy rules, a FIS has been developed. Comparison of the results produced by the proposed method and the traditional simple additive weighted (SAW) method shows that the proposed method yields more precise results. In conclusion, fuzzy-set theory can be an effective method to overcome associated uncertainties in classification of geographic information data.     

Evaluation of rainfall spatial correlation effect on rainfall-runoff modeling uncertainty,considering 2-copula

Lack of accuracy of rainfall-runoff simulation (RRS) remains critical for some applications. Among various sources of uncertainty, precipitation plays a particular role. Rainfall rates as the main input data of RRS are of the first factors controlling the accuracy. In addition to the depth, spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall impact the flood discharge. Most of the previous studies on RRS uncertainty have ignored rainfall spatial distribution, where in large catchments, it is necessary to be modeled explicitly. Karoon III is one most important basin of the Iran because of the Karoon III dam in the outlet. In the present work, effect of spatial correlation of rainfall on HEC-HMS (SMA) continuous RRS uncertainty is evaluated using 2variate copula (2copula). Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach was used to consider the rainfall spatial dependence. To reduce the computational expense, sampling efficiency and convergence for MCS, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used. Copula functions consider wide range of marginal probability distribution functions (PDFs), eliminating limits of regular join PDFs. For this aim, two scenarios were investigated. In the first scenario, sub-basin rainfall was considered independent, and in the second scenario, 2copula was adopted to model spatial correlation of rainfall. Dimensionless rainfall depths were calculated for each sub-basin, and the PDFs were determined. The generated random dimensionless rainfalls were reweighted and multiplied by watershed’s mean rainfall value. Stochastic Climate Library was used to generate continuous daily rainfalls. Sampling from dimensionless rainfalls using LHS algorithm, 100 runs of calibrated model-simulated 100 flows for each day following MCS, and 80 % certainty bound was calculated. Results showed that considering dependence decreased 18 % of the maximum uncertainty bound width, so the methodology could be recommended for decreasing predicted runoff error.     

Precipitation forecasting using classification and regression trees (CART) model: a comparative study of different approaches

Interest in semiarid climate forecasting has prominently grown due to risks associated with above average levels of precipitation amount. Longer-lead forecasts in semiarid watersheds are difficult to make due to short-term extremes and data scarcity. The current research is a new application of classification and regression trees (CART) model, which is rule-based algorithm, for prediction of the precipitation over a highly complex semiarid climate system using climate signals. We also aimed to compare the accuracy of the CART model with two most commonly applied models including time series modeling (ARIMA), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for prediction of the precipitation. Various combinations of large-scale climate signals were considered as inputs. The results indicated that the CART model had a better results (with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE?>?0.75) compared to the ANFIS and ARIMA in forecasting precipitation. Also, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS method can predict the precipitation values more accurately than the time series model based on various performance criteria. Further, fall forecasts ranked “very good” for the CART method, while the ANFIS and the time series model approximately indicated “satisfactory” and “unsatisfactory” performances for all stations, respectively. The forecasts from the CART approach can be helpful and critical for decision makers when precipitation forecast heralds a prolonged drought or flash flood.     

Comparison of machine learning methods for copper ore grade estimation

In this study, machine learning methods such as neural networks, random forests, and Gaussian processes are applied to the estimation of copper grade in a mineral deposit. The performance of these methods is compared to geostatistical techniques, such as ordinary kriging and indicator kriging. To ensure that these comparisons are realistic and relevant, the predictive accuracy is estimated on test instances located in drill holes that are different from the training data. The results of an extensive empirical study in the Sarcheshmeh porphyry copper deposit in Southeastern Iran illustrate that specially designed Gaussian processes with a symmetric standardization of the spatial location inputs and an anisotropic kernel yield the most accurate predictions. Furthermore, significant improvements are obtained when, besides location, information on the rock type is included in the set of predictor variables. This observation highlights the importance of carrying out detailed studies of the geological composition of the deposit to obtain more accurate ore grade predictions.     

CAD-DRASTIC: chloride application density combined with DRASTIC for assessing groundwater vulnerability to road salt application

Road salt is pervasively used throughout Canada and in other cold regions during winter. For cities relying exclusively on groundwater, it is important to plan and minimize the application of salt accordingly to mitigate the adverse effects of high chloride concentrations in water supply aquifers. The use of geospatial data (road network, land use, Quaternary and bedrock geology, average annual recharge, water-table depth, soil distribution, topography) in the DRASTIC methodology provides an efficient way of distinguishing salt-vulnerable areas associated with groundwater supply wells, to aid in the implementation of appropriate management practices for road salt application in urban areas. This research presents a GIS-based methodology to accomplish a vulnerability analysis for 12 municipal water supply wells within the City of Guelph, Ontario, Canada. The chloride application density (CAD) value at each supply well is calculated and related to the measured groundwater chloride concentrations and further combined with soil media and aquifer vadose- and saturated-zone properties used in DRASTIC. This combined approach, CAD-DRASTIC, is more accurate than existing groundwater vulnerability mapping methods and can be used by municipalities and other water managers to further improve groundwater protection related to road salt application.     

Nonlinear transformation of unit hydrograph

Unit hydrograph (UH) and its numerous derivatives have been popular for estimation of flood hydrographs. Two major assumptions still overshadow UH applications. One is the linearity and the other is time invariance. In theory, only peak discharge of an equilibrium hydrograph follows linear proportionality to excess rainfall intensity. In trying to relax the linearity constraint, this paper aims to propose a nonlinear way of transforming a given UH to other general hydrographs. The transformation or mapping technique relies on a simple rainfall ratio raised to a power less than unity. The case of nonlinear transformation is illustrated for a number of watershed geometries with either known kinematic wave analytic solutions or observed data. The nonlinear UH approach also relaxes the assumption of constant time base of the UH. The proposed nonlinear UH transformation may thus be viewed as a major step in closing the gap between physically based and traditional UH-based surface runoff simulation approaches.