Luminescence and other spectroscopic properties of purple and green Cr-clinochlore

For the first time ever, the luminescence spectra of Cr³⁺ centers in two chlorite crystals are presented. Chromium ions occupy the strong crystal-field site M4 in the brucite sheet and the intermediate crystal-field site in the inner octahedral sheet for purple and green chlorite, respectively. We discuss the influence of an effective positive charge on the Cr³⁺ ion and an effective negative charge of ligands on the differences in the values of the Dq and B parameters. It is concluded that the presence of Fe²⁺ ions and other point defects, as well as concentration quenching, causes the very short luminescence lifetimes of chromium ions.     

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

From Kyoto via Moscow to nowhere?

Abstract

Since the World Climate Change Conference held in the autumn of 2003 in Moscow, Russian Federation, the fate of international climate policy architecture designed around the Kyoto Protocol hangs in the balance. After the withdrawal of the USA from the Kyoto Protocol, the condition of its ratification cannot be met without the Russian Federation. There has been a considerable uncertainty as to Russia's intentions regarding ratification of Kyoto. In this contribution, an attempt is made to identify the Russian motives and concerns, and explain their attitudes regarding the Kyoto Protocol. Pressures against and for ratification are discussed. Finally, a few comments are made about the future of the efforts to solve the global environmental problem of protecting the Earth's climate.     

A Study of the Stable Boundary Layer Based on a Single-Column K-Theory Model

We document numerical experiments with a single-column, high-resolution model of the stable boundary layer. The model resolves the logarithmic layer, and does not require inverting the Monin–Obukhov similarity functions in order to calculate the surface fluxes. The turbulence closure is based on the K-theory approach, with a new form of stability functions of the Richardson number, evaluated by using the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) and the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) data. A comparison with two, high-resolution large-eddy simulation models shows very good agreement. The reported numerical experiments test the effects of shear, surface cooling, the Coriolis parameter, subsidence, and baroclinicity. The time evolution of the drag coefficient, the heat-transfer coefficient, and the cross-isobar angle is also evaluated.     

The Height Correction of Similarity Functions in the Stable Boundary Layer

Empirical similarity functions of the Richardson number, obtained from bin-averaged data in the lower part of the stable boundary layer, show an undesired dependence on height at which the observations are collected. A correction of this flaw is proposed and tested by employing the neutral mixing length l _o as a similarity scale for height. The function of height describing l _o is assumed to be linear in the surface layer, and approaching a specified value with increasing height. The modification does not alter the dependence of similarity functions on the Richardson number, and is shown to be supported by the Cooperative Atmospheric-Surface Exchange Study-1999 (CASES-99) data.     

Assessment of Gradient-Based Similarity Functions in the Stable Boundary Layer Derived from a Large-Eddy Simulation

Most of our knowledge on forest-edge flows comes from numerical and wind-tunnel experiments where canopies are horizontally homogeneous. To investigate the impact of tree-scale heterogeneities (\({>}1\) m) on the edge-flow dynamics, the flow in an inhomogeneous forest edge on Falster island in Denmark is investigated using large-eddy simulation. The three-dimensional forest structure is prescribed in the model using high resolution helicopter-based lidar scans. After evaluating the simulation against wind measurements upwind and downwind of the forest leading edge, the flow dynamics are compared between the scanned forest and an equivalent homogeneous forest. The simulations reveal that forest inhomogeneities facilitate flow penetration into the canopy from the edge, inducing important dispersive fluxes in the edge region as a consequence of the flow spatial variability. Further downstream from the edge, the forest inhomogeneities accentuate the canopy-top turbulence and the skewness of the wind-velocity components while the momentum flux remains unchanged. This leads to a lower efficiency in the turbulent transport of momentum within the canopy. Dispersive fluxes are only significant in the upper canopy. Above the canopy, the mean flow is less affected by the forest inhomogeneities. The inhomogeneities induce an increase in the mean wind speed that was found to be equivalent to a decrease in the aerodynamic height of the canopy. Overall, these results highlight the importance of forest inhomogeneities when looking at canopy–atmosphere exchanges in forest-edge regions.     

全球变暖导致洪水风险增加——长江洪水前景分析

近期在很多地方洪水越来越频繁且破坏性更大.20世纪90年代以来全球大洪水造成社会经济财产巨大损失,30次大洪水每次总损失额均超过10×10⁸美元.1990-1998年的9a时间的大洪水爆发的次数比1950-1985年期间Ma大洪水次数还要多.近年来中国大陆也遭受了若干重大洪水灾害(包括1996和1998年两次大的财产损失).与气候变率和变化相关的洪水灾害和易爆发程度的显著增加,这是当前最紧迫的问题.随着气温升高大气中持水量也增加,因此大规模强度的降水的可能性也增大.己观测到高而集中的大降水事件而且这种趋势在未来气候变暖条件下可能增加,大降水事件的增加是洪灾增加的必然条件.当然也有一些其它的非气象因素加剧洪灾的发生,比如土地利用变化(森林砍伐、城市化)导致土壤持水能力下降,径流系数增加;此外,人类占据了洪泛区,可能导致洪水损失增大.另外物质财富在洪泛区的积聚也导致了洪灾损失增加.毫无疑问,由于人类活动和气候的共同作用,未来洪水风险在很多地方可能增加.洪水易爆发程度被认为是暴露系数和调节能力的函数,而且在许多地方所有这些变量都可能增加.而随着暴露系数比人类调节能力增加快,因此洪水易爆发程度增大.然而,要完全从径流变化中区分气候因素导致的强烈自然变率还是直接的人为环境变化是很困难的.由于使用不同的假定情景和不同的气候模型,得到的未来环境的预测结果差异也很大.IPCC第三次评估报告中广泛讨论了气候变化与洪水之间的关系.IPCC第三次评估报告警告说,在东亚季风区非常湿润的季风季节出现的可能性非常大,进而会导致相应地区洪水风险增加.本文总结了迄今为此可收集到的有关长江洪水的资料.利用一些案例来分析研究未来假定情景下气候对水文的影响,并对东亚地区的模拟结果进行了讨论.     

Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Comparative study of different wavelets for developing parsimonious Volterra model for rainfall-runoff simulation

Although the Volterra models are non-parsimonious ones, they are being used because they can mimic dynamics of complex systems. However, applying and identification of the Volterra models using data may result in overfitting problem and uncertainty. In this investigation we evaluate capability of different wavelet forms for decomposing and compressing the Volterra kernels in order to overcome this problem by reducing the number of the model coefficients to be estimated and generating smooth kernels. A simulation study on a rainfall?runoff process over the Cache River watershed showed that the method performance is successful due to multi-resolution capacity of the wavelet analysis and high capability of the Volterra model. The results also revealed that db2 and sym2 wavelets have the same high potential in improving the linear Volterra model performance. However, QS wavelet was more successful in yielding smooth kernels. Moreover, the probability of overfitting while identifying the nonlinear Volterra model may be less than the linear model.