An analytical solution for rapidly predicting post-fire peak streamflow for small watersheds in southern California

Following wildfires, the probability of flooding and debris flows increase, posing risks to human lives, downstream communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In southern California (USA), the Rowe, Countryman, and Storey (RCS) 1949 methodology is an empirical method that is used to rapidly estimate post-fire peak streamflow. We re-evaluated the accuracy of RCS for 33 watersheds under current conditions. Pre-fire peak streamflow prediction performance was low, where the average R² was 0.29 and average RMSE was 1.10 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year recurrence interval events, respectively. Post-fire, RCS performance was also low, with an average R² of 0.26 and RMSE of 15.77 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year events. We demonstrated that RCS overgeneralizes watershed processes and does not adequately represent the spatial and temporal variability in systems affected by wildfire and extreme weather events and often underpredicted peak streamflow without sediment bulking factors. A novel application of machine learning was used to identify critical watershed characteristics including local physiography, land cover, geology, slope, aspect, rainfall intensity, and soil burn severity, resulting in two random forest models with 45 and five parameters (RF-45 and RF-5, respectively) to predict post-fire peak streamflow. RF-45 and RF-5 performed better than the RCS method; however, they demonstrated the importance and reliance on data availability. The important parameters identified by the machine learning techniques were used to create a three-dimensional polynomial function to calculate post-fire peak streamflow in small catchments in southern California during the first year after fire (R² = 0.82; RMSE = 6.59 cms/km²) which can be used as an interim tool by post-fire risk assessment teams. We conclude that a significant increase in data collection of high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall intensity, streamflow, and sediment loading in channels will help to guide future model development to quantify post-fire flood risk.     

Continuous versus event‐based sampling: how many samples are required for deriving general hydrological understanding on Ecuador's páramo region?

As a consequence of the remote location of the Andean páramo, knowledge on their hydrologic functioning is limited; notwithstanding, these alpine tundra ecosystems act as water towers for a large fraction of the society. Given the harsh environmental conditions in this region, year‐round monitoring is cumbersome, and it would be beneficial if the monitoring needed for the understanding of the rainfall–runoff response could be limited in time. To identify the hydrological response and the effect of temporal monitoring, a nested (n = 7) hydrological monitoring network was set up in the Zhurucay catchment (7.53 km²), south Ecuador. The research questions were as follows: (1) Can event sampling provide similar information in comparison with continuous monitoring, and (2) if so, how many events are needed to achieve a similar degree of information? A subset of 34 rainfall–runoff events was compared with monthly values derived from a continuous monitoring scheme from December 2010 to November 2013. Land cover and physiographic characteristics were correlated with 11 hydrological indices. Results show that despite some distinct differences between event and continuous sampling, both data sets reveal similar information; more in particular, the monitoring of a single event in the rainy season provides the same information as continuous monitoring, while during the dry season, ten events ought to be monitored. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Timing and pace of ice-sheet withdrawal across the marine–terrestrial transition west of Ireland during the last glaciation

Understanding the pace and drivers of marine-based ice-sheet retreat relies upon the integration of numerical ice-sheet models with observations from contemporary polar ice sheets and well-constrained palaeo-glaciological reconstructions. This paper provides a reconstruction of the retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) from the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland during and following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It uses marine-geophysical data and sediment cores dated by radiocarbon, combined with terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide and optically stimulated luminescence dating of onshore ice-marginal landforms, to reconstruct the timing and rate of ice-sheet retreat from the continental shelf and across the adjoining coastline of Ireland, thus including the switch from a marine- to a terrestrially-based ice-sheet margin. Seafloor bathymetric data in the form of moraines and grounding-zone wedges on the continental shelf record an extensive ice sheet west of Ireland during the LGM which advanced to the outer shelf. This interpretation is supported by the presence of dated subglacial tills and overridden glacimarine sediments from across the Porcupine Bank, a westwards extension of the Irish continental shelf. The ice sheet was grounded on the outer shelf at ~26.8 ka cal bp with initial retreat underway by 25.9 ka cal bp. Retreat was not a continuous process but was punctuated by marginal oscillations until ~24.3 ka cal bp. The ice sheet thereafter retreated to the mid-shelf where it formed a large grounding-zone complex at ~23.7 ka cal bp. This retreat occurred in a glacimarine environment. The Aran Islands on the inner continental shelf were ice-free by ~19.5 ka bp and the ice sheet had become largely terrestrially based by 17.3 ka bp. This suggests that the Aran Islands acted to stabilize and slow overall ice-sheet retreat once the BIIS margin had reached the inner shelf. Our results constrain the timing of initial retreat of the BIIS from the outer shelf west of Ireland to the period of minimum global eustatic sea level. Initial retreat was driven, at least in part, by glacio-isostatically induced, high relative sea level. Net rates of ice-sheet retreat across the shelf were slow (62–19 m a⁻¹) and reduced (8 m a⁻¹) as the ice sheet vacated the inner shelf and moved onshore. A picture therefore emerges of an extensive BIIS on the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland, in which early, oscillatory retreat was followed by slow episodic retreat which decelerated further as the ice margin became terrestrially based. More broadly, this demonstrates the importance of localized controls, in particular bed topography, on modulating the retreat of marine-based sectors of ice sheets.     

SANARIS Project: A Satellite Network for Natural Risk Monitoring

A new satellite communication system specificallydesigned for low-rate data applications has beendeveloped and prototyped. A validation project isproposed to install a pilot network to be operated for6 months. One of the target markets related tovolcanoes, has been selected, so that a group of usersis integrated in the project. A specific applicationfor this market will be developed regarding dataacquisition, processing, storage and dissemination todistant users. The feasibility of using the newsatellite system to provide a new Eutelsat service forlow-rate data applications, will be evaluated from theperformance of the pilot network. The system ofautomatic acquisition, field storage and communicationwith the local control center is already functioning,as well as the circulation of information viaInternet. The development of the application andtransmission via satellite to distant users is stillin an evaluation phase for the volcanoes of Timanfaya(Lanzarote, Canary Island), Vesuvius (Naples) and SeteCidades Caldera (Sao Miguel, Azores Islands).     

The kerogen type, depositional environment and maturity, of the Irati Shale, Upper Permian of Paraná Basin, Southern Brazil

Two samples from the upper and lower horizons of the Irati oil shale of the Paraná Basin, Brazil were sampled in a single borehole, and analysed using organic petrography and geochemistry. The results are interpreted in terms of the kerogen type, maturity and depositional environment of the two horizons.Organic petrography shows the oil-shales to be composed of a mineral groundmass, mainly clay minerals, carbonate and pyrite, associated, and sometimes impregnated, with fluorescing organic material and disseminated phytoclasts. Humic material is fairly rare and mostly present as very small particles. The liptinitic particles are mostly alginite (A and B), sporinite and more rarely resinite. Reflectance measurements (upper seam = 0.34% R₀; lower seam = 0.40% R₀) indicate an equivalent rank of lignite/sub-bituminous coal (ASTM), i.e. immature with respect to oil and gas generation. Different organic geochemical methods (Rock-Eval pyrolysis, solvent extraction, GC and GC-MS) demonstrate both samples to be immature, rich oil-shales (100–114 kg/ton) containing Type I kerogen, of a dominantly bacterially-degraded algal origin deposited in a lacustrine environment. The presence of Botryococcus suggests deposition under fresh/brackish water conditions.A tentative interpretation of the extract and vitrinite reflectance data suggests a maximum paleo-burial of between 1.3 and 2.8 km for the analysed section of the Irati Formation.     

Use of Air-Decks to Reduce Subdrillings in Escondida Mine

This paper aims to show the results and comparison obtained from blasting using overdrilled blastholes and blasting using a bottom of the blasthole located air-deck. The effect of using a blasthole air-deck, on medium to low hardness rock found in the western area of the Escondida pit, helped maintain the required grade level even after loading with heavy equipment. Additional benefits include satisfactory fragmentation of the blasted material.     

Influence of land runoff on rates and agents of bioerosion of coral substrates

Annually large volumes of fresh water laden with sediment are washed down the Daintree River in North Queensland into the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. To investigate the effects of land runoff on bioerosion, samples of recently killed colonies of Porites were laid at 6 sites on a cross shelf transect from Snapper Island at the entrance to the river to Osprey Reef, approximately 328 km from the river mouth out in the Coral Sea. Rates and agents of bioerosion were determined over 4 years and inshore sites exhibited significantly lower rates of total bioerosion than the other sites. Offshore sites experienced high rates of bioerosion primarily due to grazing and internal bioerosion by macroborers such as sponges and bivalves was also important at some of these sites. Inshore sites were covered in heavy layers of silt which inhibited colonization and growth of microborers, primarily algae. This resulted in lower levels of grazing than at offshore sites. However the activity of macroborers (primarily sponges and bivalves) was often high at these sites. The macroboring communities differed between sites and over time and it is hypothesised that these site differences were due to different levels of terrestrial runoff. These results are compared with those from French Polynesia where contaminated terrestrial runoff greatly influenced rates and agents of bioerosion. However other factors such as overfishing may also play an important role in some locations.     

Metal speciation and environmental impact on sandy beaches due to El Salvador copper mine, Chile

Several coastal rocky shores in northern Chile have been affected by the discharges of copper mine tailings. The present study aims to analyze the chemical speciation of heavy metals in relation to the diversity of sessile species in the rocky intertidal benthic community on the northern Chilean coast, which is influenced by the presence of copper mine tailings. In particular, the chemical forms of Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in beach sediment samples collected in the area influenced by El Salvador mine tailings were studied using a sequential chemical extraction method. In general, all the elements present a maximum concentration in the area near the actual discharge point (Caleta Palito). With regard to Cu and Mn, the concentrations range between 7.2-985 and 746-22,739 microg/g respectively, being lower than background levels only in the control site of Caleta Zenteno. Moreover, the correlation coefficients highlight that Fe, Mn and Ni correlate significantly and positively in the studied area, showing a possible common, natural origin, whilst Cu shows a negative correlation with Fe, Mn and Ni. It could be possible that Cu has an anthropogenic origin, coming from mining activity in the area. Cd, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn are mostly associated with the residual phase, whilst Cu presents a different speciation pattern, as resulted from selective extractions. In fact, Cu is highly associated with organic and exchangeable phases in contaminated localities, whilst it is mainly bound to the residual phase in control sites. Moreover, our results, compared to local biological diversity, showed that those sites characterized by the highest metal concentrations in bioavailable phase had the lowest biodiversity.     

Effects of soil resistivity on currents induced on pipelines

The goal of cathodic protection is to prevent corrosion by maintaining buried pipelines at a constant potential with respect to the surrounding soil. In practice, however, the implementation is very complicated since many factors can contribute to the current flowing off the pipe. Design requires characterization of the parameters impacting the corrosion process, such as soil resistivity, size of the pipe and quality of the coating.In the present paper, we have studied the effect of geomagnetic fields on the pipe-induced currents considering it as an additional cause of corrosion. A theoretical method implemented to model the induced currents was tested in a previous work and the effect during disturbed days was quantified. This theoretical model indicated that the intensity of the current induced in a pipeline by the varying geomagnetic field depends on the intensity and rate of change of the field and the electrical resistivity of the soil. This induced current is in equilibrium with the host current and there is no current drainage between the pipeline and the host until, along the length of the pipeline, the host resistivity becomes different. At that point, current must flow between the pipe and host in order to establish a new equilibrium. It is this drainage current, flowing between the pipeline and the host, which causes corrosion problems.Following these results, experimental tests were performed in Tierra del Fuego. In this zone, a geophysical study was made to determine the discontinuities in soil resistivities and simultaneous measurements of the geomagnetic field and the drainage of current were recorded at different sites. The results obtained from the correlation of the data are consistent with the theoretical predictions.