中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态

从地壳运动与应变的角度给出了活动地块的定义,根据中国大陆及周边地区最近几年GPS观测得到的由1598个GPS站速度组成的统一速度场,估计了各个活动地块的运动与应变参数,分析了各个活动地块的运动与应变状态。中国大陆各地块存在一致的向东运动分量,但其南北分量是不一致的。西部地块存在一致的向北运动分量,东部地块存在一致的向南运动分量。在90°E以东,从喜马拉雅地块向NE方向,各地块的运动方向按顺时针方向旋转,各地块的运动速率是不相同的。从总体上看是西部大、东部小,南部大、北部小,西部大约是东部的3～4倍。各地块主压应变方向的空间分布是不相同的。在90°E以西各地块的主应变方向基本上为SN向,在青藏高原的东北部各地块的主压应变方向基本为NE向,在青藏高原东南部各地块的主压应变方向绕喜马拉雅构造东端顺时针方向旋转。各地块的主应变与剪应变率也是不同的,其中喜马拉雅、天山地块的主压和最大剪应变率最高,其次是拉萨、羌塘、滇西南、祁连与川滇地块。东部各地块的应变率较小。根据应变状态推测,喜马拉雅地块南北向的缩短速率为(15.2±1.5)mm/a,仍然是现今构造活动最强烈的地区,其次是天山地块,天山地块南北向的缩短速率为(10.1±0.9)mm/a。这两个地块目前仍处于隆升状态,从面应变看,面膨胀在中国大陆占优势,东部基本都是膨胀区,在西部面压缩与面膨胀从南向北相间分布。中国大陆的大多数东西向或近东西向断裂两侧的相对运动都是左旋或类似左旋走滑型的,大多数南北向断裂两侧的相对运动都是右旋或类似右旋走滑型的。GPS测定的阿尔金断裂中部的左旋走滑速为(4.8±1.3)mm/a,鲜水河断裂的左旋走滑速为(9.8±2.2)mm/a。地块边界断裂带的运动为地块运动创造了条件,地块及其边界的运动是协调一致的统一的,各个地块的活动程度是不相同的,统计检验结果表明,大多数地块之间的相对运动是显著的与非常显著的,这证明活动地块是客观存在的,喜马拉雅、拉萨、天山、羌塘和滇西南是活动最强烈的地块,中蒙、中朝西、阿拉善和华南是较稳定的地块,印度、太平洋、菲律宾板块与欧亚板块的互相作用力是中国大陆地块运动的主要驱动力。青藏高原地壳物质在印度板块NNE向的强烈推挤下,向NNE和NE方向运动,由于受到北部、东北部和东部地块的阻挡,经高原的东南部向印度洋方向运移,     

地震学中的统计学原理（二）

3.4 模型检验模型检验即检查选用模型的特征与实际样本特征是否一致。选择模型与检验模型采用不相交的数据集较为理想。在做不到这一点的地方,检验需要考虑到模型已被调整到尽可能与数据密切拟合的事实,至少在某种意义上如此。     

青海北祁连区中三叠世孢粉的发现及其意义

祁连县俄博乡土圈沟、大擦汗沟、柯柯里等剖面的粉砂岩、砂质页岩、泥质页岩岩层之中，首次发现丰富的孢粉化石，计39属74种(其中包括1新种)，疑源类8属9种。推出Verrucosisporites(8．6％)-Triadispora(2％)-Trematosphaeridium(7．2％)的孢粉组合。该孢粉组合面貌应归于中三叠世Anisian期。它的发现为该套地层的进一步研究与合理归属提供了最新成果。     

Movement and strain conditions of active blocks in the Chinese mainland

The definition of active block is given from the angles of crustal deformation and strain. The movement and strain parameters of active blocks are estimated according to the unified velocity field composed of the velocities at 1598 GPS stations obtained from GPS measurements carried out in the past years in the Chinese mainland and the surrounding areas. The movement and strain conditions of the blocks are analyzed. The active blocks in the Chinese mainland have a consistent E-trending movement component, but its N and S components are not consistent. The blocks in the western part have a consistent N-trending movement and the blocks in the eastern part have a consistent S-trending movement. In the area to the east of 90°E, that is the area from Himalayas block towards NE, the movement direction of the blocks rotates clockwisely and the movement rates of the blocks are different. Generally, the movement rate is large in the west and south and small in the east and north with a difference of 3 to 4 times between the rates in the west and east. The distributions of principal compressive strain directions of the blocks are also different. The principal strain of the blocks located to the west of 90oE is basically in the SN direction, the principal compressive strain of the blocks in the northeastern part of Qingzang plateau is roughly in the NE direction and the direction of principal compressive strain of the blocks in the southeastern part of Qingzang plateau rounds clockwisely the east end of Himalayas structure. In addition, the principal strain and shear strain rates of the blocks are also different. The Himalayas and Tianshan blocks have the largest principal compressive strain and the maximum shear strain rate. Then, Lhasa, Qiangtang, Southwest Yunnan (SW Yunnan), Qilian and Sichuan-Yunan (Chuan-Dian) blocks followed. The strain rate of the blocks in the eastern part is smaller. The estimation based on the stain condition indicates that Himalayas block is still the area with the most intensive tectonic activity and it shortens in the NS direction at the rate of 15.2±1.5 mm/a. Tianshan block ranks the second and it shortens in the NS direction at the rate of 10.1±0.9 mm/a. At present, the two blocks are still uprising. It can be seen from superficial strain that the Chinese mainland is predominated by superficial expansion. Almost the total area in the eastern part of the Chinese mainland is expanded, while in the western part, the superficial compression and expansion are alternatively distributed from the south to the north. In the Chinese mainland, most EW-trending or proximate EW-trending faults have the left-lateral or left-lateral strike-slip relative movements along both sides, and most NS-trending faults have the right-lateral or right-lateral strike-slip relative movements along both sides. According to the data from GPS measurements the left-lateral strike-slip rate is 4.8±1.3 mm/a in the central part of Altun fault and 9.8±2.2 mm/a on Xianshuihe fault. The movement of the fault along the block boundary has provided the condition for block movement, so the movements of the block and its boundary are consistent, but the movement levels of the blocks are different. The statistic results indicate that the relative movement between most blocks is quite significant, which proves that active blocks exist. Himalayas, Tianshan, Qiangtang and SW Yunnan blocks have the most intensive movement; China-Mongolia, China-Korea (China-Korea), Alxa and South China blocks are rather stable. The mutual action of India, Pacific and Philippine Sea plates versus Eurasia plate is the principal driving force to the block movement in the Chinese mainland. Under the NNE-trending intensive press from India plate, the crustal matter of Qingzang plateau moves to the NNE and NE directions, then is hindered by the blocks located in the northern, northeastern and eastern parts. The crustal matter moves towards the Indian Ocean by the southeastern part of the plateau.     

甘肃小西弓金矿床成矿物质来源和含矿流体运移轨迹同位素示踪

小西弓矿床是北山地区最重要的金矿床。金矿化在中元古代糜棱岩化绿片岩和长英片岩中呈脉状或蚀变岩团块产出，并且同海西期花岗岩类侵入岩体具密切时空联系。详细的硫、氧、氢和铅同住素研究结果表明，金矿床成矿物质和含矿流体主要来自海西期花岗岩类侵入岩、中元古代变质岩地层与大气降水。晚古生代时期，哈萨克斯坦-北山与塔里木板块沿柳园-大奇山深大断裂发生碰撞与地体拼贴，其中挤压与伸展转换期的构造变形作用不仅致使前海西期岩体(层)发生深熔，形成花岗质熔浆，而且诱发含矿流体向低温与低压构造破碎带运移，进而形成小西弓金矿床。     

气象卫星遥感预警福建省森林火灾

应用NOAA卫星遥感资料，研究森林防火期内森林植被的干燥指数的变化，结合分析相应的森林火灾的资料，做出福建省森林火险等级空间分布，应用福建省地理信息系统，根据高火险等级的地理位置，预警该地可能发生森林火灾。     

滞后平均法（LAF）在热带气旋路径集合预报中的应用

本文用-正压模式，采用滞后平均法(LAF)对2000年热带气旋进行路径集合预报试验，并与基于热带气旋初始结构扰动的集合预报方法进行了比较分析，结果表明LAF方法对热带气旋路径预报具有较好的改进作用。但LAF的集合预报效果受模式本身误差的影响，在完美模式的假设下，LAF集合预报相对于控制试验的技巧水平20～40％。     

淇、卫河流域“96·8”致洪暴雨过程的数值模拟

应用LASGREMM模式 ,对淇、卫河流域“96·8”致洪暴雨过程进行了模拟预报分析。结果表明 ,LAS GREM模式不仅能较准确地预报淇、卫河流域暴雨落区 ,而且可以进一步分析天气过程的特点及演变情况     

由1990年共和7.0级地震震后垂直形变求得的地球介质有效弛豫时间和粘滞系数

１９９０年４月２６日青海共和７．０级地震的震后垂直形变速率具有典型的指数型衰减特征．本文根据Ｏｋａｄａ弹性位错地表垂直位移表达式，利用对应原理导出了其标准线性固体粘弹性解．通过引入“地球有效弛豫时间和有效粘度”的概念，进一步导出了由震后垂直形变求地球有效弛豫时间和粘度的简单公式，该公式与发震断层的位错参数无关．反演结果表明，共和震区地球介质的有效弛豫时间τ＝η／μ为２．６ａ，有效粘滞系数η为约１０１８Ｐａｓ．     

一次冰雹过程人工催化的数值模拟试验

利用二维雹云模拟济南地区１９９６年７月２４日出现的一次冰雹过程，模拟结果表明对雹云２６个主要微物理过程双参数化较细致地描述对流过程的热，动力反馈和微物理特点２。根据计算结果，对该次冰雹过程进行了ＡｇＩ催化试验，结果得出在云发展初期对暖底雹云实施高浓度的冰晶催化，可起到减少地面冰雹和增加地面降水的作用。