基于多元时间序列的Kn近邻预测模型

提出了一种基于多元时间序列的Ｋｎ近邻短期气候预测模型。该模型既保留了Ｋｎ近邻算法的优良特性，同时又考虑了气候系统有关状态量之间的物理关系和动力行为特性。用该模型对云南各区域的平均月雨量距平值进行预测试验，其对云南１９９１年５月～１９９８年６月的月雨量距平值预测检验的距平符号相关准确率为６３．５％，对云南１９９１～１９９８年的５月雨量距平值预测检验的距平符号相关准确率则可达到７０．０％。该模型的建立具有一定的实际业务应用价值。     

STUDY ON TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF THERMAL INFRARED REMOTE SENSING FOR ABRUPT GEOTHERMAL ANOMALY IN VOLCANIC REGION

Ｇｅｏｔｈｅｒｍａｌａｎｏｍａｌｙｉｓａｐｈｅｎｏｍｅｎｏｎｔｈａｔｕｎｄｅｒｇｒｏｕｎｄｔｅｍｐｅｒａｔｕｒｅａｎｄｇｅｏｔｈｅｒｍａｌｇｒａｄｉｅｎｔｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｓｍｕｃｈｍｏｒｅｉｎｔｈｅａｒｅａｔｈａｎｉｔｓｓｕｒｒｏｕｎｄｉｎｇｓ（Ｘｉａ，１９７９）．Ａｂｒｕｐｔｇｅｏｔｈｅｒｍａｌａｎｏｍａｌｙｍｅａｎｓｔｈａｔｕｎｄｅｒｇｒｏｕｎｄｔｅｍｐｅｒａｔｕｒｅｏｎｓｏｍｅｓｐｏｔｓａｓｗｅｌｌａｓｔｈｅａｆｆｅｃｔｅｄｔｅｍｐｅｒａｔｕｒｅｏｆｓｕｒｒｏｕｎｄｉｎｇａｒｅａａｂｒ…     

Triploidy induction with heat shocks toPenaeus chinensis and their effects on gonad development

Heat shocks effectively produced triploids inPenaeus chinensis. Fertilized eggs heat shocked (28–32°C) for 8 to 16 minutes, starting from 8 to 20 minutes after spawning, resulted in triploidy induction rates of 39%–75%. Several triploid populations were cultured to 10 cm. In a triploid population, two kinds of ovaries were observed. Histological examination showed apparent differences between these two kinds of ovaries, whereas among male shrimp, there were no such differences. Contribution No. 3465 from the Institute of Oceanology. Chinese Academy of Sciences. The study was supported by the International Foundation for Science, Asian Fisheries Society and Chinese Climbing Project PDB 6–2, and Chinese National 863 Project (No. 863-819-01-05).     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.     

Comparison of the effects of short-term UVB radiation exposure on phytoplankton photosynthesis in the temperate Changjiang and subtropical Zhujiang estuaries of China

We examined the effect of solar ultraviolet radiation B (UVB, 280–315 nm) on photosynthesis of natural phytoplankton assemblages in the temperate Changjiang River Estuary (CRE) in the East China Sea (ECS), and the subtropical Zhujiang River Estuary (ZRE) in the South China Sea (SCS) from August 2002 to April 2003. The short-term effect of UVB was assessed by exposing samples in quartz tubes/bottles to solar radiation under three treatments: (1) natural sunlight (NS) with UVB (NS-UVB); (2) photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, NS cut off UVB); and (3) NS with additional artificial UVB (NS + A-UVB). Solar UVB apparently inhibited phytoplankton photosynthesis rates. In the temperate CRE-ECS, solar UVB reduced surface phytoplankton photosynthesis by about 28% in August and February, while in the subtropical ZRE-SCS the inhibition was only 22% in September and October. In the CRE-ECS, phytoplankton in the stratified water column displayed stronger UVB inhibition when deeper water samples were exposed to surface UVB. Phytoplankton in the mixed water column did not show strong UVB inhibition, while light shift exposure of deeper phytoplankton in the same water column to surface light produced similar results, indicating that mixing moderates UVB effects. In the ZRE-SCS, surface phytoplankton showed greater photoinhibition in January (sunny). However, in April (cloudy), phytoplankton showed little UVB inhibition. Incubation for a short time without UVB showed a large increase in Chl a at two stations in the ZRE-SCS, but a large decrease at the other station in the presence of UVB. In contrast, in the CRE-ECS, a similar incubation experiment without UVB showed a decrease in Chl a, and small UVB inhibition of Chl a at two stations. Nutrient conditions might have played a role in the difference of UVB inhibition between the two regions as the ZRESCS had relatively high concentrations of all nutrients while PO₄ was only 0.21 μM at one of the CRE-ECS stations. The results suggest that phytoplankton in temperate waters would be more responsive to variation of UVB than ones in subtropical waters.     

Characterization of a new lectin involved in the protoplast regeneration of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bryopsis hypnoides</Emphasis>

A group of coenocytic marine algae differs from higher plants,whose totipotency depends on an intact cell(or protoplast).Instead,this alga is able to aggregate its extruded protoplasm in sea water and generate new mature individuals.It is thought that lectins play a key role in the aggregation process.We purified a lectin associated with the aggregation of cell organelles in Bryopsis hypnoides.The lectin was ca.27 kDa with a pI between pH 5 and pH 6.The absence of carbohydrate suggested that the lectin was ...     

Ingestion of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus plicatilis</Emphasis> under different microalgae conditions

The effects of four microalgae,Chlorella vulgaris,Platymonas helgolandicavar,Isochrysis galbana,and Nitzschia closterium on the grazing and filtering rates of the marine rotifer,Brachionus plicatilis,were evaluated under laboratory conditions.The grazing rates in separate cultures of the four microalga were as follows:C.vulgaris > P.helgolandicavar > I.galbana > N.closterium.However,the filtering rates occurred in the following order:P.helgolandicavar > N.closterium > C.vulgaris > I.galbana.A mixed diets ex...     

Study of Panjin wetlands along Bohai coast (II): Ecological water requirement of Shuangtaizi estuarine wetland

Shuangtaizi estuarine wetland along the Bohai Sea coast, the biggest bulrush wetland in the world, has been listed in ‘The Record of Important International Wetland Conservation District’. Taking the year of 2 000 as an example, the minimum, the most suitable and the maximum ecological water requirement of Shuangtaizi estuarine wetland are calculated in this paper based on both ecological theory and Geological Information System technology. In addition, the remote sensing technique is adopted in the data acquisition process. Moreover, the total water requirement and the unit area water requirement for different wetland types are obtained. The result is very important for water resources planning, ecological conservation and regional agriculture structure adjustment in Shuangtaizi. Meanwhile, this study can serve as a useful example for calculating the ecological water requirement in other similar estuarine wetlands.     

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