Petrogenesis of Na-rich paralava formed by methane flares associated with mud volcanism, Altyn-Emel National Park, Kazakhstan

High-Na slag-like rocks (paralava) with 4.5–11 % Na₂O from the Altyn-Emel mud volcanic field, Kazakhstan, are the products of melting of sediment + salt mixtures by methane flares associated with mud extrusion. The main minerals of the paralavas are diopside and wollastonite which have quench morphologies. Other high-temperature phases (crystallizing from melt and vapour phase) are tridymite, cristobalite, chlorapatite, alkali feldspar, pyrrhotite, native iron and silicon, iron phosphides, titanite, rutile, and carbon. The paralavas lack the Na–Ca silicates devitrite and combeite, but have high-Na and Na–K glasses that have not been homogenized despite low viscosities of <10^?3.5 Pa s. The large number of ignition foci in the Altyn-Emel mud volcano field indicates gas venting from small, shallow reservoirs. The methane flares are inferred to have been small and the fire events short-lived. Fires were extinguished once overpressure released during eruption, methane venting stopped and melted rocks rapidly quenched. The periodicity of eruptions and methane flaring most likely depends on the recurrence of earthquakes (M < 5) which are frequent in this tectonically active area.     

Natural analogue approaches to prediction of long-term behaviour of Ca<Subscript>2</Subscript>UO<Subscript>5</Subscript>∙2-3H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O X-phase: case study from Tulul Al Hammam site,Jordan

The Tulul Al Hammam area in central Jordan is an advantageous natural analogue site to study long-term U(VI) retention in ~?1 Ma old U-bearing combustion metamorphic marbles with clinker-like mineralogy exposed to prolonged supergene alteration for at least ~?100 kyr. The marbles contain abundant grains of high-temperature (ca. 800–850 °C) primary double Ca-U(VI) oxides (mainly Ca₃UO₆ and CaUO₄), which are commonly replaced by hydrated calcium uranates with various impurities (Si, Fe, Al and F). A more hydrous natural analogue of X-phase (Ca₂UO₅·2-3H₂O) occurs as a predominant secondary U compound after primary Ca-U(VI) oxides. The phase was studied by single-crystal XRD, SEM/EDX and electron microprobe (EPMA) analyses and Raman spectroscopy. It is a non-crystalline phase with a specific finger-like microtexture consisting of thin (no wider than 1–2 μm) lamellar particles. Its Raman spectrum shows a single strong band at 706–713 cm^?1, sometimes coexisting with up to three weak diffuse bands (ν ~?390, ~?540 and 1355–1400 cm^?1). The find of the natural X-phase (Ca₂UO₅·2-3H₂O) is evidence of its long-term stability in a natural environment. It proves explicitly that the compound Ca₂UO₅·nH₂O is a solubility-limiting phase in aged cements. The results have implications for geological disposal of radioactive wastes.     

Geochemical and Isotope Characteristics of Carbonates from Ejecta of Mud Volcanoes of the Kura Basin,Azerbaijan

Lithology and Mineral Resources - This paper is devoted to the vein and dispersed carbonates from ejecta of mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan. The vein calcites are morphologically diverse and related to...     

The inclusion of surface synoptic data in very short range predictions of convective events

Summary Predictor vectors, including upper air as well as surface data, were used for categorical forecasting convective events over a subregion of the Czech territory, and the effect of including surface variables in the predictor vector was examined. While upper air data were considered as Perfect Prognosis, the surface data were successively included according to the time of their origin. The forecasting technique was based on linear multiple regression with learning, and the accuracy of the forecast was measured by the Critical Success Index. The input data from the three May-September periods in 1989–91 were used, and the first year served as the learning set. The aerological data from TEMP 12 UTC, simulating Perfect Prognosis, were the source of the upper air predictors. The performance of all, upper air, surface and combined, predictors were evaluated and compared. It turned out that the improvement of prediction accuracy due to the inclusion of surface variables was not negligible. Significant improvements were made in the forecasts of thunderstorm occurrence between 18 and 24 UTC.     

Vulnerability of groundwater to acid deposition, Jizerské Mountains, northern Czech Republic: construction and reliability of a GIS-based vulnerability map

The area of the Jizerské Mountains in the northern part of the Czech Republic is known to have suffered from heavy acid atmospheric deposition which has led to mass extinction of the forest cover in apical parts of the mountains and to degradation of groundwater quality. A methodology for construction of groundwater vulnerability maps, using a Geographical Information System (GIS), has been developed as a tool for protecting the groundwater resources. The maps were constructed by using four subsidiary layers, each of which reflects a particular parameter that governs acidification. The factors that determine vulnerability are: (1) elevation above sea level, (2) morphology of the terrain, (3) areal extent and type of vegetation cover, and (4) lithology of the aquifer. A step-wise analysis and application of the data in each of the layers was accomplished to compare changes in the quality of groundwaters, and to obtain the best weighting factors for the individual parameters. Changes in alkalinity of the groundwater during the last 30 years were used as a test criterion. The vulnerability map should be a valuable tool to identify and outline areas most vulnerable to acidification and also areas considered for reforestation. Electronic Publication     

Skill of 6HR and 12HR thunderstorm forecasts based on assessment of larger-scale information

Summary The relationship between information, contained in aerological data from the European area, and a thunderstorm occurrence in the area of the Czech Republic was investigated with input data from the period of May–September 1989–1991. SYNOP reports from Czech ground stations were utilized to assess event occurrence. TEMP 00UTC and TEMP 12UTC reports from European stations were used to determine potential diagnostic predictors, and the TEMP00 data served as the input data set for the 12hr mesoscale model forecast to gain prognostic predictors. Each of the two diagnostic data sets from 00UTC and 12UTC and of the prognostic data set comprised about 400 predictors/predictand elements. The categorical forecast of thunderstorm occurrence, based on the application of linear regression and a simple version of pattern recognition, is discussed. The critical success index was determined for every type of forecast and used to assess forecast skill.     

Tests of data assimilation and data initialization for the purposes of short-range weather forecast

Summary The initialization and assimilation of input data were studied and tested by the adiabatic version of a simple numerical model for short-range weather forecast.The initialization was based on the utilization of a digital filter technique. The method succeeded in removing high-frequency oscillations from prognostic pressure fields. However, excessive smoothing deteriorated the accuracy of the prediction at the lowest levels of the atmosphere.The data assimilation was performed using the nudging method. Three versions of the nudging method in a splitting scheme were tested. The inclusion of the assimilation at the end of the integration step proved to be the best. The assimilation damped the oscillations of prognostic surface pressure fields and slightly improved the pressure prediction at the lowest levels of the atmosphere.     

MOS based forecast of 6-hourly area precipitation

A statistical post-processing methodology for application to numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs for precipitation forecast is proposed. The post-processing is based on the model output statistics approach. The statistical relationships are described by the multiple linear regression model, which is complemented by an iteration procedure to further correct the regression outputs. Prognostic fields of the ALADIN/LACE (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational/Limited Area Modelling in Central Europe) NWP model are used for the forecast of 6-hourly areal precipitation amounts at 15 river basins. The NWP model integration starts at 00UTC and forecasts are calculated for lead times of +12, +18, +24 and +30 hours. The post-processing models are developed separately for each lead time and for separate warm (April to September) and cool (October to March) seasons. The forecasts are focused on large precipitation amounts. Using all the combinations, data from four years (1999–2002) are divided into calibration data (3 years), where the models are developed, and verification data. The models are evaluated by examining the root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias, and correlation coefficient (CC) on the verification data samples. The results show that the additional iteration procedure increases the forecast accuracy for a given range of precipitation amounts and simultaneously does not deteriorate the bias, a situation which can arise when negative regression outputs are set to zero. The post-processing method improves the forecast of the NWP model in terms of RMSE and CC. For large precipitation amounts during the summer season, the decrease of RMSE reaches 10% to 20% depending upon the applied method of verification. For the cool season, the decrease is somewhat smaller (7% to 15%).