Quasi-biennial and quasi-triennial oscillations in geomagnetic activity indices

Data for geomagnetic activity index aa for 1868–1994 were subjected to spectral analysis for 12 intervals each of 11 consecutive years. In each interval, QBO and QTO (quasi-biennial and quasi-triennial oscillations) were observed at ∼ 2.00, 2.15, 2.40, 2.70 y and ∼ 3.20, 3.40 y, but not all in all intervals. These fluctuations are absent near (2–3 y before and after) the sunspot minima and are present only as 2 or 3 peaks in aa indices, one near or before the sunspot maximum and the other (one or two, generally the larger ones) in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle. Comparison with the solar wind (1965 onwards) showed a fairly good match, indicating that the aa variations were mostly due to similar variations in the solar wind, which must have their origin in solar physical processes. A few aa variations did not match with solar wind. When compared with terrestrial phenomena, no match was found with stratospheric low-latitude zonal wind QBO; but some QTO in aa matched QTO in ENSO (El Nino/ Southern Oscillation). This may or may not be a chance coincidence and needs further exploration.     

Latitude and Altitude Dependence of the Interannual Variability and Trends of Atmospheric Temperatures

—The 4-season (12-month) running means of temperatures at five atmospheric levels (surface, 850–300 mb, 300–100 mb, 100–50 mb, 100–30 mb) and seven climatic zones (60°N–90°N, 30°N–60°N, 10°N–30°N, 10°N–10°S, 10°S–30°S, 30°S–60°S, 60°S–90°S) showed QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation), QTO (Quasi-triennial Oscillation) and larger periodicities. For stratosphere and tropopause, the temperature variations near the equator and North Pole somewhat resembled the 50mb low latitude zonal winds, mainly due to prominent QBO. For troposphere and surface, the temperature variations, especially those near the equator, resemble those of eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, mainly due to prominent QTO. In general, the temperature trends in the last 35 years show stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming. But the trends are not monotonic. For example, the surface trends were downward during 1960–70, upward during 1970–82, downward during 1982–85 and upward thereafter. Models of green-house warming should take these non-uniformities into account.     

Spectral characteristics of the annual rainfall series for Northeast Brazil

The rainfall series for Fortaleza (Ceará) is compared with similar series for several other locations in Northeast Brazil. It is shown that the correlations are high for distances up to about 600 km from Fortaleza. The Fortaleza series shows prominent periodicities at T = 2.1, 10.1, 12.9, 25.1, and 61.0 years, all significant at a 3 a priori level. Amongst these, T = 12.9 and 25.1 years are significant at a 4 a priori level. A master Curve (for 1912–1978 only), obtained by averaging rainfall data for 93 stations having good correlations with Fortaleza, shows very prominent periodicities at T = 5.6, 12.3 and 47.3 years, significant at a 3 a priori level. T = 12.3 is significant at a 4 a priori level. Predictions from both the Fortaleza series (1849–1976) and the Master Curve (1912–1978) indicated droughts during 1979–1983. This prediction seems to have come true. In the future, droughts during 1992–1994 and 2002–2006 are indicated.     

Effects of linear trend and mean value on maximum entropy spectral analysis

Using artificial samples, it is shown that, even for the method of maximum entropy spectral analysis (mesa) evolved by Burg, a presence of a linear trend gives distortions (frequency shifts) in the low frequency (high periodicity) region and hence, it is advisable to eliminate linear trends before attempting spectral analysis. The effect of the presence of a non-zero mean is not very definite; but, very large mean values seem to reduce the sharpness of the peaks. The implications of these findings for the results by Jin and Thomas for some geomagnetic parameters are discussed.     

Power spectrum analysis of geomagnetic indices

Using the method of maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) by Burg and the least-squares linear prediction (lslp) (also calledFABNE) by Barrodale and Erickson, the spectra of geomagnetic indices Ap, AN, AS, AE, AU, AL, Dst and cosmic ray neutron intensity at Deep River are obtained for 1965 and 1969 from daily means and for longer periods from monthly means. A large number of peaks of periodicities from 2 days to several years is obtained, many of which are shown by all the indices. Some of these are probably harmonics of the 27 days solar rotation period and the 20–22 years double sunspot cycle period. Comparison is made with results of earlier workers who reported fewer peaks.     

Prediction possibilities of Arosa total ozone

Using the periodicities obtained by a Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) of the Arosa total ozone data (CC) series for 1932–1971, the values predicted for 1972 onwards were compared with the observed values of the (AD) series. A change of level was noticed, with the observed (AD) values lower by about 7 D.U. Also, the matching was poor in 1980, 1981, 1982. In the monthly values, the most prominent periodicity was the annual wave, comprising some 80% variance. In the 12 month running averages, the annual wave was eliminated and the most prominent periodicity wasT=3.7 years, encompassing roundly 20% variance. This and other periodicities atT=4.7, 5.4, 6.2, 10 and 16 years were all statistically significant at a 3.5a priori i.e., 2a posteriori level. However, the predictions from these were unsatisfactory, probably because some of these periodicities may betransient i.e., changing amplitudes and/or phases with time. Thus, no meaningful prediction seem possible for Arosa total ozone.     

International Association of Geoanalysts'Protocol for the Certification of Geological and Environmental Reference Materials

This protocol has been developed by the International Association of Geoanalysts to demonstrate procedures for the certification of geological and environmental reference materials to comply to the fullest extent possible with recommendations of the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO Guide 35). A practical approach is described on the assumption that certifications will be normally be based on collaborative analysis programmes in which participating laboratories are preselected on the basis of performance in a proficiency testing programme or on the basis of other criteria of merit.     

A comparison of biological trends from four marine ecosystems: Synchronies, differences, and commonalities

Major features of four marine ecosystems were analyzed based on a broad range of fisheries-associated datasets and a suite of oceanographic surveys. The ecosystems analyzed included the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, the Norwegian/Barents Seas in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. We examined survey trends in major fish abundances, total system fish biomass, and zooplankton biomasses. We standardized each time series and examined trends and anomalies over time, using both time series and cross-correlational statistical methods. We compared dynamics of functionally analogous species from each of these four ecosystems. Major commonalities among ecosystems included a relatively stable amount of total fish biomass and the importance of large calanoid copepods, small pelagic fishes and gadids. Some of the changes in these components were synchronous across ecosystems. Major differences between ecosystems included gradients in the magnitude of total fish biomass, commercial fish biomass, and the timing of major detected events. This work demonstrates the value of comparative analysis across a wide range of marine ecosystems, suggestive of very few but none-the-less detectable common features across all northern hemisphere ocean systems.     

ISO Best Practices in Reference Material Certification and Use in Geoanalysis

The International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) has published many guides, or technical standards, of great value to analytical geochemists. Two of particular importance are Guide 33 (Uses of Certified Reference Materials) and Guide 35 (Certification of Reference Materials). Both were first developed in the 1980s and undergo regular review and updating by the Reference Materials Committee (REMCO) that operates within ISO. Recent revisions have focused on adding statistical rigour to both guides. Although this offers significant advantages for use by professional metrologists, there are consequent issues of comprehension by the analytical chemists who in fact have the greatest need of them. A major focus of Guide 35 is the development of reference material uncertainties that are in full compliance with the Guide on Measurement Uncertainty (GUM), jointly issued by ISO, IUPAC and others. Guide 35 details handling of uncertainty due to (1) degradation on the shelf and in transport, (2) sample heterogeneity and (3) inter‐method and inter‐laboratory bias, as well as within‐laboratory repeatability. The International Association of Geoanalysts has developed a protocol for reference material certification that applies Guide 35 to the specific needs of the geoanalytical community. The approach being taken by the IAG in developing GUM‐compliant uncertainties for its certified values is presented. Recommendations made in Guide 33 for how a laboratory should compare its own results with certified values in assessing laboratory accuracy are outlined. Additionally, the subject of misusing reference materials is discussed. The apparent misuse occurs because so few CRMs exist that meet critical measurement needs of geoanalytical laboratories and that also meet the rigorous metrological demands of the latest editions of the ISO Guides. All of the focus of the IAG certification programme has been to undertake certifications that would fill gaps in CRM availability and thus serve to limit this misuse.