High-resolution historical records from Pettaquamscutt River basin sediments: 1. Pb and varve chronologies validate record of Cs released by the Chernobyl accident

Cesium-137 derived from the explosion of the Chernobyl reactor in 1986 was preserved in anoxic sediments from a coastal environment in southern Rhode Island. Although the radioactive plume was detected in surface air samples at several locations in the United States, this is the first known record of a Chernobyl ¹³⁷Cs peak in sediments from North America. The inventory of Chernobyl ¹³⁷Cs that was preserved in the Pettaquamscutt River is small compared to European counterparts and should only be detectable for the next 15-20 yr. However, the presence of two ¹³⁷Cs peaks (1963 and 1987) identifies a well-dated segment of the sediment column that could be exploited in understanding the decomposition and preservation of terrestrial and aquatic organic matter. Different methods for calculating the ²¹⁰Pb chronology were also evaluated in this study and checked against independent varve counting. The end result is a detailed chronology of a site well suited for reconstruction of historical records of environmental change.     

Severe soil erosion during a 3‐day exceptional rainfall event: combining modelling and field data for a fallow cereal field

Exceptional rainfall events cause significant losses of soil, although few studies have addressed the validation of model predictions at field scale during severe erosive episodes. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of the enhanced Soil Erosion and Redistribution Tool (SERT‐2014) model for mapping and quantifying soil erosion during the exceptional rainfall event (~235 mm) that affected the Central Spanish Pyrenees in October 2012. The capacity of the simulation model is evaluated in a fallow cereal field (1.9 ha) at a high spatial scale (1 × 1 m). Validation was performed with field‐quantified rates of soil loss in the rills and ephemeral gullies and also with a detailed map of soil redistribution. The SERT‐2014 model was run for the six rainfall sub‐events that made up the exceptional event, simulating the different hydrological responses of soils with maximum runoff depths ranging between 40 and 1017 mm. Predicted average and maximum soil erosion was 11 and 117 Mg ha^?1 event^?1, respectively. Total soil loss and sediment yield to the La Reina gully amounted to 16.3 and 9.0 Mg event^?1. These rates are in agreement with field estimations of soil loss of 20.0 Mg event^?1. Most soil loss (86%) occurred during the first sub‐event. Although soil accumulation was overestimated in the first sub‐event because of the large amount of detached soil, the enhanced SERT‐2014 model successfully predicted the different spatial patterns and values of soil redistribution for each sub‐event. Further research should focus on stream transport capacity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Slab–mantle flow interaction: influence on subduction dynamics and duration

We investigate the influence of mantle flow relative to the lithosphere on subduction dynamics. We use 2D thermo‐mechanical models assuming incompressible non‐Newtonian fluid rheology. Different mantle flow velocities consistent with absolute plate motion models are tested, as well as both directions of flow, either sustaining or opposing slab dip. The effects of different inflow/outflow velocity profiles, slab strengths and upper–lower mantle viscosity contrasts are also evaluated. Slab dip deviations between models with opposite mantle flow directions range from 37° for relatively strong slabs (η_max = 10²⁵ Pa s) to 50° for weaker slabs (η_max = 10²⁴ Pa s), accounting for a significant amount of natural slab dip variability. For imposed mantle flow supporting the slab, the initial stage of slab steepening is followed by a stage of continuous slab dip decrease. This slab shallowing eventually leads to mantle wedge closure, subduction cessation and slab break‐off, possibly driving subduction flips.     

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.     

Thresholds of intrabed flow and other interactions of turbidity currents with soft muddy substrates

Controlled laboratory experiments reveal that the lower part of turbidity currents has the ability to enter fluid mud substrates, if the bed shear stress is higher than the yield stress of the fluid mud and the density of the turbidity current is higher than the density of the substrate. Upon entering the substrate, the turbidity current either induces mixing between flow‐derived sediment and substrate sediment, or it forms a stable horizontal flow front inside the fluid mud. Such ‘intrabed’ flow is surrounded by plastically deformed mud; otherwise it resembles the front of a ‘bottom‐hugging’ turbidity current. The ‘suprabed’ portion of the turbidity current, i.e. the upper part of the flow that does not enter the substrate, is typically separated from the intrabed flow by a long horizontal layer of mud which originates from the mud that is swept over the top of the intrabed flow and then incorporated into the flow. The intrabed flow and the mixing mechanism are specific types of interaction between turbidity currents and muddy substrates that are part of a larger group of interactions, which also include bypass, deposition, erosion and soft sediment deformation. A classification scheme for these types of interactions is proposed, based on an excess bed shear stress parameter, which includes the difference in the bed shear stress imposed by the flow and the yield stress of the substrate and an excess density parameter, which relies on the density difference between the flow and the substrate. Based on this classification scheme, as well as on the sedimentological properties of the laboratory deposits, an existing facies model for intrabed turbidites is extended to the other types of interaction involving soft muddy substrates. The physical threshold of flow‐substrate mixing versus stable intrabed flow is defined using the gradient Richardson number, and this method is validated successfully with the laboratory data. The gradient Richardson number is also used to verify that stable intrabed flow is possible in natural turbidity currents, and to determine under which conditions intrabed flow is likely to be unstable. It appears that intrabed flow is likely only in natural turbidity currents with flow velocities well below ca 3·5 m s^?1, although a wider range of flows is capable of entering fluid muds. Below this threshold velocity, intrabed flow is stable only at high‐density gradients and low‐velocity gradients across the upper boundary of the turbidity current. Finally, the gradient Richardson number is used as a scaling parameter to set the flow velocity limits of a natural turbidity current that formed an inferred intrabed turbidite in the deep‐marine Aberystwyth Grits Group, West Wales, United Kingdom.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.